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BPC retweeted
All you Petey haters STAY ON THAT SIDE
This is for the people that never gave up on him
Griffin Jax Over 2.5 Hits Allowed vs Yankees | Yankee Stadium | July 6
Jax has cleared this number in 10 straight starts and 100% of his last 10 outings overall. He’s averaging 4.3 hits allowed per game and the Yankees are one of the best contact lineups in baseball with Judge, Soto, and Volpe all hitting above .280. Yankee Stadium plays as one of the most hitter friendly parks in the AL and the Yankees are top 5 in hits per game at home this season.
Jax gave up 5 hits in his last start against Kansas City and has been leaking contact all season with a 41.4% hard hit rate against him. His fastball and sinker get punished and the Yankees lineup is built to make contact and grind at-bats. He needs just 3 hits allowed to cash and this lineup generates traffic every single game.
Over 2.5 hits is his season average by nearly two full hits. Best price is -565
on Fliff but on pp its about-250. This one cashes before the fifth inning.
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496
Berserker -1.5 Deaths vs Viper | BLG vs LYON Map 1 | MSI 2026 July 5
BLG are 1.13 map 1 favourites and when teams play from ahead their carries take way more aggressive trades and die more. Berserker is the engine of LYON’s offense and will be forced into 50/50 fights trying to keep pace with a BLG squad that just beat T1 in 5 games. Viper is injured, passive by nature, and plays to survive not to make plays.
LYON need Berserker to do everything. He will be taking fights that Viper simply won’t take because BLG’s macro is too clean to give LYON clean objectives for free. Viper played through an entire T1 series barely showing up and still stayed alive by playing safe and letting his team carry.
If BLG win Map 1 clean, Berserker dies chasing the game. If it’s close, Berserker dies making plays. Either way Viper sits back and farms. Hard to see a world where this doesn’t cash at 1.72.
CASH THE GOAT
$250 TO A FOLLOWER WHO 💚 AND RTs 🔁 WHEN WE SWEEP!🚨
Coco Gauff Over 22.5 Total Games vs Bencic | Wimbledon R16 | July 5
Both players just came through brutal three-setters to get here. Gauff needed 2.5 hours to put away Claire Liu and Bencic went nearly three hours edging Kalinskaya in a match tiebreak. Two tired players who grind long matches walking into each other at Wimbledon — this has distance written all over it.
Five of their seven career meetings have gone three sets and they’ve never played on grass before so neither has a comfort edge on the surface. Bencic is 3-0 on grass this season converting 58% of break points — she’s not going away easy. Gauff leads the H2H 5-2 but 100% of their meetings have cleared this total.
Avg games in their H2H sits at 24.4 — nearly two full games above the line. Best price is +10 on Fliff but -106 on FanDuel is the move for a safer book. This one goes three sets, lock it in.
#prizepick #underdog #mlb #sportsbetting
189
$250 TO A FOLLOWER WHO 💚 AND RTs 🔁 WHEN WE SWEEP!🚨
SF Giants -120 vs Colorado | Coors Field | July 5
Giants won yesterday and now get Tanner Gordon — 0-2, 6.69 ERA, never won a start this season. Arraez is hitting .330, Jung Hoo Lee at .317, Schmitt with 16 home runs. Colorado pitchers are allowing the highest opponent batting average in baseball and have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Gordon is walking into a firing squad at altitude. Back SF to close out the series. #prizepick #underdog #mlb #sportsbetting
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184
$250 TO A FOLLOWER WHO 💚 AND RTs 🔁 WHEN WE SWEEP!🚨
Coco Gauff Over 22.5 Total Games vs Bencic | Wimbledon R16 | July 5
Both players just came through brutal three-setters to get here. Gauff needed 2.5 hours to put away Claire Liu and Bencic went nearly three hours edging Kalinskaya in a match tiebreak. Two tired players who grind long matches walking into each other at Wimbledon — this has distance written all over it.
Five of their seven career meetings have gone three sets and they’ve never played on grass before so neither has a comfort edge on the surface. Bencic is 3-0 on grass this season converting 58% of break points — she’s not going away easy. Gauff leads the H2H 5-2 but 100% of their meetings have cleared this total.
Avg games in their H2H sits at 24.4 — nearly two full games above the line. Best price is +10 on Fliff but -106 on FanDuel is the move for a safer book. This one goes three sets, lock it in.
#prizepick #underdog #mlb #sportsbetting
$250 TO A FOLLOWER WHO 💚 AND RTs 🔁 WHEN WE SWEEP!🚨
(Taken on prize picks)
Cowboy Ohtani Over 4.5 Ks vs Atlanta | Truist Park | July 5
Nolan McLean has been dealing. 100% hit rate in his last 5 starts on this exact number and 89% on the season. His curveball is generating a 50% whiff rate and he’s averaging 6.2 Ks per game this year. The Braves have faced him twice and both times this cleared with ease, making the H2H a perfect 2 for 2.
Atlanta has been striking out at an elevated rate against right handed pitching and McLean’s sweeper and sinker combo gives them nothing easy to barrel. He needs just 5 Ks to cash and he’s gone over that in 9 of his last 10 starts.
Best line is DraftKings at -387. If you’re on FanDuel it’s -364. This is about as close to a lock as a strikeout prop gets.
#prizepick #underdog #mlb #sportsbetting
174
Phillies -135 vs Kansas City | July 5
PHI just dropped 6 on KC yesterday and now get a gift — Avila on the mound walking 14.5% of hitters he faces. Pasquantino, India, Isbel, and Ragans all out. KC is running a skeleton crew against a Phillies lineup slugging .465 over the last 10 games. Harper, Schwarber, and Marsh are locked in and Trea Turner has 16 hits in his last 10. This is a mismatch dressed up as a ballgame. #prizepick #underdog #mlb #sportsbetting
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262
Paul Skenes over 5.5 strikeouts — PIT @ PHI
The reigning NL Cy Young winner has completely rounded into form in 2026, throwing 16 consecutive shutout innings across his last two starts while punching out 17 batters — that’s 8.5 Ks per outing over that stretch alone. He’s cleared 5.5 in every single one of his last five starts with a season average of 7.5 punchouts per game, making this line a near-automatic cover at his current level.
Skenes carries a 9.86 K/9 rate and a 1.50 BB/9 through his first nine starts, confirming the command and swing-and-miss stuff that made him the consensus best pitcher in baseball last season is fully back. His seven-pitch arsenal headlined by a triple-digit fastball and a devastating splinker creates a matchup problem that no lineup solves in one game — the Phillies offer a competitive test, but Skenes has gone 3/3 against them in H2H situations at this line historically.
The line shopping angle makes this even sharper. Other books are pricing the over anywhere from -341 at DraftKings to -588 on the high end, reflecting the true market probability on this result. Getting access to the same bet at a lower number is where the value is captured — the consensus across four major books screams over, and 5.5 is nearly two full strikeouts below his season average entering tonight.
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459
Max Meyer over 1.5 walks — MIA @ COL
UD HAS THIS AT -155
Meyer has been one of the best starters in baseball this season, posting a 9-0 record and 2.60 ERA, but his command profile consistently puts him at or above the 1.5 walk threshold with a 34-walk total through 17 starts. He averages right around two free passes per outing, making this line a natural outcome in most of his appearances regardless of opponent quality.
Coors Field adds a layer of pressure that tends to work against even disciplined pitchers — hitters are more comfortable extending at-bats in thin air, and Meyer’s sweeper-heavy repertoire invites deep counts that inflate walk totals. The Rockies have one of the more patient lineups against right-handed pitching in the NL, further pushing Meyer toward that second walk.
His last start against the Mets produced three walks over six innings, and prior to that his walk numbers have been consistently at or above the line. Comparable starters with similar command profiles who throw heavy breaking balls on the road at altitude have averaged 2.1 walks per start in equivalent matchups this season.
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326
Marozsan is a clay-built baseline grinder who relies on rallies and court coverage rather than a weapon serve — he’s averaging just 3.75 aces per match in 2026 and has cleared 6.5 aces in only 25% of his matches this season. Getting to 11.5 would require him to nearly triple his season average, a number that is simply not in his serving profile regardless of surface.
Davidovich Fokina is ranked 23rd and enters this match in strong form, having just won his first tour-level title and backed it up with a comfortable first-round win. A competitive opponent who pushes Marozsan into long rallies and contested service games suppresses ace production further, as shorter points on serve are the primary driver of inflated ace totals.
Marozsan carries a 3-8 career record on grass at ATP level, confirming he does not thrive on a surface that typically inflates ace numbers for big servers. The market is essentially pricing this at a coin flip while the data shows this goes under in the overwhelming majority of his outings — comp starters with similar profiles in equivalent matchups rarely approach double-digit ace totals on grass.
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177
Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 hits+runs+RBIs — SD @ CHC
El Niño is as locked in as anyone in baseball right now, slashing .344 in June with hits in 12 of his last 15 games and a .397 average over his last 16 contests. He’s cleared this line in every single one of his last 13 games, averaging 2.8 combined across that stretch — the bar here is barely getting off the ground for a player performing at this level.
The Cubs rank among the more hittable pitching staffs in the NL Central and Tatis has historically hit well in spacious road ballparks that play to contact rather than power — exactly the profile he’s operating in right now with 18 stolen bases, 26 RBI, and 28 runs scored despite only recently finding his home run stroke. He simply needs one hit, one run, or one RBI to cash, a threshold he’s met in 75% of games on the full season.
Other books have this priced between -600 and -840 on the over, which tells you everything about how the market views this result. Getting access to the same bet reflects meaningful line value on a player who has been one of the hottest hitters in the NL over the past month — at 0.5 combined, this is about as low a bar as a prop line gets.
163
Sabalenka over 16.5 total games — Wimbledon R2 vs Kessler
Sabby is the world No. 1 and an overwhelming moneyline favourite at 87%, but 16.5 total games is a number that significantly undersells how this match figures to play. She has gone over this line in 100% of her last 15 matches with an average of 23 games per match — nearly seven games clear of tonight’s number on average.
The line shopping angle alone makes this a standout. Other books have the over priced between -460 and -909, reflecting the true probability of this result. Getting the same bet at a fraction of that juice is where the value lives — the market consensus is screaming over, and the 16.5 number is two full games below where major books set their total in this exact matchup.
Kessler comes in ranked 57th and won 66% of her service games in 2026, holding serve comfortably even against elite opposition. The lone career meeting between these two went 22 games at Indian Wells last year with Sabalenka needing a tiebreak to take the first set — a direct comp that clears 16.5 with ease and supports the 6.5-game average differential the data already shows.
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197
sjuush over 13.5 kills Map 1 — NIP vs 3DMAX, XSE Pro League
sjuush is NIP’s primary anchor and one of the most impactful riflers in the European scene, posting a 0.67 KPR across nearly 1,000 career maps with consistent multi-kill rounds as a core part of his game. The 13.5 line is a low bar for a player who regularly exceeds 20 kills in maps where NIP controls the pace and sjuush gets clean CT setups to work with.
3DMAX arrive in dire form, having dropped seven of their last eight series with back-to-back last-place tournament exits — including an early elimination at the CS Asia Championships. A struggling team with no momentum and shaky coordination gives NIP’s anchor every opportunity to rack up kills on comfortable holds without being tested by sharp counter-strats.
Comp results support the lean — sjuush dropped 24 kills against Sharks at Stake Ranked just days ago while posting a 1.68 rating, and NIP reached the upper final of that event with him leading the way. Against a 3DMAX side this far out of form, clearing 13.5 on Map 1 is a well-within-range result.
235
Hanshin Tigers @ Tokyo Yakult NRFI -205 | Jingu Stadium | May 13
Haruto Takahashi takes the mound with a 0.21 ERA on the season and has yet to allow a single run against Yakult in any head-to-head outing this year.  Yamano counters for Tokyo with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.59 ERA specifically against Hanshin — two of the cleaner starting pitcher profiles on the entire NPB slate today. First innings are controlled, efficient, and low-drama with both arms.
Yakult is batting just .213 against Hanshin this season with 66 strikeouts across the series  — one of the weakest contact profiles in this matchup all year. Hanshin leads the season series 5-2 and has outscored Yakult 40-18 , meaning Tokyo’s offense is consistently getting dominated in this rivalry. A lineup that can’t generate runs across a full game is not getting on the board in the first inning against Takahashi.
The book has this total at 6 — the lowest on the NPB slate today. Market and matchup aligned. Two elite arms, a punchless home offense, and a rivalry where one team is completely in control. Clean NRFI spot.
🤖 Made with AI
