Did some digging on UK GDP numbers on plane. Digging into the ONS three decade monthly GDP spreadsheet: annualised growth of 2.7% from Jan-August is the strongest start (first two-thirds) to a year since 2017 (excluding the pandemic bounce back) And Q3 is heading for about 0.7%, even if September is flat... Revisions are possible but they have been up in recent months. By some way strongest start to a year since COVID. Can see why it’s termed strong by multiple city economists. Especially given the Iran War headwinds. Perhaps they are just delayed by energy price cap and slow pass through of higher mortgage rates, but the idea the UK would be “hardest hit” has turned out to be nonsense so far. More widely it is a return to the sort of normal growth pre Brexit/ financial crisis.

NEW UK GDP in August now up 0.7% on the 3 month measure… rises by 0.1% in the single month, defying expectation of a fallback after strong July. June also revised up. Heading for a decent Q3.

“The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively and we see the UK in that sense enjoying a bit of a better growth prospect”. IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva just again singled out UK for its plans to reduce annual borrowing, amid more general warnings that advanced economies should “get house in order”, after the forecast figures released yesterday. Also said growth is not enough for US to reduce rising borrowing…

UK Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1… Pretty solid again, especially given the circumstances of Hormuz blockage, rising energy prices and generalised geopolitical uncertainty. GDP per head up 0.4% in q2, and monthly GDP up 0.3% in June… Service sector growth, especially 3.7% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (possibly AI investment)… no mention of a weather/ world cup effect… but consumer confidence ticked up (less negative) in this time acc to GFK NOP UK economy outperforming the “vibes” especially on here, can be seen in some other figures.