Possible Lessons Iran May Draw from Venezuela (without delving into the significant differences between the two cases): From the regime’s perspective: A. The Trump administration is willing to use military force to achieve its objectives. B. The assessment is likely to be reinforced that the ultimate U.S. goal is political change, rather than merely action against Iran’s nuclear or missile programs; consequently, there is little incentive to negotiate with the Trump administration. C. Iran should strengthen its deterrence vis-à-vis the United States by continuing to enhance its strategic capabilities (possibly also changing its nucleae doctrine?) in order to bolster regime resilience. From the public’s perspective: A. The Trump administration may follow through on its threats to use force in response to violent repression of protests, and it may therefore be possible to rely on it more than previously assumed. B. On the other hand, a change of government in Caracas does not necessarily constitute regime change. If another authoritarian military government were to replace Maduro, this would reinforce the assessment that, in Iran as well, an authoritarian regime led by the IRGC could replace Khamenei, potentially accompanied by instability and chaos (depending on developments in Venezuela).