Dean of the School of Global Policy and Strategy @UCSD; former @WorldBank; author of Rich People Poor Countries.

San Diego, CA
Joined March 2012
Diving into GPS prep at UC San Diego—microeconomics, modeling and new friends from around the world! Meet Evan, a new student and marketing intern, excited for the journey ahead. 🎓 Learn more: ow.ly/t0Wi50ZImJl #UCSanDiegoGPS #GradSchool #StudentLife
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Previous studies that find US importers paid tariffs treat trade flows symmetrically. Once the country-product trade flows are weighted by economic importance – or restricted to the dominant exporters of the most important products – a very different picture emerges.
Foreign exporters absorbed nearly half of the 2025 US tariff shock Caroline Freund @CarolineFreund @GPS_UCSD @UCSanDiego ow.ly/VcQc50ZAkFh
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Diversification is hard. China controls a large share of global supply and US controls a large share of global demand. Other countries want to replace China in production--not so much in consumption, despite consumption being the ultimate goal.
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International students bring a diversity of views & experiences + education is a major US export. Yet student visa appointments are scarce in select countries. Even allies like Japan. Makes me worry that student visas are now chips in trade negotiations. jp.usembassy.gov/visas/
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Controlling for transshipment and de minimis, we show that China is being replaced by . . China in US market. As direct imports from China fall, goods entering through transshipment and de minimis increase. Chapter 4 in The State of Globalisation | CEPR
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Caroline Freund retweeted
Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference! 😀 🗓️Friday, May 2, 2-7 PM 🎤Keynote: @m_maggiori 💬Policy Panel: @gilliantett @pogourinchas @CarolineFreund @JayCShambaugh Henry Farrell 🥂Reception 🧑‍🤝‍🧑Register at eventbrite.com/e/johns-hopki… 🔗: mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saism…
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In this episode of "Driven to solve," professor @KyleLHandley addresses his research focus on the process of how policy is made – and in some cases, unmade – and how it can create uncertainty for people making economic, business or investment decisions: ow.ly/bXjo50UVN0W
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Using product-level data, I estimated the share of US imports from Mexico and Vietnam that are likely to be transshipped from China. Full report here: 02072025-brief-identify-tariff-evasion-web.pdf
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The 2024 @SusanShirk1 Lecture on U.S.-China Relations by @FareedZakaria, renowned CNN host and author, to speak on a new path to U.S.-China relations, will be livestreamed here today at 5:30 p.m. PDT. youtube.com/live/yONigEqhQSc…
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I learned a lot in Tokyo from our amazing @GPS_UCSD alumni! Originally an International Relations and Pacific Studies (IRPS) program, we continue to have strong links with Asia.
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And some good news for US-China relations. The pandas are back at San Diego Zoo!
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GPS was privileged to have alumna Liliana Ferrer-Silva ’91 — who serves as the Ambassador of Mexico to Thailand, concurrent in Cambodia — to address the Class of 2024. #GPSCommencement
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