Asia at 16:30 AEDT. Hang Seng Tech 3,798.4 (-4.88%), a two-year low. HS50 22,928.5 (-3.06%), a three-month low. Alibaba -6%, NetEase -6.8%, Lenovo -8.9%. Nikkei 63,154.7 (-2.4%) on the US tech selloff and oil.

US futures seeing a bid after the worst week since June. NDX +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, S&P +0.37%, Wall Street +0.31%.

UKRAINE TO RESUME RUSSIA REFINERY STRIKES, ZELENSKYY TELLS FT

Desk Note (AU) | Thu 15 Oct AU and US rate expectations split overnight. Australian employment fell 39,300 in September against a forecast +20,000, yields dropped on the print, and traders cut their bets on a November follow-up to the RBA's 4.60%. US September CPI was above forecast on every line. Headline 3.7%, core 2.6%, 0.6% on the month. October hike odds jumped to 30-50% depending on the source. The FOMC meets on the 28th. The S&P fell 1.11% to 7,718.94, its worst day since July. Iran has stated what it is doing in Hormuz. Officials say the ship-targeting tactics are meant to keep crude high and pressure Washington before the midterms. Transits are running at five a day against a pre-war average near 138. Market tone overnight: Brent $106.06 (+0.35%), WTI $95.09 (+1.01%) Spot Gold ~$4,086 (-1.9%), Silver down more than 5% S&P 500 7,718.94 (-1.11%), Nasdaq 26,692.87 (-1.88%) US 10Y 5.19%, ASX 200 ~8,728 (-0.64%), AUD/USD ~0.6968 Today watch: the AU curve into 28 October, Hormuz transit counts, and whether gold defends $4,000. Info only. Platform data reflects aggregated activity; not market-wide.

(Xinhua) -- Yemen's Houthi group warned shareholders of Saudi energy giant Aramco of what it described as potential financial losses in the coming days, Houthi-run al-Masirah TV reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed military source within the group. The Houthi military source advised Aramco shareholders to "dispose of their shares" to avoid potential losses in the coming days, according to the report.

Desk Note (AU) | Mon 21 Sep 2026, 09:50 AEST Saudi Arabia issued air-raid alerts for Riyadh at the weekend, the first for the capital since the height of the war in March and April. Crude did not follow. Brent is $100.40 and WTI $96.08, both slightly lower. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, unanimous 12-0 and the first increase since 2023. Warsh committed to a "timelier return" to 2%. Sixteen of eighteen participants expect another this year. Gold rose on the decision rather than fell. Spot went up 2.5% to $4,368.91 the day after and sits at $4,374 now. ETF investors added close to $2bn in the five sessions before the meeting, so the hike was already in the price. CBA moved its RBA call forward from November to September, following Westpac on Friday. NAB, Deutsche, UBS and Morgan Stanley are all on 25bp to 4.60%. Decision is due on 29th September. The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,731.20, a third straight weekly fall and down about 4% over four weeks. Cocoa is down 5.68%. Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% on the year, with port arrivals to 13 September up 18%. Market tone: Brent $100.40 (-0.27%), WTI $96.08 (-0.37%) Spot Gold $4,374.11 (-0.09%), Spot Silver $66.32 (+0.13%) Cocoa 5,364.1 (-5.68%), Chicago Wheat 716.8 (-1.66%), Copper 6.7387 (+0.37%) Today watch: Trump statements on Iran, Houthis.

Desk Note (AU) | Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:55 AEST The Houthis took the Yemeni port of Mocha and are attacking the Hanish islands, with reports of a landing on Mayun Island inside Bab el-Mandeb. The strait carries about 10% of global oil supply and is Saudi Arabia's main route to Asian buyers. US PPI rose 0.4% in August, in line, annual rate accelerated to 5.4%, the highest this year and a tenth above forecast. Gold is $4,316, flat on the session and about 2% below Thursday's $4,405. US equities fell for a fourth straight session. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.90%, its highest since October 2023. Trump said the US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz "very soon". CSIS satellite analysis published Wednesday showed more road activity at the site in 2026 than at any point in its history. Market tone: Brent $106.83 (+1.43%), WTI $100.78 (+1.12%) Spot Gold $4,316 (-0.03%), Spot Silver $63.43 (-0.2%) Today watch: Houthi movement on the Hanish group, Saudi rerouting of Asian barrels, and whether crude holds above $100 Info only. Platform data reflects aggregated activity; not market-wide.

Oils higher on Iran news: Brent NOV $90.35 +2.3% WTI OCT $85.60 +2.5%

Expect a volatile open in energy markets given renewed Iran strikes. Futures open in 2 minutes.

DOJ is “now reviving” prize courts, which he described as an “ancient body of maritime law.” news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law…

SecScottBessent via X: "The Islamic Republic has subsisted by dressing extortion as security guarantees. It has drawn strength from a calculus that regards Iranian retaliation as certain and American enforcement as negotiable. Under President Trump, that era is over. And those who fear the danger of defying Tehran ought not to discount the cost of testing Washington"

SecScottBessent via FT: "Nations that, in courting reprieve from Tehran, continue to replenish the very regime from which they seek protection — and now exceed the limits of America’s tolerance"

Desk Note (AU) | Mon 24 Aug 2026, 09:32 AEST Monday futures open quiet across US and European indices. Oil is opening lower again as the Iran/Hormuz story continues to unwind through positioning. Silver and gold catching a modest bid. The US-Canada trade dispute is the standout FX story on the open. Trump's 50% tariff on certain Canadian imports remains in force (energy, critical minerals, autos and metals excluded), and Mark Carney has said "everything's on the table" in response. Grains were bid Friday: Corn +1.48%, Soybeans +0.64%, Wheat +0.19%. Consistent with the ongoing El Niño and crop-stress narrative. Market tone (Monday futures-open): US 500 7,676 (+0.02%) WTI $85.85 (-1.16%), Brent $91.80 (-1.13%) Spot Gold $4,613 (+0.2%), Spot Silver $69.07 (+0.15%) Today watch: US-Canada tariff developments Info only. Platform data reflects aggregated activity; not market-wide.

Very quiet open. Index futures open flat. Oils, metals broadly unchanged.

Desk Note (AU) | Wed 12 Aug 2026, 08:17 AEST Oils rose again after Iran insisted the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met. Super Micro surged postmarket on a big revenue outlook beat. CoreWeave jumped as Q2 sales more than doubled. Market tone: S&P 500 7,728 (-0.3%) Dow 53,792 (-0.3%) WTI $83.46 (+1.6%) Brent $89.18 (+1.7%) USD/JPY 159.36 Today watch: US July CPI at 22:30 AEST Info only. Platform data reflects aggregated activity; not market-wide.

Desk Note (AU) | Tue 11 Aug 2026, 07:58 AEST Nvidia in partnership with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman and KKR to raise $500bn for AI infrastructure. Intel is offering $15bn in common stock/ Brent rose above $87 with the Hormuz dispute still unresolved. The yen extended losses to ~159 per dollar. RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% today Market tone: S&P 500 7,753 (-0.1%), WTI $82.37 (+5.4%), Brent $87.89 (+5.2%) USD/JPY 159.32 (+1.0%) Today watch: RBA decision at 14:30 AEST, Iran/Hormuz oil Info only. Platform data reflects aggregated activity; not market-wide.