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Le Cactus

@CactusContraria

It stings. Contrarian & asymmetric bets, built in public. Real portfolio, every win and loss shown. Ex-HF and IB Banker Not investment advice.

 Europe
substack.com/@lecactuscontrarian
Joined October 2026
  • Tweets21
  • Following22
  • Followers4
11Media
Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)Photo by Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
Why None of My Bots Is Allowed to Press ‘Buy’

Why None of My Bots Is Allowed to Press ‘Buy’

Article · @CactusContraria
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How I Built a Team of AI Bots That Does My Market Watch Before My Coffee

How I Built a Team of AI Bots That Does My Market Watch Before My Coffee

Article · @CactusContraria
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Waiting for payrolls so I can replace my entire macro worldview with a headline. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Trading oil: peace hopes in one tab, tanker alerts in the other. Very relaxing. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Peace Is Priced In. Shipping Has Not Confirmed.

Peace Is Priced In. Shipping Has Not Confirmed.

Article · @CactusContraria
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Different tickers. Same panic button. My diversification has excellent branding. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Wall Street wants an AI revolution. I want my cable company to explain itself. CHTR, GPAT and the week's portfolio check. New Cactus letter: privatepi.substack.com/wall-…
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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The market isn't betting on what Democrats will pass. It's betting on what Trump can no longer pass. 🌵 Gridlock is a feature, not a bug. Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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privatepi.substack.com/p/the…
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Democrats sweep Congress. By 6am every trading floor had printed the same sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines. When everyone has the same sheet, I turn it over. 🌵 privatepi.substack.com/p/the… Not investment advice.
Distracted Boyfriend meme: Le Cactus turns away from 'The sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines' to look at 'Long defense (ITA)'. Caption: Wall Street the morning after the blue wave: everyone printed the same sheet.

ALT Distracted Boyfriend meme: Le Cactus turns away from 'The sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines' to look at 'Long defense (ITA)'. Caption: Wall Street the morning after the blue wave: everyone printed the same sheet.

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Bonds won the night: US 10y at 4.92%. Morgan Stanley on its own 16%/23% midterm stat: "We don't think that blueprint holds up this time around." I listen. Theses (not positions): long ITA, ICLN/XLV shorts under review. Not investment advice.
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Is Claude worth a trillion? The market is buying the story. We counted, and stopped at $612B: 36.6% below the Series H, ~65% below the IPO talk in the press. An estimate, not a price target. 🧵 Not investment advice.
Woman yelling at cat meme: IT'S A TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY vs my spreadsheet: $612B

ALT Woman yelling at cat meme: IT'S A TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY vs my spreadsheet: $612B

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more replies
CHTR: entry $104.82, close 03/11 $113.79 (GOOGLEFINANCE/Yahoo), earnings 06/11 at 13h Paris. Partial profit-taking level: to be confirmed. New merger arb lines: CPAC, PTC, PERI. Not investment advice.
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Full letter, FR + EN, 18 charts and tables: privatepi.substack.com/p/cla… Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
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Everyone's watching the BTC chart. Watch the chain instead. $2B+ left Binance hot wallets for a brand-new address. Funded through Tornado Cash. Binance is "investigating". CZ: "it does look like a hack." Not confirmed yet. Confirmed lesson: self-custody isn't paranoia. 🌵
Meme about the suspected Binance hot wallet hack

ALT Meme about the suspected Binance hot wallet hack

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Le Cactus #2 is out: Waiting for Warsh. Fed debrief and day one of my portfolio: AAL, CHTR, BABA, GPAT, JACS, CEPV. I hold these positions. Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not. privatepi.substack.com/p/en-…
Waiting Skeleton meme: Me waiting for Fed forward guidance / Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance. Hold at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 vote

ALT Waiting Skeleton meme: Me waiting for Fed forward guidance / Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance. Hold at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 vote

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Fed at 2pm ET, Warsh at 2:30. Polymarket: 95.4% hold, 76.5% for a 25bp December hike (OpenMarket). The BoC just hiked to 2.5%. The only suspense: the tone. Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not. substack.com/@lecactuscontra…
Drake meme. Drake rejects: Betting on the Fed decision (95.4% hold, Polymarket). Drake approves: Betting on Warsh's tone at 2:30pm ET.

ALT Drake meme. Drake rejects: Betting on the Fed decision (95.4% hold, Polymarket). Drake approves: Betting on Warsh's tone at 2:30pm ET.

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Le Cactus letter #1 is out: "Peace for 15 Dollars". Brent at $113.88 and everyone's sure oil stays expensive. When the crowd picks one scenario, the other goes on sale. 6 bets on the Unloved Club, 1 hangover insurance. Not investment advice. privatepi.substack.com/p/pea…
This is Fine meme: the dog labelled The consensus sits in flames labelled Brent $113.88 and European gas €100. Caption: Expensive oil is forever. This is fine.

ALT This is Fine meme: the dog labelled The consensus sits in flames labelled Brent $113.88 and European gas €100. Caption: Expensive oil is forever. This is fine.

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