Institutional-grade crypto analytics, data and research for digital assets. Next-gen intelligence for next-gen markets. https://xitter.cf/t.co/wF9Ro8W6J5 https://xitter.cf/t.co/nTrHauS2bR
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📊 Rate Hikes, Midterms and Prediction Markets | 27 Oct
🗳️ 91.5% Polymarket odds of a Democratic House; 64.5% for the Senate
📉 0.1 vol pts election premium in BTC options vs 10.8 pts before the 2024 vote
🏛️ 3.1% odds the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026
🏦 75.5% odds of a Dec Fed hike after September's 25bp move
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📊 Daily Comment | 27 Oct
Anthropic's IPO filing revived the AI trade.
🤖 $97.5B equity raise planned by Meta, hours before Anthropic filed for its Nasdaq IPO (ANT)
📈 +0.70% S&P 500, +1.09% Nasdaq-100, chip index up close to 3%
₿ $110.3M into spot BTC ETFs as BTC held $79K-$81K; $88.6M out of ETH ETFs
🏦 6.05M ETH at Bitmine after +10,452; Strategy paused BTC buys after 5 weeks
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📊 Block Scholes Implied Volatility Index (BSIV) | 27 October 2026
30-day constant maturity · BTC · ETH · SOL
🟠 BTC: 41.2% (▲ 0.4 pts · 7d)
🟣 ETH: 56.0% (▲ 0.9 pts · 7d)
🟢 SOL: 60.1% (▼ 7.9 pts · 7d)
🏦 Tech fundraising lifted the AI trade: Anthropic (Claude) filed for a Nasdaq IPO (ticker ANT); Meta eyeing up to $97.5B, Broadcom a $63B chip deal, SpaceX $40B
📉 Crypto vol drifting lower — SOL leading, BTC/ETH flat near $80K — even as the Fed decides tomorrow (Oct 28), now inside the 30d window
📲 Crypto vol & risk signals: t.me/blockscholes
📊 Altcoins Analytics | 26 Oct
ZEC led altcoin ETF inflows; BTC ETFs gave back $773M late in the week.
🏦 +$305M net into BTC ETFs after $1.08B Mon–Wed; ETH ETFs −$221M
💰 $41.1M into ZEC ETFs, money in on 4 of 5 days; ZEC +5% vs BTC −1%
🔄 1.36% of mcap: NEAR's 20d ETF inflow, still incl. its $36.0M launch day (out 27 Oct)
📊 56% of top-50 alts beat BTC over 90d, short of the 75% altseason line
📲 blockscholes.com/premium-res…
📊 Daily Comment | 26 Oct
Oil's rally dragged risk assets lower as Trump weighed an Iran deal.
🛢️ $114: Brent's level after nearing $118 late last week; Dow -1.2%, S&P 500 -0.52%
🇮🇷 Trump: "getting to be decision time" on an Iran deal ahead of the midterms
₿ $772.4M pulled from US spot BTC ETFs Thu–Fri; BTC back below $80K
🏦 Fed, ECB and BoJ all meet this week, all three expected to hold
📲 blockscholes.com/premium-res…
📊 Block Scholes Implied Volatility Index (BSIV) | 26 October 2026
30-day constant maturity · BTC · ETH · SOL
🟠 BTC: 41.3% (▼ 0.6 pts · 7d)
🟣 ETH: 56.7% (▼ 0.6 pts · 7d)
🟢 SOL: 62.7% (▼ 5.4 pts · 7d)
🛢️ An oil rally dragged risk lower: Brent hit ~$118 before settling ~$114, lifting yields; S&P -0.52%, Dow -1.2% Fri; UMich sentiment at a 5-month low of 48
📉 BTC slid back below $80K after $772.4M left US spot BTC ETFs Thu–Fri (vs $1B+ inflows earlier) — yet 30d vol barely moved, FOMC 2 days out
📲 Crypto vol & risk signals: t.me/blockscholes
📊 BlockScholes Data: Cross-Exchange Options Volume Update
Across three exchanges over the past week:
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🟠 BTC: Daily turnover ranged $1.2B-$5.9B over the past week, peaking at $5.9B on 20 Oct. Calls took the larger share at 53% of volume.
💎 ETH: Daily turnover ranged $728M-$1.5B over the past week, peaking at $1.5B on 16 Oct. Calls took the larger share at 58% of volume.
🟣 SOL: Daily turnover ranged $48M-$179M over the past week, peaking at $179M on 20 Oct. Calls and puts were close to evenly split.
🔷 HYPE: Daily turnover ranged $15M-$96M over the past week, peaking at $96M on 22 Oct. Calls took the larger share at 69% of volume.
📊 Daily Comment | 23 Oct
Uniswap v4 can now route trades through Curve, Fluid & PancakeSwap liquidity.
📉 -6.72% Philly Semis; all 30 members fell after Meta, Tesla & Lam Research earnings
🏛️ -17bps on the 10Y UST to 4.96%, biggest one-day drop since Mar 2023
💸 $635.5M BTC ETF outflows Thu, the largest since Jun 25
🏦 4.4% APY on SoFi's new tokenised deposit, FDIC-insured, 1:1 into SoFiUSD
📲 blockscholes.com/premium-res…
📊 Block Scholes Implied Volatility Index (BSIV) | 23 October 2026
30-day constant maturity · BTC · ETH · SOL
🟠 BTC: 40.1% (▲ 1.4 pts · 7d)
🟣 ETH: 54.9% (▼ 1.2 pts · 7d)
🟢 SOL: 61.2% (▼ 4.2 pts · 7d)
🏦 Hot Sept CPI at 3.7% y/y (vs 3.6%) has markets pricing ~81% the Fed holds at the Oct 28 FOMC, with a December hike now the likely move
📉 Yet a live Fed meeting now sits inside the 30d window and crypto vol is flat — BTC 30d little changed near $82–83K, SOL easing
📲 Crypto vol & risk signals: t.me/blockscholes
📊 Crypto Risk Appetite | 22 Oct
ETH sentiment fades as ETF outflows mount, while BTC holds steady.
📉 0.82 ETH Risk-Appetite Index, down from 0.94 a week ago
🏦 $1.08B ETH ETF outflows in Oct, the largest monthly outflow of 2026
💵 $526.7M into BTC ETFs on 19 Oct, the biggest day since 22 Sep
⚖️ 0.97 BTC Index, little changed as spot holds an $80K-$87K range
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📊 Daily Comment | 22 Oct
Oil jumps on a Houthi attack as BTC's breakout fades.
🛢️ $111.64 Brent, +2.6% after a Houthi drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oilfield
📉 $84.8K BTC peak on Wed, now back at $81.8K (-3.6%) as chip stocks sold off
🏦 1st GENIUS Act rules: OCC drops curbs on third-party stablecoin rewards
⚡ 150ms Solana finality after Alpenglow, down from 12.8 seconds
📲 blockscholes.com/premium-res…
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📊 Block Scholes Implied Volatility Index (BSIV) | 22 October 2026
30-day constant maturity · BTC · ETH · SOL
🟠 BTC: 40.1% (▼ 2.0 pts · 7d)
🟣 ETH: 54.2% (▼ 2.6 pts · 7d)
🟢 SOL: 61.1% (▼ 5.7 pts · 7d)
💻 First big-tech earnings disappointed on AI spending: Tesla -3.3% after-hours (op income -56% y/y), Lam Research -7%; SK Hynix -6% overnight
📉 Crypto vol kept easing: BTC rejected $84K back to $81.8K but 30d IV fell and downside demand stayed muted — 7d BTC risk reversal -1.2 vs a -4.6 put premium on Oct 18
📲 Crypto vol & risk signals: t.me/blockscholes
📊 Altcoins Analytics | 19 Oct
NEAR's new ETF leads altcoin ETF inflows as BTC and ETH ETFs see outflows.
🆕 $83.0M into the new NEAR ETF since 29 Sep; $11.6M last week, top among alt ETFs
🏦 $229M BTC ETF net outflows (12–16 Oct); ETH ETFs –$320M
📉 32.0% altcoin dominance, down from 33.6% a week ago
🧭 58% of top-50 alts beat BTC over 90 days, up from 48% a month ago
📲 blockscholes.com/premium-res…
📊 Daily Comment | 16 Oct
Markets now price an 85% chance the Fed holds in October after Warsh's remarks.
🏦 85% Oct pause odds, up from 72% after Warsh flagged AI-led price pressure
📈 S&P 500 +0.33%, ending a three-day decline as dip buyers returned
⚠️ CoreWeave 5Y CDS above 1,140bps, up 164% YoY; its 2031 bond yields 15.78%
₿ BTC back at $82.1K after a dip below $80K; ETH +3.4% to $2,450
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Block Scholes Implied Volatility Index (BSIV) | 13 October 2026
30-day constant maturity · BTC · ETH · SOL
BTC: 38.8% (▲ 1.8 pts · 7d) — Low vol
ETH: 54.8% (▲ 6.0 pts · 7d) — Below-average vol
SOL: 60.5% (▲ 3.4 pts · 7d) — Low vol
A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's international airport on Saturday 10 October, and attacks on two tankers near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude 1.8% higher to $106.65 on Monday, its highest settle since 15 September (Reuters). Crypto trades through the weekend: 30-day implied vol on BTC, ETH and SOL rose on Saturday evening (UTC), before oil futures reopened on Sunday.
Crypto vol & risk signals: t.me/blockscholes
