On https://xitter.cf/t.co/SmHH56qgbx WX/Geo/Fire/Disaster/History Buff/CERT/Rockhound.
Atascadero, CA
Joined July 2010
- Tweets176K
- Following1.2K
- Followers5.6K
- Likes16.4K
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
A billionaire sat in a room for 42 minutes and listed every psychological trick that makes people lose money. for free. the finance industry has spent thirty years pretending this recording does not exist.
he didn't sell a course. he didn't write a newsletter. he sat in a chair at 96 years old and explained why brilliant people do the dumbest things with their money. then he explained why they will keep doing it.
MBA programs charge $200,000 to teach behavioral finance. he covered 25 biases in one sitting. some of them are still not in any curriculum. he gave the entire framework away on camera.
the part nobody talks about: he called crypto antisocial. he said index funds will crush most managers. he said private equity is full of wretched excess. he said all of this in a room full of people who manage money for a living. nobody argued.
a hedge fund analyst at a top firm told me this is the first thing they send to anyone who joins the desk. not a book. not a model. a 42-minute video of a 96-year-old man explaining why you will be wrong and how to recognize it before it costs you everything.
40 million people have heard his name. almost none of them have watched him explain the 25 ways their own brain is working against them.
the lecture is free. he died the following year. it is in the video.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
You're not going to like this. No nuclear bombs. The entire country of Japan is destroyed and large swaths of Japan would likely be a chemical wasteland to this day similar to Red Zones of France from WW1.
Option 1 was the starvation campaign which many people say this is what we should have done but what they it completely ignore in the starvation campaign plan is like 4 to 6 million Japanese estimated to die in this campaign which also calls for the continued heavy fire bombing campaigns and up to 30 nuclear bombs planned to be dropped between 1946 and 1947. Though in this scenario there would be no nuclear bombs and instead would be fire bombing.
Option 2 launch the ground invasion and the preparatory stage of the ground invasion would have seen the largest deployment of chemical weapons ever 50 Japanese cities would have been targeted estimated casualties from this is 5 million dead 5 million injured and that's before a single American soldier hits Japanese soil which would then culminate with additional up to 4 million Japanese military casualties and an additional couple million Japanese civilian casualties. In this scenario the nuclear component is removed which would delete the 7 nuclear bombs that were planned to be dropped on Kyushu by the end of 1945 and 15 in 1946 but the chemical weapons campaign continues.
The chemical attacks called for dropping 56,583 tons of poison-gas bombs in the first 15 days as part of the "initial gas blitz" with additional 23,935 tons of gas bombs every month that the war dragged on or until all targets had been hit.
When landings began in November 1945 tactical fighters and attack planes were to drop another 8,971 tons in the first 15 days, followed by 4,984 tons of bombs every 30 days on Japanese troops in Kyushu. Other planes would swoop low, using spray tanks to spread thousands of tons of liquid gas over Japanese defenders. During the landings, U.S. troops would bring ashore 67 Army battalions of 105-mm and 155-mm howitzers and 4.2-inch mortars that were to fire about 1,400 tons of gas shells every 30 days.
US forces would deploy
Phosgene,
Hydrogen Cyanide,
Cyanogen Chloride,
Mustard/ Liquid Mustard
The planned attack on Tokyo was to start at 8 am to ensure that greatest number of people would be concentrated in the city. B-29 and B-24 bombers would drop either 21,180 gas bombs weighing 500 pounds or 5,420 bombs weighing 1,000 pounds, depending upon their availability all bombs would be filled with Phosgene.
In addition
By August 1945 the United States had stockpiled almost 51 million chemical artillery shells, more than 1,000,000 chemical bombs, and more than 100,000 aircraft spray tanks were available. That's not including the chemical weapons. The United Kingdom have been stockpiling as well for the invasion with 41,000 tons of mustard gas and 14,000 tons of phosgene and various tear gases stockpiled in Australia and India in preparation for the invasion of Japan.
I’m Japanese.
Question for Americans 🇺🇸
If nuclear weapons had NEVER existed during WWII…
Would Japan have stood a chance against America? 🇯🇵⚔️🇺🇸
⚔️ It would’ve been a close fight.
🇺🇸 America would’ve still dominated.
⏳ Japan could’ve held out much longer.
🤔 The outcome might’ve been different.
Was America’s military superiority already overwhelming without the atomic bombs?
I want your honest opinion.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
Tom Brady winning 7 rings is the worst thing to ever happen. It makes for no honest debates b/c the convo always, ALWAYS, goes back to RINGZZZ. We’re just supposed to pretend the Tuck Rule, Drew Bennett drop, John Kasay kick out of bounds, Marlon McCree fumble, SpyGate, throwing 3 INT in the 07 AFCCG and winning, Lee Evans drop, Cundiff whiff, Butler INT, Edelman catch, Myles Jack wasn’t down, Dee Ford offsides, throwing 3 INT in a half in the 2020 NFCCG & getting bailed out by his defense all never happened. Nope, it was ALL Brady. That’s why his playoff efficiency is so much worse than several other HOF QB’s. Meanwhile, in the real world, he was consistently outplayed by Peyton, Brees, Rodgers & Mahomes throughout his career.
Mahomes will never catch Brady in rings, not because he’s a worse player, but because no other human being will ever have the sheer amount of devil magic Brady had to get there. I guess it really is better to be lucky than good.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
BREAKING 🚨🚨
#NewportBeach / #California
Major flooding issues in Newport Beach this afternoon as tides threaten homes in the bay.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
I have met several famous people who were quite humble. Stan Lee was absolutely terrific and I had the opportunity to have a brief lunch with him many years ago when he was not widely famous, as he is now. Linda Hamilton was kind and gracious. Jenette Goldstein was awesome and fun and friendly.
In fact, I think most who I have met are. I think that,maybe, once you are secure in your fame you begin to open up and express gratitude for it. At least that is my theory.
Nonetheless, one who in particular comes to mind is Sigourney Weaver.
Everyone knows who Sigourney Weaver is. She is a legend and deservedly so. Her characterization of Ellen Ripley changed cinema and, particularly, the role of female protagonists. After Ripley, women could be credible action heroes in their own right.
Anyway, a few years back Aliens celebrated the 30th Anniversary of its release. As part of that celebration the local Comic Expo here in Calgary managed to assemble the entire main cast of the film, all together in one place at one time for the first time since the film’s premiere 30 years before! That was quite the coup.
Of course, the highlight of the event and the biggest star there was Sigourney Weaver. She arrived on Saturday afternoon and had the huge, sold out, Aliens panel that night. She was warm and gracious and rather self-effacing on stage and was utterly engaged in what the audience said to her. She seemed honestly interested to hear whatever people chose to share with her and I don’t think you can really fake that. Although George Burns once famously quipped, “Acting is all about honesty. If you can fake that you got it made.”
Now, the next day, Sunday is where she truly shone and set herself apart from maybe most celebrities. Having only come in on Saturday for the panel, Sigourney was contracted to take pics and sign autographs on Sunday. Hundreds and hundreds of people (or more) ended up lining up to meet her and she was booked for another panel later in the day. With that kind of time pressure I have seen many (most really) celebrities simply do what they can then abandon the line when they have to head to their next engagement. That is the nature of the beast at Cons. It happens.
But then Sigourney made her legend by slaying such beasts and did so here, too. She told her management that she wasn’t going anywhere until absolutely every person who would care to meet her, shake her hand and take a picture had had their time, no matter how long that took. She told her manager that she was there for the fans, not the other way around.
So, one by one, graciously, Sigourney met with and interacted with each of what was probably thousands of us lined up to meet her, say hi, and shake her hand. Even at a few seconds to maybe half a minute each this was a monumental undertaking. She was focussed but unrushed, taking time especially with her handicapped fans to have a moment with them.
The end result was she ended up being something like 90 minutes or more late for her panel that afternoon. Usually this would have been just cause for animosity or outright anger but given what she had been doing and the fact that the crowd waiting were informed of what she was doing when she walked in the room erupted with pure love and respect, even adulation, for the depth of character she displayed. Sigourney was obviously touched and given who she is, stayed late at that panel for exactly the same reason.
So, yeah, Sigourney Weaver is a legend and deservedly so. The utter class and sheer character she demonstrated should serve as an example to the rest of us who may feel that we are too busy or too important or too entitled to give a shit. She showed that you are never too busy or too famous to care.
I love Sigourney Weaver!
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
The opening paragraph to AJP Taylor's "The Course of German History" remains my absolute favourite start to a history book. Nobody's ever hit this hard right off the bat before
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
re: airbnb discourse
in college I worked as a server at an upscale steakhouse. we had a few different steak sauces that were made from scratch daily. they were expensive to make, and less than half of the customers that ordered steak wanted sauce, so the restaurant charged $3 for it
we got complaints constantly. just at my own tables, half a dozen times a week I'd get complaints about being "nickel and dimed" for $3 of sauce on a $70 steak. a few times a month someone would mention it in an angry online review, or ask to speak to a manager and demand that it be removed from the bill because "who the hell charges for condiments?"
after several years of this, finally management had enough. they raised the price of every steak by $3, and now complimentary sauce was included with each steak on request. want to hazard a guess about how many customers complained about the $3 price increase on steak? essentially zero.
it was great, from the restaurants perspective! no more complaints, and instead of making $3 on 40% of steak orderers, they made $3 on all of them. and the customers were much happier, despite this deal being absolutely, unequivocally worse for them.
consumers are not rational agents from microeconomics textbooks. very often the *feeling* of what they're being charged for matters way more than the absolute value of what they're being charged. I think that's more or less what happening with airbnb. people don't want to be charged a cleaning fee and then also told they have to clean, even if in the counterfactual world the additional cleaning fee is more than they'd be willing to pay someone to do the required cleaning. a $100 cleaning fee *feels* better than a $50 cleaning fee + "load the dishwasher and take the trash out to the dumpster", even though most people would not pay $50 to not have to do that.
I think a lot of you are misunderstanding the frustration. what's annoying is paying a cleaning fee and then being asked to clean. it feels like double dipping. it may be illogical, but you'd get less complaints about "$100 fee but you don't have to do anything" versus "$50 fee + load the dishwasher"
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
WEATHER DISCUSSION: WEST COAST vs. NORTHEAST | HALLOWEEN STORM UPDATE 🎃🌧️
Good morning Followers! The forecast is evolving, and there's a pretty interesting setup developing across the West Coast heading into Halloween. Let's break it down. No hype, just the pattern and what I'm watching.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, #pnw
Washington and Oregon remain the more active areas early this week.
A cold front pushes through WA Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing additional lowland rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures. Snow levels in the Cascades could fall to 2,500–3,500 feet, with accumulating snow possible at the passes.
Oregon also has additional precipitation chances before the pattern trends drier later in the week.
The bigger question is how the Pacific trough evolves and whether subsequent shortwaves dig far enough south to bring more substantial precipitation into California.
NORCAL & THE SIERRA
The rain signal has weakened across the Bay Area, particularly north of the Golden Gate. Rain chances remain in the forecast late Friday into the weekend, but confidence in meaningful totals is lower than it was a few days ago.
The Central Coast has a somewhat better signal, although the focus of the moisture currently favors Southern California.
For the Sierra, I'm watching the evolution of the trough, available cold air and snow levels. Don't assume a major snowstorm just because a model paints precipitation over the mountains.
#SOCAL: HALLOWEEN WEEKEND IS THE MAIN EVENT 🎃
This is where the forecast is getting more interesting.
The latest trends continues to show a very high probability of measurable rain across Southern California this weekend.
Here's the timeline I'm watching:
Friday, Oct. 30: Rain could begin moving into the region, depending on the system's track and arrival time. I am thinking more Saturday afternoon south of Pt. Conception currently.
Saturday, Oct. 31 — HALLOWEEN: Rain could affect outdoor activities, including trick-or-treating. The exact onset and timing of the heaviest precipitation remain uncertain. I am thinking later in the afternoon, see the Euro AI Ens image below, when Rain is forecasted to come into #socal
Sunday, Nov. 1, into Monday, Nov. 2: Additional rain remains possible as the system evolves and moves through the region.
Rainfall estimates: My thinking is around 1 inch across much of the area south of Point Conception thru Monday, with higher totals possible in foothills and coastal mountain slopes. There's also a 20–30% chance that totals could be roughly double those amounts, per the model solutions
Those are preliminary estimates, not a locked-in forecast.
The models have been shifting back and forth, and ensemble rainfall projections have backed off somewhat. The track of the upper-level low will be critical in determining where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Again, think back to last week, with that system that effected #socal, as the upper level low turned into a cut off low, and spun around for a few days. That might happen again.
IMO, this is a legitimate storm signal worth watching. But there's still a big difference between high confidence that it will rain and high confidence in exactly how much rain any particular location will receive.
SANTA ANA WINDS & TEMPERATURES
The immediate forecast favors relatively benign weather early in the week, followed by cooler conditions as the Pacific troughing pattern develops.
The earlier offshore flow is weakening, and the next system's approach should bring a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions. It was 80+ degrees in Santa Monica this weekend, warm to hot days, offshore winds, and mild nights. Again, October has been a very hot month folks, no matter how shammed I got for predicting it was going to be hot, and windy.
I'm not expecting the current Santa Ana setup to be the main story heading into Halloween. The bigger concern is the potential for rain and how the system's track evolves.
ONE MORE THING: COASTAL FLOODING
Southern California is also dealing with exceptionally high astronomical tides through Thursday.
Minor coastal flooding is possible, particularly around vulnerable beaches, harbors, low-lying coastal roads and parking areas. Even without a major swell, these tides can cause problems in locations already affected by erosion.
Keep that separate from the Halloween storm forecast. They're different hazards with different timing.
THE NORTHEAST
Meanwhile, the Northeast is looking at a much quieter pattern.
High pressure and upper-level ridging should keep much of New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic predominantly dry through the week.
After a weak cold front, temperatures rebound, with highs potentially reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s later in the week, locally warmer in parts of New Jersey.
Very different setup from the West Coast.
🧠 THE BIGGER PICTURE: #ELNINO & THE POLAR VORTEX
I'm still watching how the Pacific jet evolves as we move deeper into fall.
El Niño can influence tropical convection and generate large-scale atmospheric wave responses that affect the Pacific jet and downstream Rossby wave pattern.
But the atmospheric response isn't automatic, and one storm doesn't confirm a seasonal pattern.
I'm also monitoring the polar vortex and potential stratosphere-troposphere coupling later in the season. Changes in the vortex can sometimes influence the larger-scale circulation, but the resulting pattern—not the vortex alone—is what matters for California.
My thoughts: The Pacific Northwest gets another shot at rain and mountain snow midweek. Northern California's rain signal has weakened. Southern California has a much stronger signal for a potentially wet Halloween weekend, while the Northeast remains predominantly dry.
The next few days should help resolve the storm track and rainfall distribution. Currently, based on the Euro AI image below, I am thinking midday Saturday, south of Pt. Conception the #rain will start. The USC/Ohio State game will be wet, IMO.
PSA - Thank you for the support regarding my thoughts and straight shooting without hype and sensationalist posts that X has become. Some people tho ruin it, by shaming me, and trolling me continually. Personally, I don't have the time nor the patience for this. You will get blocked. If you think my forecasts are trash, and I am a fraud, block me, or I will block you. Some guy, went nuts on me saying that October was was cool and wet month for #socal, and DTLA got 5" of rain already this month. For the record, here is the link for rain totals in DTLA, .59" for the whole month of October.....SMH - laalmanac.com/weather/we13a.…
Folks, that is what I am dealing with on a daily basis, delusional people. I will continue to give you my thoughts and will not be influenced one way or another from the social media dweebs that are out there. You know who they are. Good news is, I am going to release my winter outlook on Halloween, so if you want to see it, follow me.
More later.....
#CAwx #PNWwx #SoCalWeather #NortheastWeather #ElNino #wxtwitter
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
BREAKING 🚨🚨
#HuntingtonBeach / #California
Large Portions of Sunset Beach on PCH are currently experiencing major flooding issues due to the King tides this morning. Excpect traffic delays and road closures
🎥: @ChefGruel
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
So that we may never forget…
We remember an honor
#EsperanzaFIre – Twenty-Year Anniversary
Twenty years ago, a San Bernardino National Forest (BDF) strike team of engines was assisting CAL FIRE Riverside with an arson caused brush fire burning southwest from Cabazon in Riverside County.
The BDF strike team was assigned to an area of the fire in the Twin Pines community and upon arriving moved into a life-safety mission helping area residents evacuate from their homes ahead of the fast-moving fire.
At 7:15am, BDF Engine 57 was overrun by fire, four firefighters perished that day and the fifth firefighter passed October 31st.
The Angeles National Forest joins firefighters across the globe honoring the sacrifice and price the five firefighters of Engine 57 paid twenty years ago today.
We will always remember and never forget.
San Bernardino National Forest’s Captain Mark Loutzenhiser, Engineer Jess McLean, Firefighter Jason McKay, Firefighter Pablo Cerda, and Firefighter Daniel Hoover-Najera.
@SanBernardinoNF @wffoundation
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
Oh man. So saddened to here of the passing of Star Trek star...Walter Koenig.🙏😔
To boldly go....thank you for everything.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
The preliminary observations at the San Pedro tide gauge reported 8.02 feet this morning, which is an all-time record (records going back to November 1923). The previous record was 7.93 feet set on 01/10/2005. Slightly higher tides are possible tomorrow.
ALT Tide gauge reading.
CaliforniaDisasters retweeted
China: Scientists have identified the first surface rupture from the 22 October magnitude 7.0 Baqên earthquake in Tibet, about 15 km east of the epicentre.
The fault produced around 3.5 metres of vertical displacement, with up to 0.9 metres of left-lateral movement locally.
Investigators also found sand liquefaction and ground fissures. The earthquake was caused primarily by normal faulting as the crust stretched.
