Caleb Matas Pete

🏈 NFL Sunday. Here's what I'm on today 👇 Vikings +3 at DET | 1u Browns +3.5 at PIT | 1u ⭐ Bears +3 at SEA (MNF) | 2u NFL record through Week 6: 6-3, +3.95u 📈 Every pick is logged in my Action Network bet slip, link in bio 👆👆 #CalebsPicks 21+ | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Hard not say Sweetness. Also Julius peppers or Khalil Mack in their prime would make this DL unstoppable.

Apparently putting our WR room in S-tier means I think Rome Odunze is better than Justin Jefferson. No. I’m ranking the whole room, not picking one player for a fantasy draft. You can have the best receiver in the division and still not have the best receiving corps. Depth counts. The second and third options count. My opinion: Jefferson can win the individual argument without Minnesota winning the room argument. Which NFC North team has the biggest drop-off from WR1 to WR3?

NFL trade-deadline impact tiers Names in trade reporting or discussed by major insiders. Ranking impact on a contender, NOT likelihood of a deal. • S+ — Changes your franchise: Justin Herbert, Chargers QB* • S — Changes your offense: Jonathan Taylor, Colts RB • A — Big swing: Josh Sweat, Cardinals EDGE Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars WR • B — Makes a good team better: Josh Downs, Colts WR Christian Barmore, Patriots DT Grover Stewart, Colts DT Dallas Goedert, Eagles TE Tony Pollard, Titans RB Carlton Davis III, Patriots CB Riq Woolen, Eagles CB • C — Right role, right price: Calvin Ridley, Titans WR Hollywood Brown, Eagles WR Davon Godchaux, Saints DT Nathan Shepherd, Saints DT *Herbert is the hypothetical here: Albert Breer suggested Minnesota should call, but explicitly said he does NOT expect the Chargers to make him available. The others have surfaced in trade reporting—not confirmed deals or guarantees they’re available. Jacksonville is reportedly reluctant to move Thomas. Woolen is the call I’d want us making. Who’s too high, who’s too low, and who would you want your team calling about?

NFC North ground games, both sides of the ball (my opinion, 6-2 edition). Rushing yards gained minus rushing yards allowed, per game: • S: Bears, +64.8. That's 151.8 for and 87.0 against, 2nd in the NFL behind only Tampa Bay, who we play Sunday. • A: Lions, +34.4 (132.1 for, 97.7 against). • C: Vikings, -1.1 (115.9 for, 117.0 against). 6-1 anyway, which is its own kind of magic. • D: Packers, -49.0. They run for 62.6 a game, last in the NFL by 16 yards. The passing game has done a lot of heavy lifting.

"He elevates everybody." We've spent the last 24 hours arguing Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze against the rest of the NFC North, and meanwhile our WR3 is quietly doing this: • Kalif Raymond: 28 catches on 34 targets (82.4% catch rate) • 258 yards, 1 TD, 13 first downs That's why I put our WR room in S-tier. Even our third option barely hits the turf (my opinion).

Huge Friday news for Sunday night: ZERO Bears ruled Out or Doubtful, and Theo Benedet is FULL with no injury designation. • Cleared to roll: Theo Benedet, Grady Jarrett, D'Marco Jackson, T.J. Edwards, Joe Thuney • Back at practice (Questionable): Kyle Monangai — first practice since Week 4 • Questionable in the secondary: Tyrique Stevenson (new thumb issue) and Malik Muhammad (toe) Meanwhile, Tampa just ruled OUT starting edge Yaya Diaby (tied for their team lead in QB hits). Getting Benedet cleared on the exact night they're down a top pass rusher is big for keeping Caleb clean.

Since Caleb came back, we're 3-0. Sunday night is the biggest ball-security test yet. Caleb since returning (Weeks 6-8): • 860 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs on 111 attempts Tampa Bay's defense: • NFL-high 12 interceptions • 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed • 3rd-most blitzes in the league, 103 (per A to Z Sports) The Bucs take the ball away more than anyone. Caleb hasn't thrown a pick in three games. 7:20 PM CT on NBC.

The Bears and Buccaneers spent 25 seasons in the same division and have played 62 regular-season games since 1977. This week is somehow the FIRST Sunday Night Football game between the two teams at Soldier Field in NFL history. Why? Their only other Sunday night meeting was December 29, 2002 — when Soldier Field was torn up for renovations, so we hosted Tampa two hours south at Memorial Stadium in Champaign: • Final score: Buccaneers 15, Bears 0 (zero touchdowns) • Every single point came on five Martin Gramatica field goals, all kicked into the same end zone with the wind • Starting QBs: CFL legend Henry Burris in his first NFL start for us (7-of-19, 78 yards, 4 INTs) vs. Rob Johnson • Four weeks later, that Tampa team won Super Bowl XXXVII Last week, those same Bucs won 16-0 without completing a pass. Twenty-four years later, we finally get them on a Sunday night at actual Soldier Field — and this time we're rolling out Caleb Williams.

Half my mentions since yesterday are Packers fans telling me Luther Burden III would be WR3 in Green Bay behind Matthew Golden. Let's actually put the two next to each other (8 games each): • Luther Burden III: 42 catches on 56 targets (75.0%), 547 yards, 3 TDs, 9.8 yards/target, NFC North-high 286 YAC • Matthew Golden: 43 catches on 82 targets (52.4%), 619 yards, 4 TDs, 7.5 yards/target, 193 YAC Golden needed 26 more targets just to finish with ONE more catch — and Burden played three of those games without Caleb Williams. Since Caleb came back in Week 6 (3 games each): • Burden: 19 catches, 281 yards, 2 TDs on 21 targets (13.4 Y/T) • Golden: 19 catches, 222 yards, 2 TDs on 38 targets (5.8 Y/T) Same catches. Same TDs. Seventeen fewer targets. Respectfully, that is not our WR3 (my opinion).

Our cornerback market, heading into Tuesday's trade deadline: • Per Thomas R. Petersen, we're in "deep competition" with the Lions for Eagles CB Riq Woolen • Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, a Day 3 pick could get a deal done • Woolen is on a one-year deal with 12 career INTs in 72 games (per Heavy.com) • Per SI, he thrives in man coverage, and only one team plays more man than we do Where we stand: 6-2, with 5 interceptions all season and the 11th-best EPA per dropback allowed (nflverse). A veteran corner for a Day 3 pick, and Detroit is watching the same clock...

Look at the NFC North slate this weekend and tell me things aren't setting up nicely for a 6-2 Bears team heading into the bye: • Bears (6-2): Hosting 3-5 Tampa Bay under the Soldier Field lights, where we're already 3-0 in primetime this season by a combined +43. • Vikings (6-1): Kyler Murray is out (hamstring), so Carson Wentz gets 6-1 Josh Allen and the Bills on Monday night with an offense averaging 20.0 points per game. • Packers (5-3): Sitting at a +7 point differential and flying to Foxborough to play a 5-3 Patriots team we just put 30 on. • Lions (5-2): Road trip to 1-6 Miami while still trailing us in both the standings and point differential (+54 to +23). Handle our business Sunday night and let Buffalo do theirs Monday, and we walk into the Week 10 bye tied for first in the NFC North at 7-2.

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With every NFC team through Week 8, here is my honest (and slightly petty) NFC tier list entering Week 9: • "See You in January" — 49ers (6-1), Bears (6-2), Lions (5-2): San Francisco (+58) and Chicago (+54) own the top two point differentials in the conference, and Detroit just beat Green Bay and Minnesota back-to-back. Yes, I'm putting us here after 34-17 in Seattle. • "6-1 and I Still Have Questions" — Vikings (6-1): Allowing 13.3 points per game is ridiculous, yet Minnesota averages 20.0 points per game — 15th of 16 NFC teams, ahead of only 2-6 Philly (17.1). • "Winning Record, Sweating Every 4th Quarter" — Giants (4-2-1), Packers (5-3): A combined 9-5-1 record with a combined +9 point differential (+2 for New York, +7 for Green Bay). Stacking ugly wins still counts, even when none of them look comfortable. • "Way Better Than Their Record" — Rams (4-4), Seahawks (4-4), Buccaneers (3-5): 3-5 Tampa Bay (+27) has a better point differential right now than 5-2 Detroit (+23) and 5-3 Green Bay (+7), and walks into Soldier Field on Sunday night. LA and Seattle are both sitting at +26. • "Weekly Rollercoaster" — Cowboys (3-5), Panthers (3-4), Falcons (3-5): Dallas has scored the most total points in the NFC (219) and is somehow two games under .500. Atlanta beat 6-1 San Francisco by nine, then got shut out 16-0 the very next week. • "Checking April Mock Drafts" — Cardinals (3-5), Commanders (2-4-1), Saints (2-5), Eagles (2-6): Starting 2-0 and dropping six straight to sit at -65 in point differential puts Philly in a tier nobody saw coming in September. Just my opinion heading into Week 9 — which team did I get most wrong?

Colston Loveland is awake. In each of the last three weeks, he's had at least 6 catches and 65 yards, with 2 TDs over that stretch. He caught seven passes in Seattle and has become Caleb's second read behind Burden. On Sunday, he sees Alex Anzalone, who just had the first two-INT game of his career and won NFC Defensive Player of the Week. In Cover-2, the middle linebacker has to carry the tight end down the seam, or the coverage breaks. Loveland is 6-6 with a huge catch radius, and Anzalone is playing the best football of his time in Tampa. That's a real chess match in the middle of the field

Tampa's run game is heating up. So is our answer to it. From Weeks 1-4 to Weeks 5-8: • Bucs run success rate: 37.5% to 47.4% • Run success rate against us: 44.7% to 27.7% Only 18 of the 65 designed runs against us in Weeks 5-8 added expected points. Pittsburgh is the only defense that held runs to a lower success rate in that stretch. My take: Sunday night's matchup on the ground is closer than the rushing totals make it look.

Thursday's Bears injury report brings upgrades for Jarrett and Benedet, and Edwards is back in full. Here's what changed from Wednesday's estimated walk-through: • DT Grady Jarrett (groin): Limited, up from DNP. • OL Theo Benedet (shoulder): Limited, up from DNP. Practiced in a shoulder brace, per Nicholas Moreano. • LB T.J. Edwards (personal): Full, up from DNP. • LB D'Marco Jackson (ankle): DNP. New to the report. • OL Joe Thuney (rest): DNP. Not injury related. • RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe): Still DNP. • CB Malik Muhammad II (toe): Still limited. • RB Zavier Scott: Placed on IR today, per @BearsPR. My take: Jarrett getting work matters with Street on IR and Tampa's run game coming to Soldier Field, and Benedet's return matters up front. Neither upgrade means they're cleared for Sunday, so Friday's report is the next one to watch.