Author of Oscarmetrics. I use math to predict and write about award shows. Published in @THR, @NYTimes, @WashingtonPost, and @BostonGlobe. @Harvard '15.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined January 2013
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I am proud to announce that I've written a book — and it's available now!
"Oscarmetrics" uses math to answer fascinating questions about the Oscars. Just in time for the holidays and awards season, this book is perfect for movie fans and data fans alike! amazon.com/dp/1629334405
78th Emmy Awards Headlines
🏆 Widow's Bay wins 6 awards
🏆 The Pitt wins Best Drama again
🏆 Stephen Colbert wins Variety Series for the final season
🏆 Matthew Rhys becomes the 1st person to win 2 lead acting awards in one night
🏆 Jean Smart wins her 5th Lead Comedy Actress
RIP Bob Mackie, a legendary fashion designer whose work spanned the better part of seven decades. He was one of six costume designers to have a Tony win along with 3+ Oscar nominations (Irene Sharaff, Anthony Powell, Ann Roth, Miles White, Theoni V. Aldredge).
RIP to the incomparable Dolly Parton, a key figure in shaping country music. She was an 18-time Grammy nominee for Best Female Country Vocal Performance, tied with Emmylou Harris for the most all-time in that category. youtube.com/watch?v=6x-2LsOs…
This concludes the @BensOscarMath live-tweet of the Tony Awards. Thanks to @THR for publishing my predictions, @TheTonyAwards for another great show, and to all of you for following along! See you next year!
Final tally for the model:
- Of the 14 categories announced on the main broadcast, the mathematical favorite won 13.
- Of the 26 categories overall, the mathematical favorite won 21.
Schmigadoon is the 11th show to win Best Musical without winning Direction or any acting categories. It's the second in the last 15 years, after A Strange Loop (2022).
Ragtime is the first show in #TonyAwards history to win Best Musical Revival, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and Sound Design.
Schmigadoon wins Best Musical! It’s the second Best Musical to be based on or primarily inspired by a television show, after Avenue Q (2004).
Schmigadoon is the Best Musical of 2026! Three nominees sat in double digits, but the math pegged this final category correctly.
Cats: The Jellicle Ball joins Hamilton (2016) and Moulin Rouge (2020) as the only shows to win Musical Direction, Costume Design, and Choreographer.
Ragtime is the third musical this century to win both leading acting categories, after Hairspray (2003) and The Band’s Visit (2018).
Joshua Henry (Ragtime) wins Best Actor in a Musical! He joins Jonathan Groff and Michael Cerveris as the only people with a win on 3+ nominations in this category since 2000.
Joshua Henry (Ragtime) wins Best Actor in a Musical. Statistics now stands at 80% on the evening, at 20/25.
This is the first time in #TonyAwards history that four different musicals (Schmigadoon, The Lost Boys, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Ragtime) each won three or more Tonys.
Caissie Levy (Ragtime) wins Best Actress in a Musical, for her role as Mother. It’s the third time this role has been nominated (Marin Mazzie, Christiane Noll), and the first win. Charity from Sweet Charity is now the only character with 3+ nominations in this category but no wins.
Caissie Levy (Ragtime) wins Leading Actress in a Musical. Current tally for the model: 19 favorites have won out of 24 categories. Two to go!
A Chorus Line (1976) won 9 Tonys, which at the time was the third-most ever, behind Hello Dolly (1964) with 11 and Fiddler on the Roof (1965) with 10.
The Book of Mormon is currently the 4th longest-running active Broadway show, behind Chicago, The Lion King, and Wicked.
Death of a Salesman won 6 Tonys tonight, setting a new record for the most Tonys won by a play revival. The previous record was 4, shared by An Inspector Calls (1994), The Heiress (1995), A Doll’s House (1997), and Death of a Salesman (1999). #TonyAwards