Benjamin A. Smith (@BenjaminA_Smith) header
Benjamin A. Smith (@BenjaminA_Smith) profile picture

Senior Financial Writer @ Skyline Group of Companies. Capital markets professional, commentator & marketer.

43.6766° N, 79.7848° W
Joined February 2018
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Just published, I took at look at all the debt maturities among 9 top $MSOS (Ascend Wellness, Ayr Wellness, Columbia Care, Cresco, Curaleaf, GTI, TerrAscend, Trulieve, Verano) to see if 'debt cliff' concerns for 2023 were grounded. Data table included. thedalesreport.com/cannabis/…
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Benjamin A. Smith retweeted
Replying to @MDoofis @POTUS
Not following that logic. Under the treaty only medical could be rescheduled due to international law. That was the fastest path so the administration took it to get something done today. The rulemaking process had been stalled and just got not only unstuck but expedited. That process reschedules all marijuana and will be completed within months.
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With another day of strong relative performance from $MSOS (⚫️), I thought I'd compare its post-Iran war returns against key benchmarks, including NASDAQ Comp (🔵), S&P 500 (🟡) and Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF (pink). The former beats them all. YMMV on interp🤷
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For $MSOS investors seeking *relative* price value, here's a list of individual companies that are trading below Dec. 12 gap up pre-Trump EO levels currently: $AAWH (added small position recently @ $0.51) $CURA $MAPS (peripheral SAAS) $VREO ~ $CXXI ~ $JUSH
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Just a theory, but paradoxically is the Iran war helping $MSOS insofar the mkt expects Trump to double down on stimulative domestic policies before midterms? This plays into resched/desched rumors as major domestic moves are KEY for the Republicans’ November chances. Thoughts?
⚡️#BREAKING Odds on U.S forces entering Iran by December 31st is up to almost 60%. People are realising the only way for the U.S to achieve its goals is through a direct ground attack
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Perhaps it would have/will happen anyway on the original timeline. But I can't see how the admin doesn't throw the kitchen sink at all practical measures to help an economy hit by an unpopular war of choice, with consumers bearing the consequences. PA has been impressive this wk.
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Just a temperature check on $MSOS. Curious to see where investors are positioning given the rumors, potential catalysts of geopolitical uncertainty. Note, 'MSOS' is a catch-all for individual cannabis company buys and where these may occur relative to ETF levels.
21%Plan to add $3.50-$3.90
15%Plan to add sub $3.50
60%I'm done adding
5%I bought the latest pump
151 votes • Final results
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Hey @POTUS I found ~500,000 jobs that can be added to the rolls. They could come in handy right about now. All that's needed is for @AGPamBondi to do what you've already instructed. Let's get this moving. @BLS_gov $MSOS h/t: @r4enza
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Another $MSOS pump? Meh. I'm more bullish bc of the horrible job numbers, which, combined with an unpopular war & fractured base, should prompt the admin to deregulate everything possible in the domestic economy to get it moving. The midterms won't win themselves.
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Haven't added to existing positions yet, but keeping my eye for when this pump settles. If there's one absolute rule must one adhere to in this sector, it's not to chase. Leave that for when the sector normalizes.
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Boring trade this wk and that's probably a net positive. Made zero new moves despite DK call - sticking with core positions mostly around these level + add on any capitulation/large algo-induced drawdowns. Don't make reactionary moves that make algo manipulation profitable. $MSOS
This is exactly what happened. The blatant fuckery shows these POS HFTs can take price anywhere they want in the absence of institutional liquidity. The ONLY way to play $MSOS currently is to NEVER buy any pump, DCA on large algo walkdowns & hope Trump delivers. @SEC is useless
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Knockdown algos hit the BID repeatedly with 100-share lots every few secs without corresponding buys. Sellers see the BID thinning and anticipate further downside, so they hit the BID causing cascading sell momentum. You can see this everyday by watching the order book. $MSOS
Jane Street's entire business model is generating fake price directionality through constant, repeated HFT momentum ignition (huge leverage on small positions), and luring retail in. Then it rugs everyone right after it cashes out.
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So, when a price gets to an interesting level, see if the knockdown algo is in effect. If it is, it generally means: A) an algo is piecing out a larger sell order in 100-share lots, or B) algo is intentionally forcing downward price direction. Then wait for another time to buy.
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This is exactly what happened. The blatant fuckery shows these POS HFTs can take price anywhere they want in the absence of institutional liquidity. The ONLY way to play $MSOS currently is to NEVER buy any pump, DCA on large algo walkdowns & hope Trump delivers. @SEC is useless
The cabal pumped $MSOS over $4 yesterday, sold the $4 calls, and then made sure the calls expired worthless today. Just another week in cannabis investing with Bay St & gang.
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Repub voter enthusiasm 📉 & the party holding the presidency usually loses seats in Congress. Trump/Bondi need to deliver: Annual Legal Sales ~$30B+ Total US Canna Sector Jobs~425-440K Total Tax Rev >$20B+ ~2.1M veteran users Every vote gonna count in midterms this year $MSOS
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So, even in the tragic world of cannabis sector broken valuation model, $MAPS stands out as egregious. Company sitting on ~$62M Cash/E, but yet has only a $77M MC despite consistentr positive free CF and rising COB. Sure, growth has stagnated, but this is hard to justify. $MSOS
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I bought 4000k @ $0.82 thinking this was a pretty safe bet assuming S1 repeals, but price keeps falling. Will purchase another 10K if it breatches ATLs around $0.60. Probably also a victim of AI/SAAS scare but price is overdone assuming S3 enviro. Firesale prices.
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Oh, and the company has zero debt, unless you count certain lease liabilities which isn't even really debt. This is the worst investing sector ever until it isn't.
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One underdiscussed narrative in $MSOS is the disruption AI is causing. As (sadly) wide swaths of industries come under pressure (ie see recent 📉 ETF $IGV), as a tangible product $MSOS should actually benefit for a swell of incremental new users/consumption. Just needs gov action
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Benjamin A. Smith retweeted
Like showing up at the airport 30 min before your flight and blaming TSA and the airline when you don’t make it.
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Benjamin A. Smith retweeted
shorturl.at/lmJYm The #BoC meets Wednesday to set its key overnight rate. Expectations for a ‘jumbo’ cut are growing with inflation cooling to below the central bank’s median target of 2%. Wayne Byrd, Skyline’s CFO, on why decisive action may be considered.
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