Comprehensive Wealth

This chart is wild. State and local governments have been fiscally responsible, the US federal government on the other hand… #debt

The national and 20-largest city home price-to-rent ratios are breaking or nearly breaking the 2006 records depending on measure used, suggesting that renting a home is mathematically preferable to purchasing in most U.S. locales. h/t @calculatedrisk #realestate

Headline risk is a real thing, but it doesn’t usually matter to #investment markets for very long. Here are some of the major news events from 1/1/2008 – 12/31/2021. Longer term market reaction = *Yawn*

The energy usage of just Bitcoin (let alone the entire crypto market) is astounding. This seems to me to be a significant weakness of current blockchain tech.

State tax revenues are higher, significantly in some cases, than before the pandemic. Don't expect new proposals for more #taxes to slow though...

If we include SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) activity, 2021 has seen more IPO (initial public offering) activity than any time in the last almost 30 years. h/t @Peter_Atwater

Price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) have a tendency to be higher at #inflation levels below 4% and lower above that, which is one of the reasons potentially high future inflation is a bit concerning for the #StockMarket

Goldman Sach's bear market indicator is showing the highest probability since pre-COVID times. #StockMarket

U.S. corporations have authorized a record, over trillion dollar, level of stock buybacks.

Passive investing is a fine method in some cases, but it is not impervious to failure (like all investing strategies). If an investor required a 6% real return, the S&P 500 Index has still not climbed out of the hole created by the tech bubble of 1999. That isn't the only example

#GasPrices have gotten a bit expensive lately...

One specific area where #inflation is extreme: #furniture . YoY price increases are at levels not seen even in the CPI’s 70-year history… Yikes. h/t @johnauthers

The rate of home value appreciation has never been higher. Note previously peaks were followed by periods of low or negative growth in values. People in states with real estate taxes are about to receive hefty jumps in their annual payments in the near future. #realestatemarket

There has been a quiet correction in the #StockMarket this year. You wouldn't know it just by looking at the major indices, that fell around 5% at their worst point, but the vast majority of components have seen a drawdown of 10% or more from their 2021 highs. h/t @LizAnnSonders

Investing defensively doesn’t mean you will lose money if the market keeps rising. You may just have to put up with doing embarrassingly worse than your friends for a time. Having patience and discipline can give you the last laugh though. h/t bit.ly/2Zwod9C

As of October 15th, U.S. Market/GDP (a measure of valuation) was well over 3-standard deviations from the mean (1979-present). Just to get back to 2-SD would require a #StockMarket drop of almost 23% and markets would still arguably be extremely expensive by this measure.

The 30-year mortgage rate bottomed at 2.65% on January 7th. How high it will need to rise before it negatively impacts homebuying, mortgage issuance, appraisal, etc?

Fiscal drag is coming as the economic support packages wane and the economic thrust of reopening weakens. h/t @GoldmanSachs

A quick thread on #inflation. Price pressures have picked up over the last year in commodities, but we still aren't seeing anything like the 70s. It is still the biggest spike basically since then though. h/t @johnauthers

There are almost 11 million job openings in the U.S. with great debate on the reasons why there also remain millions of unemployed persons.