#bitcoin #lightning ⚡ — #cypherpunkrock — #nostr/#plebstr: npub1vdxl3erz083ecnnzq6apuhu6rq2fmjhvrtg45jm2myz49lwta5fqrn27wn
Prague
Joined August 2021
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- Followers150
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Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
The smartest people I know are selling their real estate investments for Bitcoin.
Real estate's 30-year bull run was built on three things. Cheap money, rising wages and a growing population.
All three are reversing.
Government bond yields are rising across most of the developed world, AI threatens the salaries people borrow against and birth rates are collapsing.
When you can't leverage your income, you can't bid up house prices.
Own the asset with a fixed supply.
The Great Rotation.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
Yikes...worth the 90-second read 😳
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
gold hacked
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
What’s happening in the AI-powered reverse engineering and decompilation is absolutely insane. Pretty soon all software will be de facto open-source.
AI is coming for everything and everyone.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
INTEL: ⚠️ Trezor's email provider has been breached.
Phishing emails titled "Critical Security Alert: STM32 Entropy Vulnerability" are going out from Trezor's legitimate domain, passing spam filters and looking real.
Do not click any link and never enter your recovery seed on a website.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
A few months later - a Quantum Safe Bitcoin tx on mainnet: mempool.space/tx/305a24ffea9…
Thanks to StarkWare's @giladi_tom85141 taking this to the finish line and @MARAFoundation_ Slipstream mining this non-standard tx
Also @robin_linus & @Ethan_Heilman on previous work led to QSB
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
My experience of life so far:
You enter a tunnel at ~15 & it shoots you out at ~35 & the rest of your life is largely determined by the choices you made & the luck you had in the tunnel.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
gained a ton of new insights working in bitcoin red team 🟥 that i wish i could share without vague posting. but this is what i got anon.
- we’re experiencing a massive collision between decades of human open source slop against 2 weeks of kimi k3 (not good)
- everything is broken, bitcoin is burning
- bitcoin is becoming stronger through this
- bitcoin is the obvious first target but the rest of the world will follow shortly
- sometimes old things need to burn so new things can grow on healthy soil
- humans should never code in c (just stop)
- lightning is complicated and is more broken than the average (sorry)
- verification is free. we used to complain about slop PRs. then about slop security audits. if you can’t handle the information overload, stop complaining and use AI to sort through it.
- those projects that started AI audits months ago are in a completely different position than those who didn’t
- projects need their own AI audit pipeline going into the future
- the burden for a developer to keep software safe and secure is pretty stressful and not for everyone. it has become a lot more stressful now.
- unmaintained projects are most probably broken, don’t rely on them. i’d rather one-shot it myself with a modern AI
- multiple concurrent, diverse human approaches have proven to be the best vulnerability search method
- external red teaming will probably have to continue forever
- we’ve basically completed a basic scan of virtually the entirety of bitcoin open source. the low hanging fruit is done.
- we’ve reported a ton of real critical and high vulnerabilities. project maintainers across the board have validated our findings.
- response speed is very different across projects and shows how healthy each project is. i recommend acting fast these days.
- red team etiquette matters. if you don’t disclose responsibly, boast on twitter about your findings on a particular project, or make indications about the nature of particular findings, you’ve disqualified yourself as a serious security researcher. trust is the most important factor in this game. if you lose it, it’s very hard to win it back.
- did i mention that humans should not code in c?
love you all.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
The vertical blue lines in this image are completely straight and parallel.
It doesn’t feel that way at all. Even when you know it, your eyes still read them as tilted or shifting slightly from column to column.
I am pivoting from riding a bike to Ai
BREAKING: Allbirds stock, $BIRD, surges over +200% after announcing they are pivoting from shoes to AI.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
One of the tragic effects of inflation is that it forces people to sell assets that would protect them, because they need money now to buy essentials. And this selling often happens at the exact wrong time...when they should be buying protection, not selling it. Many poignant examples in the historical records.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
90% of all SPY gains for the last 30 years have happened since the Fed started QE.
NINETY. PERCENT.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
They said it was too early, too risky, too uncertain. So we built anyway. The Bitcoin House was built to give Sri Lankans real Bitcoin knowledge, safe access, and a physical place to learn, question, touch the tech, and build community. Built by us for us. YOU CAN JUST DO THINGS
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
“Babe, is all those hours monitoring the situation resulting in excess returns per unit of risk in your portfolio?”
There are only fist full of few that truly deserves the spotlight, bringing the purest signal imaginable. Jack is one of them. Go get them kid
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
Exciting news - the Florida Department of Education, Commission on Independent Education has granted us University status. We are excited for this next chapter and appreciate all of you supporting our open education mission to provide a free, quality higher education to all.
Bagpipe Tribe retweeted
Saylor Academy is now Saylor University.
The Florida Department of Education has granted @saylordotorg university status—marking a major milestone in our mission to provide free, world-class higher education for all.