Harry Enten: “the midterms are just days away and i’m poring over hundreds, no, thousands of polls and data points. and you know what the numbers are telling me? they are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory. my goodness gracious. and of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and i just listen. and what are we talking about when we’re talking about a midterm blowout forecast? well, we’re going to start off with the house of representatives, the chance of a blowout in the house. well, we’ve got it right here, but we’re going to go digging through the data. let’s take a look at how much the race for the house of representatives has changed over just the last few months. take a look here. the most likely house seats won by democrats. you know, back in august we were talking about 232 house seats won by democrats. that number, it’s up significantly. democrats, well, they are riding shotgun. that’s what we’re talking about. we’re riding shotgun here. now we’re up to 238 as the most likely seat outcome for democrats come these midterm elections. so what the heck is going on out there? well, i’ll tell you what’s going on out there. let’s take a look at this. trump net approval rating, well, it is going in the wrong direction. it’s going down, down, down. okay, back in july we were talking about trump’s negative net approval rating of 24 points. look at where we are in august. it was minus 31 points. september, minus 34 points. then look at this, down to minus 35 points in the average of reuters/ipsos polls. my goodness gracious, that is atrocious. that is atrocious. and you know, i like to go back through the time machine. i like to go back through the time machine because you know what? when you go back through the time machine, you’re taking a roll of the die. you don’t know where exactly you’re going to end up. but where we end up with is not good territory for donald john trump and the republicans. take a look at this, minus 15 points or worse net approval rating at a midterm. how many house seats did the opposition party win? take a look at this. house seats the opposition party won. well, back in 1946, truman, of course a democrat, the republicans won. get this, 246 house seats. that’s two, that’s four, and that’s six. okay, well north of 230 seats. how about in 2006? well, a few of us were alive for that, although i’m not quite sure everyone in our audience is, but i was certainly alive for it. back in 2006, the democrats ran right over the republican party. look at this. they got 233 house seats, again north, north, north in a way of 230 house seats. definitely a blowout. but it is not just the presidential approval rating that’s heading in the wrong direction. no, no, no, no, no, no. it’s not the only thing that’s heading in the wrong direction for republicans. what else are we talking about that’s heading in the wrong direction for republicans? well, how about this? the national congressional ballot. look at this. a year ago, democrats were ahead by four. that’s pretty good, but certainly nothing necessarily to write home about. how about by the summer of 2026? well, we added on two more to that. we got to six. but look at it now. look at it now. what are we talking about? we’re talking about democrats with a 10-point advantage on the national congressional ballot. that easily overcomes any redistricting. it’s really the type of thing that if you’re a republican, you’ll want to be calling your office about, calling home saying, please, please, no, no, no. but you know what? that’s what the polls are saying. and you know what? when we think about this and we say, okay, let’s just say the polls, boom, they’re right on. well, the democrats win the national house vote by nine-plus points. does that mean they win at least 240 house seats? well, history says, you know what? you betcha. si, senor, si, senor, yes. how about if you look at 2026 models, if in fact the democrats win the national house vote by at least nine points? yes, absolutely. we’re talking about the democrats winning at least 240 house seats, if it’s exactly on and we modeled this correctly. so all those factors come together and you go to yourself, okay, is there any way that the democrats could in fact be stopped? well, i got to tell you, yes, there is some caution. there is some caution that there should be for democrats out there. why should there be some caution? well, take a look here. mid-october generic congressional ballot underestimated the republican party. get this, 15 of 16 times since 1994. so democrats, hold on a second, we got to have the caution cone here. we got to have the caution cone here because the bottom line is this. there is a history of democrats underperforming their polling at this point in the election cycle and republicans overperforming. now, that being said, the idea that democrats are going to so underperform that it’s going to end up with republicans really doing well on election night, i’m not quite sure that’s true, at least the house of representatives. why is that? take a look at the national house ballot. what was the largest 21st century error? well, it was about 4.5 points. if in fact that happened to democrats and they were on the receiving end essentially of underperforming their polls, well, what would that mean? well, they would still win the national house vote by 5.3 points, which would in fact overcome redistricting. so, when you tally it all together, right, you say, okay, what does this mean? what does this mean in terms of the chance of a blowout? well, it means that the chance of a blowout, my dear friends, well, it’s pretty gosh darn high. the chance of a house blowout is 71 percent. 71 percent. now, there’s a 29 percent chance that it doesn’t happen, right? but 71 percent things happen more often than 29 percent things. i know enough math to know that. so, what does this actually mean in terms of the parties? well, the chance that the party gets to at least 230 house seats. look, republicans, the chance that they blow out the democrats, really, it’s 2 percent. we haven’t seen the type of error necessary for republicans to actually blow out the democrats. but look, look at nick. nick is getting me my 2. this is literally a 1 and a 2, or 2 this way, either way. what we’re talking about here is that democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the republicans, a very, very nice 69 percent chance. so, this is what we’re talking about in terms of the house of representatives. but what are we actually talking about in terms of what i think a lot of folks are really interested in? and that is the united states senate. what about the senate? what’s the chance they’ll blow out there? well, first off, this has worn me out a little bit. gotta have a little bit of cream soda. my favorite. oh, yeah. yeah, that’s good. all right, i’m charged up. i’m ready to go. i’m ready for the fall campaign. so, as the big buffalo bills fan, let’s say, let’s go. let’s go. that’s where we’re gonna go. we’re gonna go to the united states senate and take a look here. what’s the chance of a senate blowout? but we gotta build the story. we gotta build the story. we gotta figure out what’s going on here. well, the thing i wanna point out is i think a lot of people might be saying, hey, you know what? i hear about all these close senate races. and indeed, if we look at the 2026 senate map, all the races that are within five points, right? all of them are toss-up. look at this. we’re talking about maine. we’re talking about michigan. we’re talking about ohio. we’re talking about texas. we’re talking about kansas. we’re talking about nebraska and iowa. we’re also talking about alaska and, yes, even minnesota. you might say, wow, how could we get a blowout in this case? because this only gets the two parties to 46 democrats and 45 republicans. of course, we’re counting the independents who caucus with the democratic party. but there’s math behind this. there’s math behind this. there are numbers behind this. because you know what happens normally in senate elections? one party, if they over-perform in one state in terms of what their polling average suggests, they tend to over-perform in all of them when it comes to the close senate races. so whose senate polling average is underestimated? well, in 2020, look at this, 100 percent of the races that were close, the gop was underestimated. how about in 2022? it was the democrats, and 100 percent of the races, they were underestimated. and in 2024, it was 100 percent of the close races, the republicans were underestimated. when the polls miss in one state in one direction, they tend to miss in all of the close states in the same direction. this is what recent history tells us, ergo heading towards blowout territory. now, of course, republicans have tended to be the ones who have benefited from the polling errors, especially in the states that donald trump has won in the prior years. i mean, take a look here, gop outperformed the final senate poll averages. look at this, in the states that donald trump won, look at this, they’ve outperformed them by four, a one, right there, 4.1, that’s what we’re talking about, 4.1, and significantly less in the states that trump lost. so that’s very important, why? because democrats need to win in states that donald trump won by 10-plus points. that’s what we’re talking about, and these are the types of numbers that you really need to shade your eyes for. i mean, my goodness gracious, look at this. trump plus 10 points states, democratic senate flips. during the trump era, not including special elections, they only flip zero. that’s not even only, that’s a zero, zero, hold on, zero seats that they flip, not including special elections, in senate states that trump won by at least 10 points. to win the majority in 2026, they likely need to win at least two of them. they likely need to win at least two of them. and there’s no history of them doing that in the trump era. so you tally it all together, and republicans actually have a pretty decent chance of not just holding the senate, but holding it with room to spare, right? they only need 50 seats because vice president vance would in fact break the tie. their chance that they win at least 51 seats, ergo, they have room to spare, is 24 percent. that’s basically a quarter. and i gotta tell you, i find quarters on the ground all of the time. weird things always happen frequently, at least in new york city. you get such random things that happen in new york city, you think you have no chance, they always frickin’ seem to happen. but that being said, what are we talking about here? well, we’re talking about that there are still a lot of states out there where the democrats are actually leading, these close senate races. democrats are actually leading in these polls. i mean, look at this. tight senate races, dem average polling. look at this. kansas, which hasn’t had a democratic senator elected since 1932. it’s a tie. iowa, a point lead for the democrats. maine, two points. i mean, susan collins has been in the united states senate, she was first elected in what, 1996. my goodness gracious. all the way back in the 90s. 30 years ago. texas hasn’t elected a democratic senator since 1988. they’re up by three. how about michigan? up by three. despite many doubts from the pundits that abdul el-sayed is, let’s just say, not the best when it comes to electability. and in ohio, sherrod brown, sherrod brown, who lost two years ago, is now ahead by four points. and of course, democrats likely need to win at least three of these for control, but they got it. they got it when it comes to these states, right? so you’ll look at this data and you say to yourself, okay, combine it with what we’re seeing on the national level in terms of trump’s approval rating. i mean, again, this is the types of numbers that should absolutely be scary, scary, whoo-hoo, scary to republicans. look at his net approval rating. it’s at its lowest. in kansas, again, a state donald trump won by double digits back in 2016. well, he did it in 2016. did it in 2020. he also did it in 2024. texas, that trump won by double digits in 2024. iowa, i mean, my goodness gracious. it’s the heartland of america, but it was the heartland for, dare i say, heartbreak for democrats back in 2024. ohio, look at this. 22 points underwater. i mean, my goodness gracious. he’s down there with jacques cousteau in ohio, down in the ohio river. and in maine, in great new england, he’s 34 points underwater. i mean, you have to try hard to find some trump supporters up in maine, at least by portland. so you put those together, right? and then you say, okay, trump is part of the equation, but the other part of the equation is these republican senate candidates. it’s one thing for trump to be unpopular, but it is a real, real caution cone. a real, real caution cone for republicans hoping to maintain the senate when you have unpopular candidates like these. i mean, look at this. mike rogers, eight points underwater. ashley hinson, nine points underwater. dan sullivan, 11 points underwater in alaska. the senator from ohio, who i’ve heard a certain president say has a very nice backside. i don’t know. anyway, anyway, he’s 15 points underwater. and ken paxton, the most unpopular gop senate nominee in texas this entire century, 16 points underwater. that, my dear friends, is, i dare say, hold on, we got it out, i’m putting it in here. that is a potential recipe for disaster, and no, i didn’t need a calculator necessarily for that. and you know what? when you put it together with the gas prices, i mean, this is the thing that has really dragged down the republicans. look at this. gas prices since the iran war began. look at this. 54 percent in maine. michigan, excuse me, me is maine, michigan’s mi. 55 percent in kansas. how about in iowa? 56 percent. and in nebraska, which has come on the board as a potential pickup opportunity for the independent candidate, dan osborn, look at that, 58 percent. what is this? oh, yes. yes, yes. the midwest, it’s important politically, it’s important politically. these are all, of course, very important swing states that are going on here and are only boosting the democrats’ chances. so you put it all together, right? you put it all together, what’s the chance that democrats win at least 52 seats, 52 senate seats? ergo, they have room to spare. wow. this red is blasting off the screen. woo. it’s a 57 percent chance that democrats win not just a majority of the united states senate, but a majority with room to spare in the united states senate. and remember, we’re not just talking about the chance that democrats have of blowing out the republicans. remember, the republicans also have a chance. remember this? a 24 percent chance that republicans win at least 51 seats. so you put it all together, you put in this 24 percent, you put in the 57 percent chance that democrats have. so what’s the chance that one of the two parties wins the united states senate with room to spare? well, you know what? there’s no place i’d rather be than right here, right now, as marv levy once said. and so the chance of a senate blowout is an 81 percent chance that one of the two parties wins with room to spare. so yeah, look, there’s a 19 percent chance, right, on the other side of this coin, that we were really down to the wire when we were really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night. it’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance. which is to say one of the parties is going to win with at least one seat to spare. ok, so that was a lot, and we still got days to go, days to go. so i’ll see you here next week. if you have anything you want me to cover in the final videos before this election, leave a comment in the comments section. but until then, cheers, my friends.”