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π¨ WEEK 9 DvP MATCHUPS π¨
Went game-by-game through the slate and pulled out the biggest positional weaknesses to target for player props.
QB rushing, RB volume, WR production and TE matchups are all covered.
Save these sheets for your Week 9 research π
All #1 matchups πππ
π€ Made with AI
π NBA TOP-10 DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS π₯
Only 2 games on tonight's slate, but there are some VERY favorable matchups worth looking into for player props! π
π Breaking down the best matchups for:
π― Points
π Rebounds
π― Assists
π₯ Threes Made
π FGA / 3PA
#1 = MOST allowed to that position this season.
π₯ Jase Richardson has FIVE #1 matchups!
π₯ Podziemski has SIX Top-10 matchups!
π₯ Carter Jr. and Miles Bridges have multiple #1 rankings!
FULL GAME-BY-GAME BREAKDOWN π§΅π
π WARRIORS @ HEAT β TOP-10 MATCHUPS π₯
π GSW vs MIA
β’ Podziemski: 3PM #1 | 3PA #2 | PTS #4 | FGA #4 | REB #8 | AST #8
β’ Curry: PTS #3 | 3PM #3 | 3PA #7
β’ Lendeborg: 3PM #3 | AST #5 | FGA #9 | 3PA #10
β’ Will Richard: AST #2
β’ Draymond: 3PM #10
π₯ MIA vs GSW
β’ Davion Mitchell: 3PA #3 | PTS #4 | FGA #4 | 3PM #7 | AST #8
β’ Klay Thompson: AST #5 | FGA #8 | REB #9 | PTS #10
β’ Giannis: PTS #7 | 3PM #8
π Podziemski has 6 Top-10 matchups, including #1 in threes made!
π MAGIC @ SUNS β TOP-10 MATCHUPS π₯
π΅ ORL vs PHX
β’ Jase Richardson: PTS #1 | REB #1 | 3PM #1 | FGA #1 | 3PA #1
β’ Wendell Carter Jr.: PTS #1 | REB #1 | FGA #1 | AST #4
β’ Anthony Black: 3PM #5
β’ Desmond Bane: AST #1 | REB #10
π PHX vs ORL
β’ Miles Bridges: PTS #1 | FGA #1 | REB #8 | AST #8
β’ Dillon Brooks: AST #6
β’ Devin Booker: AST #2 | REB #5
β’ Khaman Maluach: AST #5
π₯ Jase Richardson has FIVE #1 matchups! Carter Jr. and Bridges also have multiple #1 rankings.
In case you missed it! β¬β¬β¬
π¨π¨ Jaguars @ Ravens π¨π¨
π Jaguars defense
Allows 4th most passing yards to QB
Allows 8th most completions to QB
Allows 8th most receiving targets to RB
Allows 6th most receptions to RB
Allows MOST receiving yards to WR
Allows 6th most receiving targets to WR
Allows 5th most receptions to WR
π¦ββ¬ Ravens defense
Allows 5th most receiving yards to WR
Allows 7th most receptions to WR
Allows 5th most receiving TDs to TE
#DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
π¨π¨ Jaguars @ Ravens π¨π¨
π Jaguars defense
Allows 4th most passing yards to QB
Allows 8th most completions to QB
Allows 8th most receiving targets to RB
Allows 6th most receptions to RB
Allows MOST receiving yards to WR
Allows 6th most receiving targets to WR
Allows 5th most receptions to WR
π¦ββ¬ Ravens defense
Allows 5th most receiving yards to WR
Allows 7th most receptions to WR
Allows 5th most receiving TDs to TE
#DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
Easiest Poly cash of all time π¦π¦π¦
π for $25 -> polymarket.us/squad/join/b6Nβ¦
CJ had 12 asst on 17 potentials last game when he was out, so a 3.5 line is something I have to buy.
πππ This is -250 on sports books now but -138 on Poly β> polymarket.us/squad/join/b6Nβ¦
#polymarketpartner
Capper_KALE π₯¬ retweeted
π NBA TOP-10 DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS π
14 games. 7 DvP sheets. 95 players with at least one Top-10 matchup!
π₯ Some #1 matchups worth investigating:
β’ Damian Lillard β PTS, REB, FGA, 3PA, PRA
β’ Ja'Kobe Walter β PTS, AST, FGA, 3PA, PRA
β’ Anthony Davis β REB, PRA
β’ Klay Thompson β AST, PRA
β’ Donovan Clingan β REB, PRA
β’ Ajay Mitchell β REB, FGA
β’ Isaiah Hartenstein β FGA, 3PA
β’ Kris Dunn β PTS, 3PA
β’ Derrick White β AST
β’ Lauri Markkanen β 3PA
β’ Evan Mobley β 3PA
β’ Jaime Jaquez Jr. β REB
β’ Cameron Boozer β AST
β’ Jaxson Hayes β AST
β’ Walker Kessler β PTS
π Rankings are color-coded:
π’ #1β3 | π΅ #4β6 | π©· #7β10
NEW: Added PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists) to the sheets!
If these sheets help, a LIKE or RT goes a long way! π€
#NBA #NBAProps
Capper_KALE π₯¬ retweeted
π 100% HIT RATE PARLAY (+488) π₯
All 6 props have hit in EVERY game this season!
β
Trae Young 8+ AST β 7/7
β
Tyrese Maxey 25+ P+A β 8/8
β
KAT 10+ REB β 7/7
β
Jayson Tatum 6+ AST β 7/7
β
Julius Randle 10+ R+A β 7/7
β
Zion Williamson 15+ PTS β 7/7
43/43 combined hit rates this season! π―
Added a 50% profit boost to get +488!
Full matchup breakdown and supporting trends in the graphic below π
Capper_KALE π₯¬ retweeted
π 6-Leg DvP Parlay (+471) π₯
Targeting some of the BEST defensive matchups on tonightβs NBA slate!
π― Trae Young 25+ P+A
β’ ATL #8 vs Guard AST
β’ Facing his former team
π― Anthony Davis 8+ REB
β’ ATL #1 vs PF REB
π― NAW 2+ Threes
β’ WAS #2 vs Guard 3PA
β’ 7/8 hitting 2+ threes this season
π― Jalen Brunson 30+ P+A
β’ CHI #2 vs P+A
β’ CHI #1 in Pace
β’ CHI #1 vs AST
β’ 10/12 H2H hitting 30+ P+A
π― Darius Garland 25+ P+A
β’ MIA #2 vs Guard PTS
β’ MIA #2 vs Guard PRA
π― Damian Lillard 18+ PTS
β’ PHX #1 vs PG PTS
β’ PHX #29 vs Pull-Up Shooting
β’ PHX #25 vs Spot-Up Scoring
A combination of favorable DvP matchups, strong hit rates and H2H trends.
π₯ 30% Profit Boost β +501
Capper_KALE π₯¬ retweeted
π Landry Shamet OVER 1.5 Threes vs. CHI
$25 Link π polymarket.us/squad/join/b6Nβ¦
π Shamet This Season
* 2+ threes in 5/7 games (71%)
* 3PM: 0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 0, 4
* Averaging 2.3 threes on 5.0 attempts
* Averaging 24.9 minutes per game
* 78% of his shot-type attempts are catch-and-shoot
π₯ Josh Hart OUT β Opportunity Boost
Hart is averaging 31.7 minutes per game and will miss his first game of the season tonight.
That creates a significant opening in New Yorkβs rotation, with Shamet among the candidates to absorb additional minutes or move into the starting lineup.
Shamet is already coming off his best performance of the season against Brooklyn:
* 22 points
* 4/6 from three
* 30 minutes
* 6/8 from the field
He has now made 4 threes in two of his last three games.
π― Matchup vs. Chicago
Chicagoβs defensive shooting-zone rankings include:
* #27 in the perimeter shooting zone
* #29 defending the left-side perimeter zone
* #26 defending the opposite corner
* #16 defending spot-up plays
This is particularly interesting because spot-up opportunities account for 74% of Shametβs play-type points (4.1 PPG).
His offensive role revolves around spacing the floor and knocking down perimeter shots, and Chicagoβs weaker shooting-zone rankings provide a favorable matchup.
Minutes πππ
Played 30 minutes last game and is AVG 24.5 minutes per game this season
With Hart out I expect 25+ minutes
With 25+ minutes heβs made 2-3 in 11 straight and 3+ threes in 6 straight
CJ had 12 asst on 17 potentials last game when he was out, so a 3.5 line is something I have to buy.
πππ This is -250 on sports books now but -138 on Poly β> polymarket.us/squad/join/b6Nβ¦
#polymarketpartner
π Landry Shamet OVER 1.5 Threes vs. CHI
$25 Link π polymarket.us/squad/join/b6Nβ¦
π Shamet This Season
* 2+ threes in 5/7 games (71%)
* 3PM: 0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 0, 4
* Averaging 2.3 threes on 5.0 attempts
* Averaging 24.9 minutes per game
* 78% of his shot-type attempts are catch-and-shoot
π₯ Josh Hart OUT β Opportunity Boost
Hart is averaging 31.7 minutes per game and will miss his first game of the season tonight.
That creates a significant opening in New Yorkβs rotation, with Shamet among the candidates to absorb additional minutes or move into the starting lineup.
Shamet is already coming off his best performance of the season against Brooklyn:
* 22 points
* 4/6 from three
* 30 minutes
* 6/8 from the field
He has now made 4 threes in two of his last three games.
π― Matchup vs. Chicago
Chicagoβs defensive shooting-zone rankings include:
* #27 in the perimeter shooting zone
* #29 defending the left-side perimeter zone
* #26 defending the opposite corner
* #16 defending spot-up plays
This is particularly interesting because spot-up opportunities account for 74% of Shametβs play-type points (4.1 PPG).
His offensive role revolves around spacing the floor and knocking down perimeter shots, and Chicagoβs weaker shooting-zone rankings provide a favorable matchup.
Minutes πππ
Played 30 minutes last game and is AVG 24.5 minutes per game this season
With Hart out I expect 25+ minutes
With 25+ minutes heβs made 2-3 in 11 straight and 3+ threes in 6 straight
π 6-Leg DvP Parlay (+471) π₯
Targeting some of the BEST defensive matchups on tonightβs NBA slate!
π― Trae Young 25+ P+A
β’ ATL #8 vs Guard AST
β’ Facing his former team
π― Anthony Davis 8+ REB
β’ ATL #1 vs PF REB
π― NAW 2+ Threes
β’ WAS #2 vs Guard 3PA
β’ 7/8 hitting 2+ threes this season
π― Jalen Brunson 30+ P+A
β’ CHI #2 vs P+A
β’ CHI #1 in Pace
β’ CHI #1 vs AST
β’ 10/12 H2H hitting 30+ P+A
π― Darius Garland 25+ P+A
β’ MIA #2 vs Guard PTS
β’ MIA #2 vs Guard PRA
π― Damian Lillard 18+ PTS
β’ PHX #1 vs PG PTS
β’ PHX #29 vs Pull-Up Shooting
β’ PHX #25 vs Spot-Up Scoring
A combination of favorable DvP matchups, strong hit rates and H2H trends.
π₯ 30% Profit Boost β +501
π 1. Trae Young 25+ Points + Assists vs. ATL
Really interesting spot for Trae facing his former team for the first time.
Trae is averaging 29.9 P+A this season, clearing 25+ in 5/7 games (71%). Heβs also averaging 10.0 assists per game, giving him multiple ways to reach this number.
π₯ Atlanta Defensive Matchup:
#8 in assists allowed to opposing guards
Allowing 114.0 points per game
Trae has recorded 8+ assists in 7/7 games
The revenge-game narrative adds some intrigue, but the biggest selling point is his consistent playmaking. Heβs already averaging 10 assists per game, meaning he only needs around 15 points to reach this target.
Between his offensive responsibility, favorable assist matchup and first opportunity to face his former team, I like this spot for Trae.
βΈ»
π 2. Anthony Davis 8+ Rebounds vs. ATL
This is one of my favorite DvP matchups on the entire slip.
AD is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game, clearing 8+ in 5/7 games this season.
π₯ Atlanta Defensive Matchup:
#1 in rebounds allowed to opposing PFs
AD has grabbed 12, 9, 6, 10, 5, 13 and 9 rebounds
13 and 9 rebounds over his last two games
Playing 34 minutes in each of his last two
Atlanta has been extremely vulnerable on the glass against opposing power forwards, making this an excellent matchup for Davis.
Heβs recorded 8+ rebounds in five of seven games, and his recent minutes suggest he should have plenty of opportunities.
With Atlanta ranking dead last in rebounds allowed to his position, AD 8+ rebounds is one of my favorite matchup-based targets tonight.
βΈ»
π 3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker 2+ Threes vs. WAS
Really like the perimeter matchup for NAW against a Washington defense thatβs been giving up a ton of opportunities from deep.
π NAW This Season:
2+ threes in 7/8 games (88%)
Averaging 3.9 made threes
Averaging 9.6 attempts per game
Coming off 9/15 from deep vs. IND
π₯ Washington Defensive Matchup:
#2 in 3PA allowed to opposing guards
NAW is averaging nearly 10 attempts per game
Only needs 2 makes to clear this target
The combination of NAWβs massive shot volume and Washingtonβs struggles limiting perimeter attempts makes this matchup particularly appealing.
Heβs attempted enough threes to give himself multiple chances to cash this number, and Washingtonβs defensive profile suggests another high-volume shooting opportunity.
For me, this is one of the strongest consistency plays on the slip.
βΈ»
π 4. Jalen Brunson 30+ Points + Assists vs. CHI
Brunson gets a Chicago defense that has struggled containing opposing guards all season.
π Brunson This Season:
Averaging 29.9 P+A
30+ P+A in 4/7 games
24.6 PPG and 5.3 APG
π₯ Chicago Defensive Matchup:
#28 defending Points + Assists
#30 in assists allowed
#29 in overall defensive rating
#1 in pace
The historical matchup is even more encouraging.
Brunson has recorded 30+ P+A in 10/12 games against Chicago (83%), averaging nearly 40 P+A across those meetings.
He just faced the Bulls on October 28 and dropped 38 points and 7 assists (45 P+A).
Chicagoβs fast pace creates additional possessions, while its defensive struggles against opposing playmakers make this a favorable spot for Brunson.
The current-season hit rate is only 4/7, but the DvP matchup and historical dominance make this a target I like.
π 5. Darius Garland 25+ Points + Assists vs. MIA
Garland gets one of the better positional matchups on the slate against a Miami defense that has struggled defending opposing guards.
π Garland This Season:
Averaging 26.7 P+A
20.1 PPG and 6.6 APG
25+ P+A in 4/7 games
Played 36 minutes last game
π₯ Miami Defensive Matchup:
#2 in points allowed to opposing guards
#2 in PRA allowed to opposing guards
Allowing 123.9 points per game
The defensive matchup is the biggest reason Iβm interested in Garland.
Miami has consistently allowed substantial production to opposing guards, and Garlandβs ability to contribute as both a scorer and facilitator gives him multiple ways to clear this target.
His recent production has been inconsistent, clearing 25+ P+A in only two of his last five games, but the minutes are encouraging.
If he continues seeing 35+ minutes, Miamiβs defensive weaknesses could provide the opportunity for a bounce-back performance.
βΈ»
π 6. Damian Lillard 18+ Points vs. PHX
Really liking this matchup for Dame against a Phoenix defense that has struggled defending guards and perimeter scoring.
π Dame This Season:
18+ points in 5/6 games (83%)
Averaging 19.3 PPG
Scoring totals: 25, 19, 21, 9, 22, 20
Averaging 2.8 threes per game
π₯ Phoenix Defensive Matchup:
#1 in points allowed to opposing PGs
#30 in overall defensive rating
#29 defending pull-up shooting
#25 defending spot-up scoring
#23 defending PnR ball handlers
Dame already faced Phoenix on opening night and dropped 25 points in just 24 minutes, knocking down 6/10 from three.
The matchup fits his offensive style extremely well. Phoenix has struggled defending pull-up jumpers and pick-and-roll ball handlers, two areas where Dame can generate his offense.
Heβs also reached at least 19 points in five of six games, meaning heβs been clearing the 18+ target pretty consistently.
Between the elite DvP matchup, favorable shot-type defensive rankings and his previous performance against Phoenix, Dame 18+ points is one of my favorite legs tonight.
π 100% HIT RATE PARLAY (+488) π₯
All 6 props have hit in EVERY game this season!
β
Trae Young 8+ AST β 7/7
β
Tyrese Maxey 25+ P+A β 8/8
β
KAT 10+ REB β 7/7
β
Jayson Tatum 6+ AST β 7/7
β
Julius Randle 10+ R+A β 7/7
β
Zion Williamson 15+ PTS β 7/7
43/43 combined hit rates this season! π―
Added a 50% profit boost to get +488!
Full matchup breakdown and supporting trends in the graphic below π
π NBA TOP-10 DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS π
14 games. 7 DvP sheets. 95 players with at least one Top-10 matchup!
π₯ Some #1 matchups worth investigating:
β’ Damian Lillard β PTS, REB, FGA, 3PA, PRA
β’ Ja'Kobe Walter β PTS, AST, FGA, 3PA, PRA
β’ Anthony Davis β REB, PRA
β’ Klay Thompson β AST, PRA
β’ Donovan Clingan β REB, PRA
β’ Ajay Mitchell β REB, FGA
β’ Isaiah Hartenstein β FGA, 3PA
β’ Kris Dunn β PTS, 3PA
β’ Derrick White β AST
β’ Lauri Markkanen β 3PA
β’ Evan Mobley β 3PA
β’ Jaime Jaquez Jr. β REB
β’ Cameron Boozer β AST
β’ Jaxson Hayes β AST
β’ Walker Kessler β PTS
π Rankings are color-coded:
π’ #1β3 | π΅ #4β6 | π©· #7β10
NEW: Added PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists) to the sheets!
If these sheets help, a LIKE or RT goes a long way! π€
#NBA #NBAProps























