My FPL GW8 Tips ✅ • Saka went off injured last night, and Arteta's comments suggest it's serious. I'd be very surprised if he plays before the IB. • Swapping to a triple Arsenal defence looks like the most sensible play. If you don't have Gabriel or Raya, they're top priority for guaranteed minutes. Calafiori is also a great pick. • Odegaard and Havertz benefit the most. With Gyökeres and Saka out, I expect them to share penalty duties. That said, I'd avoid Havertz as better FWDs exist, but Odegaard is a brilliant, easy switch. • Szoboszlai is a sell for most; he's likely out until the IB. Liverpool's fixtures improve afterwards, but I'm fine holding off until we get full confirmation on his fitness. • Rogers and Mbeumo are top replacements. Chelsea have no UCL distractions and their fixtures are solid. Mbeumo is playing as a No. 9 in Šeško's absence (who could be out until February). He has started every game and never gets subbed. • Gibbs-White is next on my list: ultra-nailed, on penalties, with decent fixtures. • For a cheaper option, look at Schade (£6.2m). Great data and form, and playing 45 minutes straight off a shoulder injury is very encouraging. Thiago is on 4 YCs, so if he gets suspended, Schade could play No. 9 and take penalties. • Tavernier is decent (~82 mins/start, great data), but I'm still not fully sold on his price point. Upgrading to a £7.5–8.0m player or fully downgrading to a £4.5–5.0m enabler feels like better value. • Manzambi is a 'wait and see'. He's a doubt, and the City fixture was a bad entry point anyway. • Groß has two awful fixtures ahead, so I'd stay clear for now. • Semenyo is out for 2 months. Does that make City midfielders option? I don't think so. There's still too much rotation risk. Cherki, Foden, and Enzo are competing for the No. 10 spot. Doku and Ndiaye should start most games on the wing, but Allan, Foden, and Cherki can all fill in there too. If we get more clarity, we can reconsider around GW10–11. • Bruno Fernandes is a headache. Calling Carrick out publicly makes a benching possible if he stays in charge. However, I expect a manager change soon, and the classic "new manager bounce" could boost both United and Fernandes. For now, I'm holding (but let's see what news comes closer to the deadline). • Captaincy is tricky this week. After last night, Bruno is completely off the table due to uncertainty. Palmer is my top choice, with Haaland a close second.

🚨 What to do with Joao Pedro? • Joao Pedro is out, at least until the international break. He’s a sell for most teams: • Many good replacements for immediate EV gain & reconsider after GW16 (post LIV, MCI). • Chelsea are currently 13th in the league for npxG, they’re the 2nd biggest overperformers (after Brighton), with a +6.8 G-xG Δ. • Given the quality of the current player pool having 2-3 Chelsea attackers is fine; no Europe, really high share of goals by the front-3. However offloading 1 or 2 asset is fine. • There are teams that can easily hold Joao Pedro too. It’s just the matter of whether you’re able to tank the price drop or wait more if it ends up being more serious. 🔹Who are the best replacements? • Firstly I’d look at Barry. If we take Haaland out of the picture he’s first amongst forwards in these categories: xG, npxG, shots, SoT, BCM, xGI, npxGI, xG from SP. He has started all 8 games, averaged 85 minutes and probably on penalties. At 5.6M he’s the best value pick in the game. • Jackson, Calvert-Lewin, Evanilson and Thiago come next. Thiago would be the ultimate replacement next to Barry; he has played the most minutes out of any forward (missed only 7 minutes), and has almost a -3 G-xG Δ but he’s on 4 yellow cards, so a suspension is close. Long-term he’s the most reliable. Speaking of long-term security Calvert-Lewin comes next; 6.1M, nailed, penalties. Jackson and Evanilson are the most explosive ones; insane fixture run for both of them. Backed by decent data. You also can’t go wrong with them. • If you’re still on the Fernandes, no-Haaland structure (like myself) it’s one of the most straightforward decisions all season. Downgrade Bruno & upgrade JP to Haaland. • Isak is interesting but I like his alternatives more. Liverpool have the most difficult fixture up next (Arsenal). Szoboszlai is back soon, which means he likely loses penalties. 🔸Sell tonight? In most cases, yes. • If you go for Jackson, Haaland or Isak you’d miss 0.2M not doing it, with very little extra information gained. Evanilson is also close, waiting one more day isn’t very helpful. • Barry, Calvert-Lewin and Thiago are not close. If you don’t lose money at all on Joao Pedro and want to buy one of these players just wait.

I think I know my Szoboszlai replacement 🔒