BarryB ✍️

I posted this for subs a free days ago but sharing the full piece because i think it's important: Hi I recorded a stream of thoughts that came to me that I think is really important to understand if you're trading on-chain right now: I think what we're seeing on-chain is very simply the downstream effect of AI-enabled software. AI is really, really good for very small, niche projects that are fast to build and fast to ship. But at the enterprise level, it's actually pretty hard to integrate across a whole company. So we have this very weird, diametric effect: you're not seeing productivity gains from AI at the highest level, among the largest corporations, but you are seeing gains at the lowest level, among entrepreneurs building ship-fast, brick-by-brick things. This essentially leads to, again, a lot more K-shaped outcomes. Obviously, the bull case is that if these large corporations can figure out how AI works and raise their productivity, number go up, right? But in the context of on-chain, I think on-chain is cooked. Permanently cooked. It's more K-shaped than ever before. We now have a lot of good-looking projects, so on-chain is basically a huge lemon market problem right now. All of these projects look good on the surface but could be run by scammers, and it's really, really difficult to tell. Last time, you could at least say, "Oh, they had a good website. They put effort into this." Now effort is free. That's why I think on-chain isn't doing well: there's just so much slop software that looks good on the surface, and you don't really know whether it's actually good. It's so hard to break out of the market cap range that defines whether something is good on-chain. That's why I actually think it's better to put all your eggs in a single basket, but that basket has to be defined by parameters that go beyond software. As we've seen with Orbio, it's about the team: how well they deliver and who they are. It's 100% the team, right? Founder quality. That's one, because ideas are cheap. We've seen about 20 different inference markets pop up after Orbio hit all-time highs, and that's to be expected. Really, we're going to see 200 more, because it's so cheap. You just throw Orbio's website into an AI, say "replicate this for me," and it builds itself. Two, that's why I actually think alts are so much easier than on-chain. To reach a certain market cap, a project must already have proved itself in some way. So it's much easier to dig through 100 alts above a billion market cap and figure out which are good and which are bad, versus digging through 10,000 sub-$10 million coins, where a new "good idea" comes up literally every hour. I think this concept is really, really important to understand if you're trading on-chain.