Investor | Trend-follower. Risk first. Process over prediction. U.S. stocks & crypto. Daily notes and positioning → link：https://teapawt.net/t.co/YcGlWXsZIA
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Joined February 2018
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Blackwell retweeted
I’m 72. I started with $420,000 more than 40 years ago, and my assets are now worth over $100 million.
Here are the 8 rules I use. Save them for the next time one of your stocks makes a big move.
① Before I buy, I write down what I expect the business to do and what would prove me wrong. Two sentences usually do it.
② Down 5%, I check the news and the rest of the sector. If they all fell together and nothing changed at the company, I usually leave it alone.
③ Down 15%, I reread the latest earnings report. Did customers pull back? Did margins shrink? I want an answer before I put another dollar in.
④ Down 25%, I ask myself how much I’d buy today if I owned zero shares. If my answer is zero, I can live with my original cost basis.
⑤ Up 5%, I let it sit. If I bought it for three years, one good afternoon doesn’t change much.
⑥ Up 15%, I check whether my earnings estimate has moved too. I’m happy to hold a stock at a price where I wouldn’t buy more.
⑦ Up 25% or 35%, I look at how much of my account that one stock now represents. If a reversal would make me lose sleep, I trim enough to sleep.
⑧ On a short-term trade, I keep the planned loss at my stop to 1% of my account or less. If the trade needs a wider stop, I buy fewer shares.
I’m 72. I started with $420,000 more than 40 years ago, and my assets are now worth over $100 million.
Here are the 8 rules I use. Save them for the next time one of your stocks makes a big move.
① Before I buy, I write down what I expect the business to do and what would prove me wrong. Two sentences usually do it.
② Down 5%, I check the news and the rest of the sector. If they all fell together and nothing changed at the company, I usually leave it alone.
③ Down 15%, I reread the latest earnings report. Did customers pull back? Did margins shrink? I want an answer before I put another dollar in.
④ Down 25%, I ask myself how much I’d buy today if I owned zero shares. If my answer is zero, I can live with my original cost basis.
⑤ Up 5%, I let it sit. If I bought it for three years, one good afternoon doesn’t change much.
⑥ Up 15%, I check whether my earnings estimate has moved too. I’m happy to hold a stock at a price where I wouldn’t buy more.
⑦ Up 25% or 35%, I look at how much of my account that one stock now represents. If a reversal would make me lose sleep, I trim enough to sleep.
⑧ On a short-term trade, I keep the planned loss at my stop to 1% of my account or less. If the trade needs a wider stop, I buy fewer shares.
I share 2–3 stocks worth watching every week
along with market insights and investment research. Want to see what we're watching?
Click the link 👇
stockso.live/97hspa
to connect with me and learn more.
I’ve put together a free stock investing guide for beginners. Here’s what’s inside:
• How stock investing works
• How to research your first stock, step by step
• My stock watchlist and why each company made the list
• How to size a position and manage risk
• A simple way to plan when to enter and exit a trade
I can’t send the files here, but you can DM me “X” and I’ll send you an invite. Or join through the link in my bio.
$1 million in $VOO or $1 million in $CHPY? One shows about $10,600 in annual distributions. The other shows $497,500. Which would you rather own?
Here’s how 15 ETFs stack up using their trailing 12-month payouts and the latest available U.S. prices through Nov. 11, 2026. The quotes were taken at different times, so the dollar amounts are approximate.
$VOO · 1.06% · $10,600
$VIG · 1.45% · $14,500
$SCHD · 2.94% · $29,400
$DIVO · 6.40% · $64,000
$BALI · 7.89% · $78,900
$TDVI · 8.01% · $80,100
$GPIX · 8.37% · $83,700
$TYLG · 9.09% · $90,900
$OVL · 9.59% · $95,900
$GPIQ · 10.67% · $106,700
$JEPQ · 12.14% · $121,400
$QQQI · 14.69% · $146,900
$SPUC · 15.80% · $158,000
$AMZP · 18.74% · $187,400
$CHPY · 49.75% · $497,500
That $497,500 is the number that made me look twice. It’s what a $1M position at the quoted price would pay if the past year’s distributions repeated. Payouts can change, and some funds can distribute part of your capital back to you. I’d also want to know what my shares were worth after those payments.
@grok Pick one to hold for five years. Which ticker gets your $1M, and why?
Buffett's first investment has nothing to do with the market. It is communication.
He tells students that while they are learning complicated formulas, they are overlooking the skill with the biggest payoff. Learn to communicate better, in writing and in person, and your value rises by at least 50%.
Without it, the best idea in the room does nothing. His image for it is a man winking at a girl in the dark. Nothing happens.
The good news is that it can be learned. Buffett took a Dale Carnegie course himself, and he still jokes that he should have taken a longer one.
Why this one? Because nobody can take it from you.
Follow me for more investing insights.
I share 2–3 stocks worth watching every week, along with market insights and investment research. Want to see what we're watching?
Click the link stockso.live/97hspa to connect with me and learn more.
Blackwell retweeted
Six rules for picking stocks, attributed to Warren Buffett. He does not use them.
There is no forward P/E in his process. There is no PEG ratio. He has said plainly that forecasts tell you a great deal about the forecaster and nothing about the future, and both of those metrics are forecasts.
What he actually says he looks for is four things: a business he can understand, a durable competitive advantage, honest and able management, and a sensible price.
Notice what is missing. No screen, no threshold, no ratio below 25.
The checklist is easy to share and easy to disprove.
Six rules for picking stocks, attributed to Warren Buffett. He does not use them.
There is no forward P/E in his process. There is no PEG ratio. He has said plainly that forecasts tell you a great deal about the forecaster and nothing about the future, and both of those metrics are forecasts.
What he actually says he looks for is four things: a business he can understand, a durable competitive advantage, honest and able management, and a sensible price.
Notice what is missing. No screen, no threshold, no ratio below 25.
The checklist is easy to share and easy to disprove.
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community.
To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
121
Optical module stocks still printing strong earnings while the share prices have been crushed.
Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink and TFC are the ones most tied to Nvidia’s AI interconnect demand. Profits have stayed solid, yet the stocks have dropped roughly 70% in a few months.
The market is pricing in a solar-style outcome: overcapacity, industry slowdown, and eventual margin compression.
Solar has been stuck in that cycle since 2022. Investors have seen this movie before and are not waiting around to find out if optics ends the same way.
The question is whether the Nvidia-driven CPO and 1.6T demand is different enough, or just delaying the same result.
Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin can ignore each other for days. Then one CPI print drops and suddenly they’re all trading the same news.
Before the 8:30 a.m. ET release, I wrote down the two numbers the market was expecting:
• Headline CPI: up 0.3% month over month
• Core CPI: up 0.2% month over month
From there, I wanted to see how Treasury yields and the dollar reacted, and whether the moves in gold, Nasdaq futures, and BTC held up after the first few minutes.
A hotter reading can push rate expectations higher, but some of that may already be priced in. That’s why I like to give the market a few minutes before deciding whether there’s a trade worth taking.
Link in bio. Click and send to get the full list.
#CPI #TradFi #USStocks #BTC
Why do great investors live so long? 🏆
Buffett is 96, Soros is 96, and both are still alive. Irving Kahn lived to 109, Roy Neuberger to 107, Munger to 99, Fisher to 96, Templeton to 95…
The eight masters who have passed away lived to an average age of 97.6, about 20 years longer than men of their generation.
Three reasons:
1️⃣ An investor’s temperament is a longevity temperament: emotionally stable, patient and disciplined, not chasing rallies or panicking in sell-offs. That’s less self-inflicted stress over decades.
2️⃣ Wealth is a health buffer: freedom with your time, less stress, better access to healthcare.
3️⃣ Survivorship bias: greatness takes forty years of compounding to prove. If you don’t live long enough, you’ll never live to be called a “master.”
You have to live long enough first to have a chance at greatness.
For ordinary people, health is your principal, and longevity itself is a form of investment skill.
I’m 72, going on 73. I hope I make it to 100 and get to count myself among the great investors someday.
IS THIS THE STRANGEST WALL STREET COINCIDENCE?
Jeff Bezos’ affair became public in 2019. $AMZN went from ~$800-900B to $2.8T.
Bill Gates’ affair in 2021. $MSFT went from ~$1.9T to $3.94T.
Now Jensen Huang has admitted an affair and $NVDA ’s board opened an investigation. The company is already ~$4.5T.
But look at the short-term reactions in past cases:
• $HPQ (Mark Hurd): -10% after hours, -8% next day
• $BBY (Brian Dunn): -6% that day
• $INTC (Brian Krzanich): -2.4% that day
• $AMZN (Bezos): only -1.6%
The more central the person, the more shares they own, and the more the affair touches company business, the bigger the short-term hit.
Long-term recovery is possible. Short-term key person risk is still real.
How are you sizing this for $NVDA?
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community. To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
230
Pre-market is quiet, but the setup is not.
Futures mixed. CPI at 8:30 AM ET. $NVDA still digesting the Jensen Huang investigation.
I’m not rushing the open.
Same rules as always:
• Keep planned loss at 1% or less
• No chasing the first green candles
• Cash is still a position
What are you watching into the open?
Link in bio. Click and send to get the full list.
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community. To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
154
Invest $1,000 a month in China’s CSI 300 or the S&P 500 starting in 2005, and the early years tell a very different story.
Through 2012, the S&P 500 looked like the wrong choice.
It’s easy to pick the winner looking back. Much harder to keep buying while it spends years trailing the alternative.
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community. To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
172
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community. To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
111
Yeah, this one sneaks up on you. You make some money, leave it in the account, then see another trade you like. Before you know it, you’ve put it all back in.
Seen a lot of people do this when they’re starting out. They had a good trade, but never set any of the profits aside. A few weeks later, most of it’s gone, and it’s back to “I’ll be more disciplined next time.”
I share 2–3 stock ideas each week, along with buy/sell signals, pre-market analysis, and the reasoning and risks behind each idea in my free WhatsApp community.
To join, contact me through the link below and send something. I’ll help you join the community.
stockso.live/97hspa
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