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My YouTube channel is where I work things out in public: the charts, the series and the streams. Memberships are now open. If you'd like to back it, joining is the simplest way, and members get my Daily Précis and Sunday Night Live in the Community tab.
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#BTC - The average ETF holder is in at $77k and price is $68.5k, so that crowd is 11% under water. That's not a crash signal on its own, but every bounce towards $77k now runs into people who just want their money back. #Bitcoin
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have traded for almost three years. Over that period, it's estimated that the average Bitcoin cost basis for investors is $77,000. Given the current price of $68,500, that's an 11% loss. What happens when fed up investors decide to cut their losses and move on?
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Forward P/E at its 35-year average is a decent answer to the bubble crowd. The catch is rates: those averages weren't set with the market pricing more Fed hikes after a third hot CPI. Cheap only stays cheap if yields behave. #SPX #Nasdaq
Cheapest bubble ever. Forward P/E and PEG ratios are hovering around their 35-year historical averages.
zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…
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Surplus in crude, shortage in diesel and jet. That's why WTI is still sat near $88 with a 'glut' headline on the wire. Crude only properly cools once refiners stop paying up for every barrel. #Oil #OOTT
BREAKING: The global oil market swung into a surplus in October thanks to "lofty" lofty Persian Gulf exports "despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker", according to the @IEA.
But -- and this is crucial -- "the severe tightness in product supply, especially for diesel, remains the overriding concern," the IEA added.
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$NVDA - Yesterday I said I doubt it'll ever be cheaper and went long 160. This morning it's 168.80 pre-market, about 5.5% higher, and the 148.80 flush low is well behind us. Holding above 160 keeps it tidy. 🙂
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Join us for a live chat - on now: youtube.com/live/Z6bKs2mmf1Q…
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A tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, and Tehran wants 7 conditions met before it'll even set the agenda for talks. Hard to price a quick deal off that. #Oil #OOTT
Have to say that I thought the crude oil market has been way too optimistic about a quick settlement with Iran. Keep your seat belts strapped on tightly.
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Landed crude down 35-40% at the refinery gate is how a supply scare cures itself. Refiners are fat and happy (Citgo just posted its best quarter ever), and cheap feedstock is what eventually builds the floor. #Oil #OOTT
Adding the combined fall in benchmark oil prices, physical differentials, and freight costs, global "landed" oil prices at the refinery gate are down 35-40% since a peak around Sep. 15th.
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#Silver failed trend line break and heading into the abyss. Those who suggested using logarithmic charts (where the TL was not broken) were spot on, 100%, in this event. Good on ya' 😀 Watch: youtu.be/sy6KfSmL2Aw
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#Gold appears to be heading towards the mid to low 3000's. See analysis here: youtu.be/sy6KfSmL2Aw
Brent down 18% and diesel still tight tells you crude was carrying a fear premium, but the products are carrying a real shortage. Fear fades fast, refinery problems don't. Diesel is the one to watch. #Oil #Brent
Oil down, but energy markets remain far from normal. Brent has slumped 18% this month as Middle East supply recovers, yet diesel and LNG remain tight.
Meanwhile, energy futures have delivered exceptional YTD returns, helped by backwardation. The market is learning to live with "no war, no peace", but the risk of renewed escalation remains.
#Oil #Energy #Commodities social.saxo/bp4hm07 via @saxobank
#NatGas - Yesterday I added to the short at 3.379, a few ticks off the 3.387 top. Overnight it slid to 3.177. Now back around 3.28. Batty Natty doing Batty Natty things. 🎯
#NatGas - Added to my short at 3.379 this afternoon. The top printed at 3.387, a whisker above my fill 🎯 Now back at 3.27 and the RSI has rolled over from overbought. 🙂
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#NVDA - We are at 162, the lower Bollinger and the breakout zone. I think it's a DCA buy for sure. Watch: youtu.be/sy6KfSmL2Aw
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