Jonathan Urlich

1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%.

I agree, the market needs to start looking at the price of the stuff we use, distillates (gasoline/diesel), and not the raw material to make it (crude oil). Diesel prices are soaring, especially in Europe. Consider that Russia/Ukraine might matter more for energy markets. -- Gasoil continues to soar in Europe, as the chart below shows. Gasoil is now well above May’s peak (when crude prices were over $140 per barrel). Europe gets its diesel from Russia, and Ukraine keeps blowing up their refineries. Russian refinery output is down by more than half, and they’re no longer exporting diesel, and there’s a real shortage in Europe right now. -- Gasoil is the raw middle distillate that comes straight out of the refinery, and it serves as the foundation for a whole family of fuels — including road diesel (45% of all gasoil), jet fuel/kerosene (18%), industrial & agricultural off-road diesel (17%), heating oil (12%), and marine (bunker) fuel (8%) — each of which is further processed and refined to meet the specific standards of its end use.

Bond yields should come down on a short term rate hike, says @Michael_K_Farr He weighs in on how the Fed should act after the latest in earnings season. cnbc.com/video/2026/08/05/bo…

The EU can increase its finances without raising taxes by leveraging joint debt, optimizing existing funds, mobilizing private capital and cracking down on financial waste, such as reducing or shifting funds away from CAP and Cohesion Funds and diverting them to high-growth

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI: “Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society. When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.” This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

For those who missed it yesterday. What's wrong with economics, economists and the Economy youtube.com/live/kxxgn0dUZRA… via @YouTube

Trumponomics and his grift have steered the US economic toward deep recession. U.S. credit card delinquencies are surging, with nearly 12% of balances 90+ days past due by early 2026, marking the highest levels since 2011.

#Breaking..."#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"... #Trump claims Talks with #Iran going well... #Irán claims no talks... Who do you believe @PaulGambles2 @Halsrethink @Smaulgld @HarrisSamaras ? "The gift that keeps on giving...#Market VOL continues...

Trump tells CNBC he is pausing some strikes for five days after talks with Iran @CNBC cnbc.com/2026/03/23/trump-ir…

Homebuilder sentiment fell to 36 vs ests for an uptick to 38. This worsening occurred despite mortgage rates continuing to decline, now the lowest since Sept 2022 at 6.18%. Home prices haven't budged much, and affordability remains low.