Andres Chavez

Reflection...on #3 specifically. I was speaking with someone who was discouraged and thinking of quitting trading earlier this week and I said in no uncertain terms that 'everyone is going to have that moment or moments' where they think they aren't cut out for this or maybe it's not worth it. This is where #3 is key and not looking at where you are currently but where you are headed. I had intense moments of personal doubt in the early years and I was 'doing well' in the market but I still had those moments because I didn't make as much as I wanted or I hadn't hit my unrealistic short term goals etc. Saban says 'great performers stick to their vision, no matter the conditions.' I'm SO glad I did as every now and again you have to dust yourself off (emotionally) and get back up and keep going. I was in a small DD earlier this year and annoyed about it so I spent more time alone, in silence/solitude, prayer and any negative emotions I had would quickly start to fade and I could see the horizon again of where I was headed. When I teach people to paddle/rudder a canoe (I lead occasional canoe trips when I need extra silence/solitude)I always tell them to keep their paddle in the water and pick a spot way off on the horizon to navigate towards and gradually adjust while digging. For me it became about making good risk v reward decisions and nothing else. I was going to ride or die trusting that if I compounded small successes over time it would yield big results. You don't bury your head and become an ostrich when things are bad you look at where your feet are, make sure they are still under you and pointed in the general direction you want to head. Then you simply take the next step. No idea but my sense is someone out there needs to hear this because markets/trading has a way of pressing on you emotionally to get you to surrender to feelings that aren't going to get you to your ultimate goal.

This would tell me that there's still a LOT of people trying to cherry pick this bottom. Real bottoms tend to happen when people are either scared out of their minds and running for the hills or just plain worn out. We haven't had enough time for the latter and this would suggest not enough fear for the former. Incidentally I spoke to a good friend who used to run one of the worlds largest trading desks for a major bank and he said he's quite nervous. I love hearing stuff like that (from a contrarian standpoint) but when I hear it from someone older/wiser than I it reinforces why I don't EVER catch falling knives or take big positions when vol is spiking.