Chris Bauer retweeted
Imagine the Supreme Court stopping the count after polls close and ordering polls reopen for two hours ONLY in Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Atlanta, and you sort of get the scope of what's currently happening in Brazil.
Chris Bauer retweeted
The Cardinals might be one of the worst ran organizations but at least they nailed the Larry Fitzgerald number retirement ceremony
Chris Bauer retweeted
Lula de Silva has been miraculously re-elected as the President of Brazil, beating almost every single polls. He is 80 year old
Chris Bauer retweeted
"When the left loses an election, it tries to destroy the country; when it wins, it succeeds."
— Friedrich Hayek
Chris Bauer retweeted
Drove from West Virginia to Ohio today everything is so colorful, might be peak right now. 🤩
Chris Bauer retweeted
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
Chris Bauer retweeted
Elon Musk just told the entire world that the AI bubble has popped... buckle up.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Elon Musk referred specifically to debt markets shutting off for neoclouds (specialized AI cloud providers without other revenue) and their likely consolidation, not the broader AI sector or bubble popping. Hyperscalers continue guiding hundreds of billions in AI capex.
x.com/elonmusk/statu…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
cryptobriefing.com/musk-predicts-…
fourweekmba.com/ai-meta-google…
Chris Bauer retweeted
We are all in the departure lounge. Some of us have earlier flights than others.















































