An initiative to monitor democratic practices in the U.S. and call attention to threats to American democracy.
Joined February 2017
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New @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
Key findings:
-Experts view Trump immunity claim as profound threat to democracy, identify second term scenarios threatening democracy as likely.
-Public polarized on Trump legal claims and cases
Detailed findings in 🧵 (1/9)
Bright Line Watch retweeted
New @BrightLineWatch report on “Courts, campaigns, and confidence in American democracy” with @BrendanNyhan , @GretchenHlmk, Sue Stokes, and @obboutin - brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… 1/n
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
If Trump wins, experts expect him to fire Jack Smith, pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists, suspend ongoing prosecutions, pardon himself, and open criminal investigations into opponents. Rs overwhelming approve of these actions (6/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
Rs are confident that their own votes (79%) and votes in their state (77%) will be counted as intended in 2024. However, just 54% of Rs are confident in the national vote count in 2024. Democrats are much more confident. (8/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
Ratings of the performance of U.S. democracy overall are up slightly since last summer, but experts and the public both expect democratic decline in the future, especially if Donald Trump is re-elected. (9/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
A majority of the public believes Biden would have been prosecuted for his handling of classified documents if he’d been someone else, including 43% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans, but just one-fifth of experts agree (5/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
Fewer than half of Americans think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated (Rs ~80%, Ds ~25%). Experts generally don't agree – but more (40%) think the NY hush money case is. (4/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
54% of the public trusts the Supreme Court to make impartial decisions in Trump-related cases. Confidence higher among Republicans (69%) than among Democrats (44%). (3/9)
New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c…
Democrats and Republicans are polarized over disqualification from ballot and over Trump claim to criminal immunity. Overall support for immunity is lower. Experts regard immunity as a serious threat to democracy. (2/9)
Bright Line Watch retweeted
NEW: @BrightLineWatch report featuring detailed public/expert survey data on Trump cases brightlinewatch.org/uncharte…
-Few Rs think Trump broke law (unlike experts) but ↑ since docs charges
-Rs split on punishment for specific docs charges
-Experts still rate as benefit to democracy
ALT Percentage of respondents who say Trump/Biden committed a crime
ALT Support for punishment for various allegations
ALT Reasons for believing Trump did not commit a crime
ALT Support for punishment for documents-related allegations
Features our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/american…
Doubts over integrity of American politics remain in run-up to midterm contests theglobeandmail.com/world/us…
New report! xitter.cf/BrendanNyhan/status/15…
NEW: @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/american…
-R acceptance of Biden win/trust in natl. vote ↑ vs '21, but vote confidence still ↓ vs '20
-Pervasive candidate denialism
-Experts: Trump run profound democratic threat, prosecution major benefit
🧵 below
Bright Line Watch retweeted
NEW: @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/american…
-R acceptance of Biden win/trust in natl. vote ↑ vs '21, but vote confidence still ↓ vs '20
-Pervasive candidate denialism
-Experts: Trump run profound democratic threat, prosecution major benefit
🧵 below
Bright Line Watch retweeted
Read the thread and the full report for this essential work from THE scholars studying the health and viability of US government. Mostly discouraging news, with a few bright elements of hope. Amazing work @BrightLineWatch! – at Mantua, VA
New @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy. brightlinewatch.org/tempered… - Partisan divisions over the legitimacy of the 2020 election remain profound. Confidence in the 2022 elections is already more polarized than confidence in the 2020 election was in October of that year.
Our new @BrightLineWatch report on the state of US democracy, including new findings on public confidence in the 2022 elections, perceptions of the opposition's commitment to democratic norms, and expert assessments of reforms to improve our democracy brightlinewatch.org/tempered…
🧵
More on threats to US democracy @newyorker, with commentary from @BrightLineWatch’s @BrendanNyhan here newyorker.com/news/daily-com…
