Reader • Writing about value investing & the best onchain opportunities

Joined May 2020
Updated my website and made public a few tools I built for myself. Feel free to check it out: bitcoineo.io/
Your personal website is the new resume
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I've been saying this for ages: You DON'T want a casino in your pocket. If you're trading on your phone, you're gonna lose it all. Same goes for prediction markets and betting apps. Gambling is a tax on the poor. It'll destroy you the same way alcohol, drug or sex addiction would. No wonder Buffett said we'd be better off if we could only make 20 investments in our entire lifetime. Resist the urge to press buttons.
Pumpfun is philosophically opposed to doing anything but mass extraction and destruction of their own user base @a1lon9 is the most untrustworthy, by far, founder in crypto There is no universe where onchain comes back as long as guys like him have clout
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Add to this "Earn" tab, ideally using Portfolio Margin. Golden rule is to try out everything new Jeff ships. Usually, it's more risky and not always worth it. But with Hyperliquid, you have: 1. Execution god 2. Profitable business 3. 20% left of HYPE supply to distribute So if something goes wrong on their side, you'll be more than compensated.
if you’re in crypto and not trading prediction markets on HIP-4, Hyperliquid’s newest markets with barely any volume or activity, after they mentioned airdrops 7 times to the SEC this week, you are financially irresponsible
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Funny how Noise and GTE left Mega after Shuyao and the team did everything to help them raise and get initial traction. Since then, radio silence. What's happening? Feels like Mega wasn't the issue after all (its only sin is having a token that's down). At least the team didn't betray its values and work ethic.
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The bull case for PEARL goes hard only if you haven't spent enough time thinking about Bitcoin and why it's a store of value. Bitcoin isn't valuable because of its tech. Yes, 2026 tech will be better and more suited to AI economies. Time is what makes Bitcoin valuable. Fair distribution. Network effects. The second best token is ETH. Then comes ZEC (in that order). If you think Bitcoin will fail (high chances of happening imo), what's the next sov? Another token OR a new asset? Compute is a real candidate. I'd prefer a decentralized, trustless alternative tho. Anyway, PEARL is a cool short term play, congrats to all Token2049 participants who got in early.
44% of public miners' MW is contracted to AI/HPC in 2026-28, as they pivot toward more profitable operations leveraging sites for AI. With mining costs already near $75k and the 2028 halving approaching, this will only worsen. Pearl's FP8 removes this risk. Instead of forcing miners to choose between mining BTC or providing inference (useful work they get paid for), they can do both: mining PRL requires the same matrix calculations as AI inference. As public companies that maximize the value of their hardware, it's clear to me that these players will mine Pearl in addition to their inference work. There are three bull cases for this: 1. Store-of-value assets lack clear valuation frameworks, and hashrate is the "hardest" quantifiable metric available. While not an ideal comparison, Pearl, with significant hashrate from miners that opt in, would be extremely undervalued on this basis. 2. Alternative SOVs have emerged as alternatives to BTC, attempting to solve some of the issues its ossification presents. These assets have, however, been constrained on the network security and hashrate side. Pearl, by making hashrate acquisition trivial, removes this constraint, allowing innovation in newer SOVs without the security bottleneck. Like ZEC, for example, Pearl is also targeting quantum resistance. 3. Alignment. Assets like BTC gain value because others believe in them and give them value (e.g., why does ZEC have more value than XMR?). Just as naturally as existing BTC miners will provide security for Pearl, it follows from the same first-principles thinking that they maximize their expected value, and so they become strong and powerful advocates of the coin. This makes a compelling bull case: Pearl, like ZEC, is a modern SOV that is able to react to a changing technological landscape, targeting things like quantum and potentially privacy. However, it also has no network security concerns, a very clear path for hashrate and network security expansion, and will likely have huge BTC miners and potentially AI data centers as advocates. It is also 1/30th the market cap of ZEC. At the end of the day it is ultimately just a memecoin (like BTC). But a memecoin with an incredibly compelling narrative, and likely a narrative very influental entities will rally behind.
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Everyone has their own opinion on Papertrade and the recent update. But I love how they show all the data and stats in their UI and let users customize the layout. I hope this becomes the standard for new defi protocols and onchain experiments. Thanks Jez!
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nothing new under the sun stop playing stupid games
Memecoin ATH market cap charts over the years. Notice anything?
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Capital efficient strategy if you want to accumulate HYPE at lower prices: Instead of placing stink bids as limit orders, use a sub-account with portfolio margin to run the HYPE basis trade. Buy spot HYPE, short the same amount 10x, and place scale-out orders to reduce your short position as HYPE goes down. That way, you earn around 10% APR instead of having idle capital waiting to be filled. (do that only if you understand how PM on hyperliquid works and you're confy with executing delta neutral strategies)
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As portfolio margin usage grows on @HyperliquidX, USDC yield goes up. It will attract more capital to arbitrage with aave/morpho rates, increase TVL + limits, and boost HYPE buybacks since circle deal. Nice tech.
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There is no free lunch. This is a pvp game. When everyone is making money, step back and think about what will go wrong.
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unfortunately, zero. with infinite dilution theres no reason to keep feeding rewards back into the game once most people start withdrawing what they earn instead of burning it in the casino, volumes gonna fall off a cliff
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It's nice to have conviction on your bags but don't say stupid things like that, it's counterproductive for a research firm. Amazon return per share since IPO (2y after Bezos left his parent's garage): 3333x That'd put each HYPE at 264,000$.
Buying HYPE under $100 is like buying Amazon when Jeff was still running the company out of his parents garage.
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A week ago, CT was: - denominating in ZEC - buying ENA, STRK and CHIP
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(Study your knee-jerk reaction to this tweet, it might help)
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I feel exactly the same way: It's hard to be a long-term investor when the world is at an inflection point and every belief is being shaken. The only megatrends left are compute, energy, weapons, the silver tsunami, and global warming. Yay... That being said, we're insanely lucky and privileged as crypto investors: we've learned to adapt to chaos, spot new opportunities quickly, and survive. And we likely have 10x the wealth of the people we grew up with. Optimism doesn’t come easily, but we have to hold on to it, because there’s no alternative. And if we can't change the world, we can still change the lives of the people we love, including our own.
how to learn long term optimism and planning? I think before I was able to zoom out, but last few years clearly changed my brain. So my current feelings are that world is bad, there are multiple wars going on that feels like will never end, one of them affects my family, puts more stress. Oil prices are high, Trump is president, very immoral and selfish people in power, inflation seems like will never be under control, universities seems useless because now there’s AI, so current education system seems weird. When it comes to investing and believing in something, especially in crypto how to even do that? I found myself in such disbelief, it feels like good times will never come. Was speaking to some of irl friends and they feel similar about the world.
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Might be the only chart you need to outperform most. Start DCAing when lines cross, stake and forget. Pretty much it.
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Sold everything: I have way too many questions and my mind isn't clear enough to answer most of them. Will take a few weeks off markets to observe and think. Survival first.
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I don't like this about me, but I'm getting more and more triggered by people using intellectual jargon like "Jevon's paradox", "Roko's basilisk", "Occam’s razor" etc. as if everyone knew what they meant. These people usually have a sense of superiority and believe using complex wording makes them smarter. It does not. The answer is always to simplify.
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