ArB retweeted
The top window is the premium/discount for the Sprott gold trust fund; the bottom window is the daily GDX. We noted with blue lines and shaded green areas when the discount for the Sprott gold trust fund reached minus 2.25 or lower. This chart goes back to mid 2019. In all cases when the discount reached minus 2.25 or lower, GDX was at least at a short term low if not a major low. Yesterday the discount closed at -2.82; suggests the consolidation that began back in mid August is near ending and the next rally phase is about to begin
ArB retweeted
Currency traders are excited about the breakout above supposed resistance in the Dollar Index, and the small "non-reportable" traders of US Dollar Index futures are now net long in a big way. This does not usually work out well for them.
ArB retweeted
NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator as of March 12 is now as oversold as what we saw with the April 2025 tariff crash.
ArB retweeted
A Zweig Breadth Thrust is obviously not happening now, but Thursday's negative breadth provided the setup for one to potentially happen over the next 2 weeks. The first criterion is A/(A+D) going below 0.40, which marks an oversold condition to bounce from.
ArB retweeted
Any #Fed member who isn’t concerned about the clear upward trend in secular #inflation expectations probably isn’t focusing on data.
ArB retweeted
As noted in both my Daily Edition and my twice monthly newsletter, the small "non-reportable" traders in the weekly COT Report have been aggressively positioned for gold to go higher. The market usually likes to punish these small specs, and is doing so today. mcoscillator.com/market_repo…
ArB retweeted
Don’t celebrate the death of #Inflation just yet. #NFIB Small Biz Pricing Plans leads headline #CPI and they’re NOT suggesting lower inflation.
ArB retweeted
This is a useful gauge of how far we still are from bubble territory in gold and the mining sector, in my view.
Together, they currently represent about 5% of total global assets.
That is approximately 7–5 times below the highs reached in prior cycles.
Keep in mind that today’s debt imbalances are far worse than at any other time in history.
ArB retweeted
🦔Meta is hiding $30 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet using special purpose vehicles, echoing the financial engineering that triggered Enron's collapse and the 2008 mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need $800 billion from private credit in off-balance-sheet deals by 2028. UBS notes AI debt building at $100 billion per quarter "raises eyebrows for anyone that has seen credit cycles."
The Structure
Off-balance-sheet debt through SPVs or joint ventures is becoming the standard for AI data center deals. Morgan Stanley structured Meta's $30 billion in an SPV tied to Blue Owl Capital, making it easier to raise another $30 billion in corporate bonds. Musk's xAI is pursuing a $20 billion SPV deal where its only exposure is paying rent on Nvidia chips via a 5-year lease. Google backstops crypto miners' data center debt, recording them as credit derivatives.
My Take
This is 2008-style financial engineering repackaged for AI. The key difference from the dot-com era is growth was financed with equity then. Now there's rapid capex growth driven by debt kept off balance sheet. When chips estimated to last five to six years may be obsolete in three, and companies structure deals where their only exposure is short-term leases, that's hidden leverage creating the opacity that preceded past crises. Meta keeping $30 billion off its balance sheet while UBS warns about $100 billion quarterly AI debt buildup shows the pattern I've been documenting where leverage accumulates outside traditional visibility.
Hedgie🤗
ArB retweeted
Secular consumer #inflation #expectations are accelerating and financial conditions are very easy. Yet #politics is still leading the #Fed to continue cutting rates.
ArB retweeted
The Fed preparing to cut rates while commodities are up 15% YoY is the clearest example of financial repression.
Inflation is re-accelerating, yet policy is turning looser.
As Dalio once said, “cash is trash” — never felt truer than today.
ArB retweeted
Freddie is looking down and giving y'all a standing ovation. That's spectacular!😍💗
The most INSANE Bohemian Rhapsody Flashmob you will ever see!!
With 30 musicians and singers in the STREET of Paris 😍
Cre : Julien Cohen Pianist
ArB retweeted
Households’ #inflation expectations are clearly at a new level. If the #Fed cuts rates and there’s not much higher unemployment constraining wages, might it be the 1970s redux?
ArB retweeted
The reason why it is important to understand this relationship is that we are going to hear that the Trump administration has not stopped food inflation. But to stop food inflation right now, what the president would need to do right now is stop gold's rise 15 months ago. And he's not in charge of that, nor capable of doing that.
ArB retweeted
The 2-year has been proclaiming this for a couple of years now, but the 400 PhDs are too smart to listen. Fed now could cut 3/4 of a percentage point, and they would still be behind. The Fed creates problems when they get stubborn, and don't listen to the 2-year.
ArB retweeted
The bottom window is the 18 ma of the Advance/Decline for GDX and next higher window is the 18 ma of the up down volume for GDX. This chart goes back to 2014. We marked the times with red lines when both indicators reached +40 (bottom indicator reached 39.48 yesterday and current reading on other indicator is 44.99). What happens next is sometimes a mild consolidation before another surge higher that cans last 3 to 6 months. This is a rare occurrence as it has happened five times (not counting the current event) since 2014. Of the five times it occurred there was one failure in April 4 2023 (noted on chart); so that works out to be an 80% chance the current market will produce a surge in the coming weeks that may last 3 to 6 months. Want point out that the mild consolidation can last several weeks. We are thinking the senior sector may rest; where the junior sector will perform. This information suggests no top of any significant for GDX.
ArB retweeted
Pay attention to who is completely okay with funding terrorism in the Senate
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ArB retweeted
One of my favorite slides from my new #keynote 👇
History shows: every Golden Decade starts with gold… but the second half is when silver & miners steal the show. 🚀✨
