macro larp analyst crypto round-trip expert
Joined December 2015
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Once again, if both the demand and the supply for something is very inelastic in the short term and you suddenly cut ~15% of supplies, the price will go to insane levels in relatively short order.
This will continue until either Hormuz is reopened no matter how exactly or it reaches such a level that it triggers a recession that will "solve" the problem by destroying enough demand.
There is nothing mysterious or unexpected about it and the only reason anyone is surprised by this is because people have memed themselves into believing that basic economics was a panican conspiracy.
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This isn’t the tariff war.
You can threaten all you want and back off as many times as you want, but if the tankers aren’t moving in the Strait of Hormuz, it’s not moving.
Physical reality with verifiable checks make it impossible to “TACO”.
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*KILLS ENTIRE LEADERSHIP*
*SAYS THERE IS NOBODY TO NEGOTIATE WITH*
*SAYS DEAL TALKS ARE GOING WELL*
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What makes this worse is Trump can’t walk away, he’s stuck, and the “imminent TACO/trade deal” isn’t in the cards
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Poor countries, with larger populace should start failing first.
Then it spreads.
By early April, late April at max , I think we should begin to see industry shut down, and petrol rationing begin in India, Pakistan, Korea etc .
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Comically short sighted first-order thinking.
Hormuz isn’t just oil/LNG: it’s helium, fertiliser inputs, petrochem feedstocks, industrial gases. You don’t get ‘no fuel’, you get cascading industrial failure of which the US is the largest global node.
And if the US stops underwriting sea lanes, you’re eroding the very system (petrodollar) that US power sits on.
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In 2007/08 the sequence was: oil spike (crude hit $147 in July 2008) → consumer squeeze → credit stress surfaced (subprime) → contagion into the broader financial system → everything broke
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the biggest difference between the OG zyzz and the modern looksmaxxer is what moved them. one looked in the mirror and decided to be better, the other looked at other men and decided to copy
zyzz was a Faustian man building himself through discipline, for his own sake. the locus of evaluation is internal, masculine
the looksmaxxer does the opposite. starts by staring at other men, measuring canthal tilts, obsessing over bone structure, then reaches for shortcuts, surgery, fillers, bone smashing, makeup, just to look better. the locus of evaluation is entirely external. he needs an audience to be validated
one comes from pursuit of value, one from jealousy. one is self-referential, one is comparison-based (very feminine, not the makeup per se, but the fact that your worth is always measured relative to someone else’s face)
one is a philosophy, one is a mockery of one.
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. @MeteoraAG and @JupiterExchange mentioned yesterday on @shu_bit_ 's livestream with @fisher8cap 's @0xlaiyuen
Investor relations are definitely something that crypto sorely needs, and we're glad our efforts here are being noticed. Now to scale and expand reach further.
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Diving into one of the strangest crypto sell-offs ever.
Wall Street is seeing all of the same bullish signs that I'm seeing -- equity, credit and gold/silver markets are launching to ATHs every month because the Fed is cutting rates, QT is ending, consumer spending is strong, record earnings, AI demand still incredibly strong, etc.
Meanwhile, all of the "supposed reasons" for crypto selling off are easily debunked, or have reversed -- MSTR isn't selling, Tether isn't insolvent, DATs aren't selling, NVDA isn't blowing up, the Fed isn't turning hawkish, the tariff wars aren't restarting, etc.
I still have no idea why crypto is down It may be as simple as "all of the positive progress with the tech, with Washington policy, and with Wall Street doesn't change the fact that there are no buyers within the crypto walls today. Crypto-native investors are exhausted, and new money isn't coming in. While investors are forward looking, they don't change their workflows -- so while it's great that Vanguard, State Street, BNY, JPM, MS, GS, etc are all COMING, they aren't here today. And until it's easy to buy via their existing mandates and systems, they just won't do it"
ar.ca/blog/the-selling-nobod…
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super bullish meteora too
meteora is a good business and most importantly, its token is the only asset to own in its ecosystem. there is no labs entity or equity to acquire, its MET as the vehicle.
by keeping things simple, this is what I mean. no ambiguity, no obfuscation, this is the token and we’re going to build our business.
This US trip has even extremely eye opening.
We’re going to power much more liquidity, capital formation, on-chain.
Super bullish @MeteoraAG’s partners
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Totally agree with Jeff here. If HYPE was not “crypto”, it would be trading with multiples in line with HOOD, COIN, etc.
Imagine if it stopped giving a fuck about BTC price action…
Institutional investors will never buy crypto in meaningful size until we stop calling it all "crypto".
If everyone just writes/talks about macro, and calls everything "alts", then investors are right to ignore this space. Why spend time on an investable universe that is marketed as a single asset?
If we called every ETF that wasn't $SPY an "altstock", then no one would buy ETFs or stocks either. If we called US Treasuries "bonds" and every other debt instrument an "altbond", then no one would buy fixed income either.
But we don't -- because that would be stupid. And the leaders in debt and equity markets know this.
The platforms responsible for selling stocks (exchanges, brokerages, research firms) recognize that ETFs are just a wrapper, and lots of completely different assets can be put inside the wrapper. As such, these brokerages, exchanges and research firms don't spit out macro commentary generically about ETFs, because that would be stupid. Instead, they teach about sectors and assets INSIDE of the wrapper, not the wrapper itself.
Similarly, brokerages, investment banks and research firms separate gov't bonds from corporate bonds, and IG bonds from HY bonds, and convertible bonds from straight bonds. None of these firms spit out macro commentary about all of fixed income as one vehicle. Because that too would be stupid. Who the issuer of the debt is matters, and the unique features of that debt matter (coupons, maturities, covenants, call features, convertibility features, etc).
The token investing world is no different.
- There are different issuers of tokens (individuals, companies, decentralized protocols, etc)
- There are different features (inflation vs amortization, staked vs unstaked, asset-backed vs equity-like, etc)
- There are different sectors (L1s, DeFi, DePIN, stablecoins, memecoins, etc)
There is nothing similar about most crypto assets besides the wrapper. We should never discuss BTC, USDT, XRP, ETH, TAO, HYPE, BNB, DOGE, HNT and other assets that have LITERALLY NOTHING TO DO WITH EACH OTHER besides the wrapper ("crypto") in the same conversation.
So until the leaders of the crypto industry (Exchanges, brokerages, data providers and large asset managers) start intelligently differentiating the different types of issuers of tokens, and the different features of the token, from the wrapper itself, this industry will remain dead to real investors.