@CapitalTalk2

Investing, books and other musings. https://xitter.cf/t.co/AAZf5gi69E • Portfolio: @portfolioRoc

Joined December 2019
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Introducing the improved ROC site! returnoncap.com Fixed my atrocious interface and centralized everything for those not on the mailing lists. Sample articles: returnoncap.com/index.php/sa… Company profiles: returnoncap.com/index.php/co… Bookshelf: returnoncap.com/index.php/bo…
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Return on Capital retweeted
Shehryar Khursheed@ShehryarKhur2 Jun 2021
Posted my May 2021 booklist yesterday. This month we have OPM, Cancer and the China/US rivalry. Thoughts and recommendations welcome! Book List - May 2021 skbooklist.substack.com/p/bo…
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Return on Capital retweeted
Devin Wanzor
@DevinWanzor12 May 2021
1/ There seems to be a big uptick in tweet activity lately about how easy/great it is to use an SBA loan to acquire a SMB and just start living on easy street. I've acquired many SMB's, and just recently (Jan.) did an acquisition with an SBA 7A loan....
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Another newsletter for ya! Moved my monthly book list to Substack. Much easier than maintaining an email list given how big its gotten. If you're unfamiliar, here I simply go through the books I read each month. Feel free to sign up if you'd like. skbooklist.substack.com/p/co…
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Here's a link to last month's list. This isn't meant to help you in your professional or personal lives or anything. I just like to read random books on things like the history of salt or general relativity or neurology. All in good fun! us19.admin.mailchimp.com/cam…
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Oops wrong link. Here you go: returnoncap.com/index.php/bo…
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I think it’s being able to quantify tail risks. Generally, the good companies we study will continue to do well in the status quo unless some tail risk manifests itself. Think EVs, COVID, AI, etc. So, lots of thinking required on how the industry/world/company will change.
Chris Bernatz@jj_shipley12 Mar 2021
Since we don't believe it's volatility, what best measures the risk of a financial asset?
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And I guess when I say quantify, it’s thinking about how much revenue is at risk, how much the company would need to invest to survive, things like that. I would say it changes depending on the situation.
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Company is Severstal PJSC, a mining company. I have no view on the company - just interesting to see how the economics are very different than we’d expect for a mining co. It’s also a Russian company so do with that info what you will...
Return on Capital@CapitalTalk224 Feb 2021
Just for fun, try to guess the industry. I guarantee you won't get it... If you'd like, does it look like a good company? What would you be willing to pay for it?
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Just for fun, try to guess the industry. I guarantee you won't get it... If you'd like, does it look like a good company? What would you be willing to pay for it?
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Can someone walk me through the $FB math? Trades at ~$240 net cash and made $11.50/sh pre-tax in 2020, for a 21x multiple. Expected to grow 10-15% going forward. And then you have an element of under-earning / potential optionality from other bets. Is that about right?
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10-bagger since this thread. I’m not too familiar with the business but it looks like a “facilitator” which is generally a good biz w/ network effects and all that jazz. Low teens P/E at the time w/ huge option value. And a micro cap at the time... Fish where the fish are!
RabbiJacob
@RabbiJacob162 Jun 2020
Anyone here ever Looked at Silvergate Bank $SI? 🔍 It's classified under "Regional Banks" and is under 300 Mln in market cap. Micro-cap so to say. 2 Billion in deposits but just 2 Branches. Interesting? 🤔 Let's take a look🧵:
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The second half of this paragraph looks like it was written in 2020. Author points out a very important caveat -- when cheap funding is available, all bets are off... (I keep sharing stuff from this book - its just so good)
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The $AMZN bull case in one paragraph. Written in 2007.
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Article makes decent points but $DIS multiple cannot be compared to $NFLX due to (1) structural differences in growth profiles and (2) severely depressed earnings. I do agree that there is too much focus on streaming numbers. wsj.com/articles/disney-is-p…

Disney Is Priced for a Thrill Ride

Strong streaming growth has propelled the stock to a record valuation despite the coronavirus pandemic’s continued pain.

wsj.com
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1/ I say this partly in jest, but I worry about maintenance spend for content companies going forward. $NFLX is releasing a new movie every week in 2021. $DIS has committed to theatre-quality movies on Disney+...
Return on Capital@CapitalTalk211 Feb 2021
$DIS adding over 130,000 subs per day but who’s counting? 🤷‍♂️
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4/ We can look at $NFLX's 30% margins and avail ourselves, but remember $NFLX achieved these margins in the absence of real competition. Maybe we will see a world with 2-3 dominant players, but they may operate at structurally lower margins.
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5/ This doesn't destroy the bull thesis for $NFLX and $DIS. But it does destroy the bull thesis for new competitors. It also implies subscriber numbers aren't everything and the market's myopic focus on this one measure might lead to unrealistic expectations.
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$DIS adding over 130,000 subs per day but who’s counting? 🤷‍♂️
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