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$10,000,000 Bitcoin is early 0.2% adoption is optimistic 50 years of acceleration Let’s begin 👇 $900 trillion global assets and $2 trillion of Bitcoin at $100k a coin… 0.22% of the globe’s assets. 0.2% of the world’s people is 16,000,000 people. There are 4,000,000 addresses with over 0.1 BTC and about 2,000,000 hardware wallets sold globally… so probably about 1,000,000 people have at least 0.1 BTC in cold storage. Based on on-chain data I expect there are less than 250,000 multi-wholecoiners. 250,000 multi-wholecoiners 750,000 between 0.1 and 1.99 BTC 15,000,000 less than 0.1 Most of those 15,000,000 probably have less than $1,000 in exchanges, ETFs, or some other form of paper BTC. Beyond that maybe you could argue there are another 50,000,000 people that own less than $100 of BTC somewhere… sure, but I wouldn’t call them adopters in the same way I wouldn’t call someone who has only been on the internet thrice an internet adopter. Given that @saylor has 4.1 million followers, Bitcoin Reddit has 7.7 million followers, and exchange data this all seems directionally correct. Let us say this is all right… 0.2% global adoption seems reasonable the minus one glaring problem: real life anecdotes. 1) Take your city’s population. 2) Divide it by 500. That is how many people in your city have over $1,000 of Bitcoin. 3) Divide it by 8,000. That is how many people in your city have ever done self custody with over 0.1 BTC. 4) Divide it by 24,000. That is how many self custody multi-wholecoiners in your city. This math still seems optimistic to me. Look at a city with 3,000,000 people: 6,000 have BTC 375 self custody 93 multi-wholecoiners I have been to dozens of Bitcoin meetups, retreats, and conferences… The per capita numbers ALWAYS seem way smaller than this. (Keep in mind most of these cities have a conference in the first place because presumably these places have a higher per capita adoption than the rest of the world!) Even more-so the nature of Bitcoin is that it creates new markets. Bitcoin will never reach full market adoption because it’s nature is to expand the free market itself… forever. This entire discussion and BTC price action is debating if Bitcoin is 1/500th or 1/700th of the way to a checkpoint 10x smaller than the future. It’s comically early. People that say Bitcoin is at 1% adoption are living in a delusion that doesn’t exist… No way there are 80,000,000 people chasing self custody Bitcoin. The fiat price and blockspace usage would both be so much higher. I think they are off by somewhere between 30x to 80x fold. The people that say we have “crossed the chasm” of 2.5% adoption are insane… The internet is only at 65% adoption and you’re telling me Bitcoin is 1/26th of the way there? Go in the real world, absolutely not! Bitcoin to 1% adoption is probably well over a 30x in nominal price… $3,000,000 per coin. Bitcoin at 2.5% adoption is probably a long ways away given it would be a 10x in users. Probably well over $10,000,000 nominal per Bitcoin. The longer you stare at this thing the less you see realized price and the more you see unrealized potential. You are terrifyingly early… We are 0.2% into bicycle adoption while we are trying to envision a car, most are walking maxis thinking a bicycle is too dangerous, and reality is that nobody is even dreaming of a super-sonic jet. Time moves 2x faster now. Time between the bicycle being 30 years old and the super sonic jet: 100 years 2025-2075 will be breakneck acceleration.