NiftyThriftyChemist

NEW: Today in Iran's Protest Movement: The regime has likely determined that the current protest movement represents an extremely dire security threat, and the regime has intensified its crackdown accordingly, including by taking the rare step of using the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces to suppress protests in at least one province. Protest activity in Iran has expanded dramatically in both rate and magnitude since January 7, including in major cities like Tehran and in northwestern Iran. The protests have also expanded to Kurdish-populated provinces. Iranian leaders have long-standing concerns about Kurdish separatism and militancy in the western and northwestern provinces. The regime used the IRGC Ground Forces to suppress protests in at least Kermanshah Province and possibly other provinces on January 8. This is a rare step; the regime only deployed the IRGC Ground Forces once during the Mahsa Amini protests, but it did so in Kurdish-populated areas. The regime arrested several security forces members on January 8 who reportedly refused orders to fire at protesters, according to a Norway-based human rights organization. Should this trend expand it could cause major bandwidth constraints that would further limit the regime’s ability to suppress protests. The regime relies on the IRGC Ground Forces in the most extreme circumstances, during which the regime tends to approach protests as an insurgency rather than gatherings of aggrieved citizens. The use of the IRGC Ground Forces could indicate bandwidth constraints among security forces in addition to a shift in how the regime perceives the protests, however.