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"you learn everything about a man from how he gives praise," winning vs. losing attitudes, the zero-sum mentality, and "volto sciolto, pensieri stretti." 1/6 this tweet itself is okay, but the 2nd paragraph is put perfectly: "...finds out an acquaintance recently bought a huge house, says something innocent like 'omg that's a dream' to him. The guy who loves himself naturally responds with lightness. Says 'that's amazing, I'm so stoked for them, there's so many beautiful things in the world and he genuinely means it.' The Guy who doesn't will always give off some sort of energetic tell that maybe reveals he's jealous, punctures his confidence, makes a remark like "probably family money" or something etc" my take: >1st man vs 2nd man, sums up winning vs losing attitude >why do you learn about a man from how he gives praise...because the 1st one gives it, but the 2nd one either never will, or its "poison praise," or its clearly insincere >the 1st you don't have to think about, you know it when you're around it, and you're naturally drawn to them. >its the 2nd that you have to focus on, there are a lot more of them in general, they drain your energy at best and sabotage you at worst. 2/6 the hallmark traits/behaviors are basically: envy, fixed mindset, everything is zero sum, victim mentality, insecurity, passive aggressive, gossip, ill-natured, never genuinely wishes people well like the 1st guy you tend to feel a negative energy, negative vibes, in their presence, which there aren't always words for, but which have to be obeyed the issue here is that these attitudes run deep and are unfixable. either something is genetic or went wrong at a young age, and now these are the glasses thru which they view the world. you cannot replace their glasses no matter how hard you try. 3/6 many a man has suffered from letting envious types get too close and remain too close for years, getting quietly sabotaged the entire time the bulletproof method of detecting envy, is to watch someone real close as they hear: "xyz good news happened to someone else." all their microexpressions, smiles, gestures, it will all look fucked up because the true emotions are negative this is "I wish I knew this 15 years ago" type game. you only need to observe it a few times and you'll get the answer...which you prob already knew. and unfortunately, while I believe in the human capacity for change, attitude is something that runs too deep. it is fixed and immutable, a man's entire life and all his circumstances will be filtered through that attitude before they hit the conscious mind. 4/6 a losing attitude cannot be made into a winning one, a person with a victim mentality is comfortable with that wiring...they have a functional filtering system for dealing with life (blame, wallow, attack others, envy etc), and you're not going to reprogram that out of them. I have tried, don't waste your time. the hard part here is that in your 20's you will have various crews, and these crews will inevitably have these dudes in them. the way you handle it is to have rings, like a planet in the solar system. you're cordial with everyone...but some you keep out at Pluto length, whereas the warm attitudes get in closer, like the Sun. all done silently of course, and where you trust your gut instinct/energy on this with zero regard for what everyone else says or thinks. because no one else is exercising critical thought. surface level shit, family, education, money, job, etc...attitude rises above ALL of those. it has zero correlation to anything. you will meet people born into upper .0001% circumstances that are afflicted with the worst envy and the most horrible negativity towards others that you've ever encountered. "attitude is everything" 5/6 whatever your internal ranking system says, go by that, and keep it all to yourself. this is lord chesterfield's "volto sciolto, pensieri stretti" -- open face, concealed thoughts. some people you just won't like. but if you make it obvious to them that you don't like them, nothing good comes of it as you get older the circle tends to shrink, it becomes easier to just choose the 10-20 most wonderful attitudes you've ever met, surround urself with them, and then go "no new friends" after that. munger preaches this regularly: "find the good ones, and then keep the rest the hell out." its not malice, its just the recognition that some people are only going to bring you down, and they can't help it...a la scorpion/frog 6/6 but building out this sort of anti-aircraft system internally, where u learn to recognize and detect bad attitudes and then keep them at arms length, all while remaining cordial, and without tipping your hand...that is a life superskill my friend it may not sound like it but thats because these are all ROIC-negative situations, its all risk mgmt, the avoidance of the bad. and I guarantee that even if this all reads well, you will have to fuck it up in person at least once, and then it'll sink in: "damn dog...NOW I understand that tweet." after that hopefully u wise up. make it just one landmine and one landmine only that u step on to learn the lesson...because a lot of the stuff in here, is from me having to step on 50 of those motherfuckers back-to-back, glued to beliefs like "people want to be positive," "people want to change," and "I can help people change." all that shit is false bro. most people don't want to change, you cannot change other people, and a negative attitude is like a deep, cushy beanbag chair...they're comfy in there and they ain't getting out. so let them be. and while you do, remember: "volto sciolto, pensieri stretti" 🫢

Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech . . . Surprise 2: that person is me Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post …and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline ------- Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere. The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases. Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat. In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally. Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants). In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model. From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team. Why join Anthropic? Three reasons. (1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work. (2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter. (3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing. Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit. Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest). Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI. Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have. It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way. But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember... Gotta Cure 'Em All

Everyone keeps a list of unicorns. Nobody keeps a list of what happened next. So we did. 🦄📉 440+ startups once worth $1 billion or more. Not anymore. Over $1.4 trillion of valuation, gone. Meet the Unitard Index: unitard.io

SANTOS JUST DRILLED A 58-YARDER TO GO UP TWO POSSESSIONS. NEvsCHI on Prime Video Stream on @NFLPlus

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

The "New Build" equity trap is officially wiping out suburban homeowners in real-time. 🧵 If you know of someone who is considering a new build, send this to them! Let's look at the brutal anatomy of a single cul-de-sac at Almond Blossom Circle in Crowley, TX. If you drive by, it looks like a picture-perfect, upscale development. If you look at the raw property data, it’s a localized liquidation zone. Here is the exact inventory breakdown on this one street: • 2 homes are already fully foreclosed on and bank-owned. • 1 home is actively drowning in the foreclosure pipeline. • 2 brand-new builds are sitting completely vacant, never lived in, desperate for buyers. • 3 to 4 homes total are actively jammed onto the market competing for a dried-up buyer pool. If you purchase a home today without checking the micro-data of the neighborhood, you are signing up to be $30,000 to $40,000 upside down within 12 months. Here is the harsh reality of how early buyers are getting completely destroyed: The builder doesn't care about your home value. The market turned, interest rates are sitting over 6.5%, and the builder has to move volume. To clear their books, the builders are dumping their remaining brand-new builds for tens of thousands of dollars less than what the original phase-one buyers paid just two years ago. 💸 The builder undercut the neighborhood ceiling. The early buyers are immediately trapped in negative equity, unable to refinance, and facing high property taxes on an asset that is actively losing value. You cannot judge the health of a housing market by a clean suburban facade. The paper math is a lie, and the builders will cannibalize their own buyers to save themselves. Look at the pipeline or get burned. 🧠 #HousingMarket #NewConstruction #RealEstate #Foreclosures #anttsinc

🚨 BEFORE YOU BUY, DO THIS ONE THING 🚨 Or you could end up trapped in your new house. When you or your realtor pull comps on Zillow, Redfin, or the MLS, everyone looks at what’s for sale. But NOBODY is tracking the hidden danger in that exact same radius: pre-foreclosures. 🛑 I do foreclosure inspections. I’ll walk into a tiny neighborhood radius and hit a handful—sometimes a DOZEN—houses hitting that 120-day (4-month) delinquency mark. They are sitting there like financial time bombs. Why does this matter? If you buy into a neighborhood with a high concentration of pre-foreclosures, you are at massive risk of being immediately upside down after you move in. You become a hostage to your mortgage because the neighborhood value is about to crater. Look at what happened with Lennar Homes recently. In 2023, a buyer bought a brand-new home for $500,000, putting $17,500 down (borrowing $482,500). Today? Lennar is selling that exact same model brand-new in the exact same neighborhood for $375,000. They slashed prices by over six figures. Those 2023 buyers are completely underwater and trapped unless they can magically pull $100k+ out of their pockets to sell. This is strictly for educational purposes, but please—protect your wealth. Don't just look at active listings. Check the pre-foreclosure data in your comp radius before you sign. 📉💸 #realestate #housingmarket #homebuyer #preforeclosure #marketcrash #realestatetips

Jeff Bezos Shorted CoreWeave. Here’s Why.👇 In the spring of 2005, Jeff Bezos mailed Amazon's shareholders his 2004 shareholder letter. It was a description of CoreWeave’s business model. Yes, I’m serious. Bezos is so freakin’ smart he foresaw a time in the future that CoreWeave would build huge data centers – machines that would change everything about the economy and our daily lives…

Mike Ditka, whose legendary career as a player and Super Bowl-winning coach landed him in the Hall of Fame, has died at the age of 86, his family announced.

I hate to see how people are treating seedy here. He is a good guy, openly struggling with some negative investments. So much spitefulness about a man being honest about his failures. The remaining mob just hides their losses and celebrates their wins. All high-risk investors should show some compassion, we all know one day you are on the right side and next day on the other. This is a long term game and it’s much more fun if we all show some respect towards each other. In the end we are all humans…