What Bank of Volatility is, in one page: the daily briefing before the US open, a systematic book run since 2016, and three trades from the August book with their results as they were posted. Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Wednesday 28 October 2026, 11:30 CET 🧭 THE PICTURE • /ES 7,768 (+0.13%) and /NQ 29,938 (+0.42%) at 11:30 CET, with the Dow future 0.25% lower and the Russell 0.23% lower: the bid sits in large-cap tech again and nowhere else. • The Fed decides at 19:00 CET. The consensus is a pause at 4.00% after the September hike, with the market pricing at least three more 25 bp hikes by the end of 2027, so the statement and the press conference will be read for December. • Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, Amazon and Intel later in the week. Capex and the cloud growth rate are the two numbers the market wants, with debt-funded AI spending now judged against a ten-year above 5%. • The Nasdaq is up about 2% on the week since Anthropic filed its IPO on Monday. 🔥 WHAT IS MOVING PRE-MARKET • Memory: SK Hynix printed a quarterly profit more than seven times last year's and announced $75bn of shareholder returns. Its US listing is up 7.8%, Micron +4.15% at 967.30, Western Digital +4.5%, Sandisk +0.8%, Seagate −3.7% on its own results. • Semis follow: Nvidia +0.76% at 219.60, AMD +1.5%, Marvell +1.7%, SOXL +3.12%, Korea's EWY +3.70%. • Alphabet +1.2% on a report that OpenAI plans to buy Google's AI chips. Microsoft is flat into its print, two days after offering voluntary departures to 60,000 employees. • Losers: Robinhood −8% on a Q3 miss blamed on the crypto slowdown, Enphase −18% on its miss, Visa −1.7% despite a beat. GE Vernova +4.7% after agreeing to buy Trench Group for $9bn. • Elsewhere on the screen: Bloom Energy +3.88%, Corning +1.90%, Oracle +1.29%, MicroStrategy +1.65%, Apple −0.57% at 345.12, J&J −0.79%, Moderna −1.38% at 205.10, financials (XLF) −0.57%, health care (XLV) −0.49%. 📍 LEVELS • /ES: 7,760 held overnight. 7,800 is the figure above, 7,700 the first support, and the Fed statement decides which one is tested first. • /NQ: 30,000 sits 60 points above. The memory bid gets it there before the Fed; holding it needs Microsoft and Alphabet tonight. Parts 2 and 3, Europe, rates, currencies, oil, gold, bitcoin, volatility and the bottom line:bankofvol.substack.com/p/mem… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

Tip of the day

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. Alert. The bots opened a position at today's close that almost nobody has on their screen: a trade built on a calendar, not a chart, with a date on it next week. Tomorrow at the close, 4 pm New York, a second one goes on, right at the heart of the AI boom, on a name that comes up far less often in the AI conversation than the usual suspects, and for that exact reason remains, in our opinion, underpriced. Both entries go to paid subscribers in the chat as they are done, with the levels to watch. The systematic book runs since 2016; the last exit of this kind closed at +141% the day before the market it was in fell 25%. Subscribe before the close: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Tuesday 27 October 2026, 14:15 CET 🌅 THE TAPE AT MIDDAY • /ES 7,733.5 (+0.25%) after Monday's +0.7% settle at 7,714.5; /NQ 29,553.5 (+0.40%), /YM 52,596 (+0.09%), /RTY 2,805.6 (+0.29%). Second day of the same leadership: SOXL +4.8%, AVGO +3.2%, MU +2.2%, AMD +1.5%, NVDA +0.9%. • VIX 17.87 (−0.52). November /VX 19.00 and December 19.06 sit a point above spot, a normal curve on the eve of the Fed; VVIX 101. • 10-year 5.00%, 2-year 4.74%, 30-year 5.31%. Three weeks of lower yields, now flat into Wednesday. • Oil eases again: Brent around $115 (−0.9%), WTI around $101 (−0.6%). Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday and the four agreed to keep talking, while the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have resumed. • Gold spot 4,024 (flat), December futures 4,038; silver −0.2%; BTC 80,136 (+0.2%). • EUR/USD 1.1152 (−0.2%) as France's bond yields turn back up, USD/CHF 0.8287. 💰 THE RAISE AND THE PRINTS • Meta priced 40 million shares at $625 ($25bn) plus $12.5bn of 6.5% mandatory convertibles (conversion 734.21, a 17.5% premium), the raise now $97.5bn in total, the largest in its history. Nvidia takes $3bn of it and deepens the Muse partnership. META −0.4% pre-market at 628 after −1.9% on Monday. • Guidance raised before the open at Coca-Cola (+1%), UPS and PayPal; Royal Caribbean +4.6% on a beat; Hilton −4% on a revenue miss despite a higher RevPAR outlook; Whirlpool −8% on a quarterly loss; Boeing −2.6% at 183 on a larger loss from supply and production delays; Freeport beat on copper; Centene raised. • Durable goods +1.8% in September (consensus +1.5%), +0.5% ex-transport. Consumer confidence at 16:00 CET (consensus 81.0, prior 81.9). 🇧🇷 BRAZIL, DAY TWO • EWZ +1.8% pre-market at 34.76 after closing Monday at 34.15, −19.7% on the day; Petrobras +0.8% after −14%. The gap held, no second leg so far. 📅 THE WEEK • Fed Wednesday 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30: a hold at 90% per LSEG, December the open question. ECB Thursday (deposit rate 2.50%, hold expected), BoJ Friday. Israel votes today for the Knesset. • Earnings: Microsoft and Alphabet Wednesday after the close, Amazon and Intel Thursday. New home sales today. Parts 2 and 3 on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/sem… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

5/5

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Monday 26 October 2026, 13:15 CET 🌅 THE TAPE AT MIDDAY • /ES 7,687 (+0.36%), /NQ 29,276 (+0.54%), /YM 52,641 (+0.47%), /RTY 2,795 (+0.37%): a modest bounce after two losing weeks, semis in front (SOXL +3.7%, MU +2.1%, AVGO +1.3%, NVDA +0.9%). • VIX 19.16 (−1.5%). November /VX 19.15 and December 19.18 sit on top of spot, a flat curve into the Fed; Friday's inverted front has unwound. • 10-year 5.01% (+1 bp), 2-year 4.71%, 30-year 5.32%. Three weeks of falling yields have brought the 10-year back to the 5% line. • Oil is the one thing going down: USO −2.8% pre-market, WTI around $101 and Brent around $115 after last week's six-month highs. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday in coordination with Washington, while the attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. • Gold spot 4,017 (+0.45%), December futures 4,032 (+0.6%), silver +0.25%, BTC 80,330 (+0.3%). • EUR/USD 1.1197, USD/CHF 0.8261. 🇧🇷 BRAZIL, THE SHOCK OF THE DAY • Lula won a fourth term on Sunday, against the polls and against the whole Latin American swing to the right. Flavio Bolsonaro has refused to concede. • EWZ −25% pre-market (31.85), PBR −21% (20.65), Itau −28%, Bradesco −27%, Nu −24%, MercadoLibre −10%. The 2037 dollar bond lost 1.1 points before São Paulo even opened (14:00 CET). The Ibovespa came into this at +27% year to date. • Capital Economics now sees no rate cut at the two remaining meetings of the year: fiscal risk and the real are back in charge. Elsewhere in EM, Serbia's Vucic conceded to the student movement and the yuan sits at a four-year high. 📅 THE WEEK • Fed Wednesday 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30: a hold after September's hike is the consensus, December stays live, with at least two more quarter-point hikes priced by mid-2027. ECB Thursday and BoJ Friday, both expected on hold. • Earnings: Verizon this morning (guidance raised, a $2bn-plus AWS deal for AI infrastructure), MSFT and GOOGL Wednesday after the close, AMZN and INTC Thursday, SK Hynix and Samsung in Korea the same week. Data: new home sales Tuesday, Q3 GDP first estimate (consensus 3.2%) and September PCE Thursday. Midterms on Tuesday 3 November. • The US close is 21:00 CET all week: Europe changed its clocks, the US does so on 1 November. Parts 2 and 3 on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/ewz… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

Apparently the Ballon d’or ranking has leaked and there has been suspicious big bets on Polymarket on this ranking: 1 Kane 2 Mbappé 3 Yamal 4 Rodri 5 Messi We will see tomorrow it true What’s the SEC doing?

Big if true

Every retail trader I talk to is long AI up to the neck. The reason is always the same: they use it every day now, and once you have seen what it does to your own work you want a piece of the stocks. The market priced that a year ago. What feels like a discovery today was the consensus trade of October 2025, so anyone buying because they have just realised AI is real is trading on information the price absorbed months ago. The internet went through the same cycle. Adoption ran exactly as the optimists of 1999 promised, which did nothing to stop most internet stocks from going to zero. The Nasdaq needed fifteen years to get back to its March 2000 high. Amazon lost more than 90% of its value before it became Amazon. AI will likely follow the same road: adoption on the scale of the internet or even bigger, with a winner-takes-most logic that leaves most of today's AI stocks, each priced as if it were the winner, dumped to the ground. The few winners that emerge from the rout are rarely the names everybody owned going in. My read is that more money will be made on the short side than on the long side in the coming weeks. Those who confuse the adoption of a technology with the price of its stocks will be blinded by the first when the second turns. Bank of Volatility has run a systematic book since 2016 and writes the daily commentary for paid subscribers since 2025: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

The hedge we put on at Friday's close lost money nearly every day this week. Each session the tape went the other way, each evening the mark was a little worse, and each morning the same question came back: cut it and stop the bleeding? Kahneman answered that question forty years ago. A loss hurts about twice as much as an equal gain feels good, so a discretionary trader sitting on a hedge that bleeds three days in a row cuts it, not because the reason for the hedge has changed, but because the pain has to stop. The hedge then comes off the day before it is needed. Every trader has done it. We have done it, decades ago, which is why we no longer trade that way. This is the whole case for a systematic book. The models that run ours do not feel Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. The hedge went on because the model said so at Friday's close, it stays on until the model says otherwise, and the daily mark is a number in a column, not a feeling. This morning the Nasdaq futures are down 1.9%, the VIX is up 11%, and the hedge pays for the whole week in one session so far, "Kaboom". Nobody holds a losing hedge through a week of a rising market on willpower. A system does, because it has no willpower to lose. That is how Bank of Volatility has run its book since 2016, and paid subscribers saw this hedge go on at Friday's close, in the Substack Chat, before the week started: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Thursday 22 October 2026, 11:55 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS • The AI scare is back within hours of the prints meant to bury it. Meta beat on revenue and guided the fourth quarter above estimates, then raised capex to 135 to 145 billion dollars, showed a 2.1 billion free cash flow deficit and announced a new class of non-voting shares for January to pay for it: up 1% early, now down 1.5% at 687. Tesla cut 2026 capex to about 20 billion from more than 25 and turned free cash flow positive by spending less on AI and robots: down 5% pre-market. • Asia sold everything tech: KOSPI down more than 4%, Nikkei down 2.65% to 62,908, Hang Seng down 3%, CSI 300 down 2% at the edge of a bear market, MSCI Asia ex Japan at a 3 month low. Tokyo Electron fell 6%, SK Hynix 5.7%, Alibaba 6.5%. DeepSeek is closing a 15 billion dollar round. • Europe gave back Wednesday's gains: CAC 40 7,828, down 1.2%, DAX down 1%, FTSE down 0.7%, Stoxx 600 down 0.95%, banks down 2.7%. Hermès fell 7% on a China decline and dragged the luxury names; Barclays cuts 5,000 jobs under an AI cost plan; Nestlé, Roche and Thales beat; Nokia beat on AI sales up 123% and still fell 5.6%. • The French bond crossed the United States: the 10 year OAT at 5.09%, up 8 bp, its highest since July 2002, trades above the US 10 year for the first time since 2013, 169 bp over Bunds, the widest since 2011. Treasuries are the haven: US 10 year 5.07%, down 6 bp. • Oil adds the pressure: Brent 111.03, up more than 2%, USO up 2%, near a five month high after new Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. XLE up 1.3%, the only green sector. • Futures at 11:50 CEST: /ES 7,714.75, down 1.10%, /NQ 29,451.75, down 1.85%, Dow 52,699, down 0.7%, Russell 2,769, down 0.9%. VIX 18.54, up 11%, a point from the 18.7 line that says the scare is back; November VIX future 18.80, December 18.85, spot below the front no backwardation yet: a market buying protection today. 📈 EQUITIES • Pre-market offered: Tesla −5%, IBM −6% despite a beat and a higher software guide, Lam Research −6% despite a revenue beat, Strategy −5.8%, Bloom Energy −5.9%, Corning −4.5%, Super Micro −4.5%, IonQ −4.3%, Micron −3.4% at 882, AMD −4.5% at 528, Alibaba −4.5%, Broadcom −2.9%, Oracle −2.8%, Nvidia −2.4% at 216.60, the Korea ETF −3.2%, QQQ 712.07 −1.8%, SPY 765.03 −1.0%, the 3x semis ETF −11.3%. Bid: CSX +2.4% on results, Southwest +1.5%, J&J +0.9%, the healthcare ETF +0.5%, TLT +0.6%, Apple flat at 344. • Texas Instruments guided above estimates on AI data centre chips. Today: Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, Dow, Union Pacific, Blackstone, Valero and American Airlines before the open; Western Digital, Newmont, Deckers and Bloom Energy after the close. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) free on Substack: Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Wednesday 21 October 2026, 13:10 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS • Earnings are winning the argument against the AI debt scare this morning. 13% of the S&P 500 has reported and 86% beat on profits. Super Micro guided well above estimates on AI data-centre demand and trades up 16% pre-market, pulling Micron up 2.7% to 920.62, Nvidia up 2.0% to 220.81, Intel 2.4% and AMD 1.7%; the 3x semis ETF is up 4.9%. • SpaceX more than doubled revenue in the third quarter and trades up 9%, with Rocket Lab 3.7%; Musk called a Tesla merger "a good idea" and both boards have set up special committees. Netflix is the loser of the morning, down 6.4% to 64.30 on a weak profit guide days after cutting 6% of staff. United Airlines warned on fourth quarter profit over fuel; the FAA approved the 737 MAX 10. • Asia bounced after Tuesday's rout: KOSPI up 3.3%, the Korea ETF up 2.6% pre-market, Nikkei up close to 1%. China is the exception, Hong Kong at a 15 week low, Alibaba down 2.4%. NextDC, the Australian data-centre operator, lost half its value on a guidance cut: the AI debt theme has moved to the weakest names. • France pays for the riots: the 10 year OAT crossed 5% for the first time since July 2002, 160 bp over Bunds at 3.4%, and Carrefour fell 13% on a warning blamed on the unrest. Paris still rebounds on results, CAC 40 up 0.5% at 7,877 with EssilorLuxottica up 14%; DAX up 0.6%, FTSE 0.1%. • Oil holds the highs: WTI November 101.09, down 0.7% on the day, Brent around 111. A diplomat dismissed reports of an imminent deal to end the US-Iran conflict while confirming talks continue; Moscow says the first Russian diesel cargo for the United States ships Thursday. Jio's 3.2 billion dollar IPO in Mumbai was covered in under two hours. • Futures at 13:05 CEST: /ES 7,771.50, up 0.21%, /NQ 29,842.50, up 0.56%, Dow futures 52,732 flat, Russell futures 2,786.8. VIX 17.36, down 0.3%; the October VIX future settles this morning at 17.05, December trades 18.56, VVIX 97. 📈 EQUITIES • Pre-market bid: Super Micro +16%, SpaceX +9%, AXT +4.5%, Bloom Energy +3.8%, Coherent +3.7%, Micron +2.7%, CoreWeave +2.5%, Strategy +2.5%, Oracle +1.5%, QQQ 721.55 +0.55%, SPY 770.41 +0.18%. Offered: Netflix −6.4%, Alibaba −2.4%, Hesai −2.6%, the healthcare ETF −0.65%, J&J −0.5%, Apple −0.4%. • Tonight after the close: Meta, where AI capex and the Muse assistant are the questions, and Tesla, with the SpaceX merger talk on top of the numbers. Also today: Hasbro beat, Elevance raised its 2026 guide, Intuitive Surgical trimmed procedure growth, Thermo Fisher, Danaher and Capital One beat. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/sup… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Tuesday 20 October 2026, 11:55 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS • The AI debt scare moved to Asia overnight. The KOSPI fell 3.73% to 5,553 with Samsung down 3.2%, SK hynix 4.7% and Hanwha Aerospace 11.7%; the Nikkei lost 1.3% to 64,075, a one month low, with SoftBank down 6% as its credit default swaps hit a four year high, and the Japanese banks fell 4% to 5%. The Korea ETF trades 3.5% lower pre-market. • Wall Street had bounced on Monday, the S&P 500 up 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.11%, with Micron up 3%, SanDisk 5.5%, Amazon 5% and Tesla 3.8%. The bounce is fading before the bell: Micron down 2.6%, Bloom Energy 3.6%, CoreWeave 2.8%, Nebius 3.2%. • Oil is back at the month's highs. Brent 111.55, up 1.8%, WTI 100.71, up 2.2%. Iran keeps asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz with several ships attacked, Tehran blames Washington for the insecurity, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia keep trading strikes, and Russia and Ukraine resumed attacks on each other's energy plants. Washington is authorising the sale of sanctioned tankers so the dark fleet, about 1,600 ships, can carry crude legally. • OpenAI is racing to close a funding round at more than 1.4 trillion dollars before Anthropic's IPO, planned for mid November, Reuters reports. JPMorgan says bank exposure to CoreWeave is limited and well collateralised, with 24 billion of delayed-draw loans, 15 billion drawn, and keeps it overweight with a 125 target. • Europe is down a second day: Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.96% to a four month low, DAX 0.94%, FTSE MIB 0.98%, CAC 40 0.83%, FTSE 100 0.75%, the STOXX 600 tech index 1.5%. Schneider lost 4% on a capital increase at 240 euros, ABB 6.6% on results, OVHcloud gained 10%. French OATs recovered a little after Lecornu's curfews calmed the streets. • Futures at 11:50 CEST: /ES 7,728, down 0.08%, /NQ 29,590, down 0.45%, Dow futures up 0.2%. VIX 18.73, up 1.6%, the October VIX future 18.60 under December at 18.96, with the October contract expiring tomorrow. 📈 EQUITIES • Pre-market losers: Micron 881.34 down 2.6%, Bloom Energy down 3.6%, Corning 2.0%, Strategy 1.9%, Nokia 1.9%, Oracle 1.7%, Tempus 1.6%, IonQ 1.3%, Nvidia 216.37 down 0.3%; the 3x inverse semis ETF up 4.2%. Bid: the energy ETF up 0.9%, J&J 0.8%, Transocean 1.9%, Petrobras 0.9%, the 20 year Treasury ETF 0.3%. • Today's earnings: GM before the open, SpaceX and Netflix after the close, plus GE, RTX and United Airlines. The FAA is expected to certify the 737 MAX 10 today; Tradeweb buys Trumid for 1.97 billion dollars. • Rest of Asia: Hang Seng down 1.47%, Shanghai up 0.12%, Istanbul up 1.2%. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/kos… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

That’s my man. Short with two hands.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Monday 19 October 2026, 14:55 CEST 🌍 WHAT MOVED MARKETS - Chips are bouncing before the bell. Micron trades 3.6% higher pre-market, Nvidia 1.8%, Broadcom and Qualcomm 2.5%, Intel 3.8% on a JPMorgan upgrade, and CoreWeave 3% after losing more than 25% last week. The 3x semis ETF is up 10.7% pre-market and the 3x inverse Nasdaq ETF down 3.8%. - Europe opened the week with riots. Saturday's protests against the cost of living in France turned into violence and looting in several cities, with unrest in Belgium, Italy and Portugal too. The CAC 40 is down 1.56%, the Euro Stoxx 50 1.18%, the DAX 1.36%, the FTSE MIB 1.75% and the IBEX 1.68%; the French 10 year rose 7bp to 4.86% against 1bp for the Bund at 3.42%. Accor lost 3%, URW 2.7%. - Oil holds the week's gains: WTI 101.00 after a 10% rise last week, Brent 108.43. A Saudi helicopter crashed near the Yemen border, the Houthis hit the Yanbu export hub and two tankers were struck in the Gulf. Energy Secretary Wright says Gulf shipments are back to about 80% of pre-war levels. - Trump agreed a diesel export deal with Russia and waived tariffs and sanctions on its energy shipments to support the Ukraine talks; lawmakers filed a bill to block the purchases. - China's third quarter GDP grew 4.5%, above the 4.4% expected, with industrial output at 5.5% and retail sales at 1.1%; the Shanghai Composite closed up 0.39%. The KOSPI rose 1.76% on institutional buying while the Nikkei fell 0.62% as the AI names kept sliding. - The Fed is in its blackout before the 27–28 October meeting, with about 84% priced for a hold after Warsh's silence on Friday. - Futures at 14:45 CEST: /ES 7,738.50, up 0.44%, /NQ 29,752.50, up 1.23%, /YM 52,085, down 0.25%, /RTY 2,746.40, up 0.40%. VIX 18.61, down 6.9%, the October VIX future 18.40 back under December at 18.72, so Friday's inversion is gone. 📈 EQUITIES - Pre-market: Micron 910.40 up 3.6%, Nvidia 218.08 up 1.8%, Oracle up 2.1%, Palo Alto up 2.5%, Bloom Energy up 4.8%, Corning up 3.4%, Strategy up 1.9%; the Korea ETF up 5.5%. Defensives give back Friday's bid: J&J down 1.0%, the healthcare ETF down 0.7%, the energy ETF down 1.0%. - Microsoft pulled out of a data center deal with Britain's Nscale, the Telegraph reports; JPMorgan put 5 billion dollars of equity into sectors it calls strategic for US security; the EU told KKR it may have given misleading information in the 2024 NetCo review. - Rest of Asia and Europe: Hang Seng up 0.52%, Sensex down 1.17%, FTSE 100 down 1.29%, SMI down 0.62%, Istanbul down 1.17%. Parts 2 and 3 (rates, FX, oil with the Monday COT read, metals, crypto, AI, calendar, bottom line) are free on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/chi… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.