There is literally zero chance that BTC ETF options will reduce volatility in the future. Z.E.R.O. From my H1 Letter:

"Wen printer" is going viral again. "Soon," surface pundits say. But this time, it might actually be different. We're not going to get emergency cuts (at least based on credit spreads). Let me explain (and why the set up for $BTC is unbelievably powerful) - The GFC of 2008 was squarely the fault of US negligence. COVID 2020 was the fault of God, so no one to blame. In each case, there was either a clear perpetrator or none that made policy action easier to justify, so came swift action- But this current spiral of 2024 is seemingly led by Japan, which from the US perspective requires an international cooperation context in addition to its own domestic economic desires. And while the Fed supposedly only has the mandate to control rates based on 1) stable price and 2) unemployment, we all know that that is a blatant lie and that the US rates is deeply intertwined with the rest of the world. So the US cannot just cut rates on their own without offending ROW. It has real ripple effects to a country like Japan, who has been given a once in a lifetime opportunity to potentially revitalize its economy (or so they thought). That brings us to the Plaza Accord of 1985. Contrary to popular Western myth, Japan didn't mysteriously enter into "the lost decades" of stagnation by itself randomly. The Plaza Accord was an unprecedented (now rarely mentioned) weaponization of the dollar by the US to dethrone Japan's economic leadership - via USD depreciation. This is where the now widely popularized "Carry Trade" was bourn, compounded by a series of mistakes by the BoJ, and how the social contract between the two countries were forever set in stone as America willed: "you fund our debt for life, and we will give you military protection given you still need to repent for the sins of WWII". The Japanese agreed. So this rate cut isn't actually just about weak US economy data. It's about the very core of the modern financial architecture, with thirty years of pent up artificial suppression and stealing - stealing from the youth, from the asset-poor, and I'm going to make the case here - from Japan. This is why I am so bullish about Bitcoin's set up. When we talk about $BTC as a tool to provide "financial inclusion", we often talk about countries like Argentina, India and other emerging markets. But actually, Japan, a developed country years ahead of the US in the inevitable financial experiments to zero rates, is the country that needs rescue the most. Japan is the country that benefits the most by re-pegging their monetary policies away from the dollar. Their problem is a structural leadership issue that is deeply cultural (top-down, group consensus), and incurably- the fact that they don't have young people. This is also related to the nonsensical yappery about how $BTC becoming part of the US Treasury's reserve is going to save the US debt burden. It's not that simple - the US Treasury's reserves are set up to first and foremost, promote tools to stabilize international FX markets to conduct trade. "Store of value" is a tertiary interest, if at all; the reason gold is so large on the balance sheet is because of its historical anomaly in which once upon a time, it was used to peg USD value, not the other away around of how $BTC would be introduced as a "store of value". The US doesn't get to escape their problem on their own. So in summary, that's why I'm super bullish $BTC over the medium term. Not today, and likely not tomorrow, but still much sooner than I expected in my own lifetime. This financial crisis is the mother crisis, the original sin - and it's global, generational, geopolitical. Even without a global implosion, the narrative will be out and people will wake up to why $BTC is valuable. Once the selling pressure ends, out of the ashes will emerge the most glorious phoenix the modern financial world has ever known - and rise rise rise we will.