Trump has a bit where he quotes Mohammed bin Salman saying the US is "the hottest country." Trump gave a speech at the FII institute which is put on by Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Wealth Fund. I therefore thought he was extremely likely to do the bit. He did the bit.
Who knows when it will converge, but open arb between predictit and Kalshi for Antonia Villaraigosa in CA governor
This week I crossed 100k lifetime profit predicting
+89,500 on @Kalshi
+14,650 on @PredictIt
+670 on @Polymarket (prior to geofencing)
+32 on @ManifoldMarkets (sweepstakes era)
here's to the next 100k, I strongly suspect it won't take me as long.
I got my start with bonds, arbitrage, and negative risk. I'm grateful for the growth of prediction markets making me life changing money. I didn't run it up from some tiny deposit. I deposited 9k on Predictit and 40k on Kalshi.
It could also go to multiple people, a scenario I was aware of, but thought was unlikely. Worst trade of 2025 for me. I even tried to fade the "insider" AI yes buying and sold out of my AI no position at a loss.
Right now on @Kalshi time person of the year adds up to 117% and it could go to someone not listed yet!
Finally took the time to play around on a spreadsheet and the ROI on negative risking a market without collateral returns is abysmal. Like 3%, like if you spent $1000 to get 100 no shares for each bracket, you win $30 bucks. . .
Right now on @Kalshi time person of the year adds up to 117% and it could go to someone not listed yet!
You can bet on how much the budget will get cut by this year. Trump says hopefully 1 trillion. Market says 8% chance he cuts 1 trillion and 60% chance he doesn't cut overall spending this year.
kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtcut…
I had a very good meeting today with the Speaker of the House and some of our more Conservative Members, all great people. I let them know that, I AM FOR MAJOR SPENDING CUTS! WE ARE GOING TO DO REDUCTIONS, hopefully in excess of $1 Trillion Dollars, all of which will go into “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” I, along with House Members and Senators, will be pushing very hard to get these large scale Spending Cuts done, but we must get the Bill approved NOW. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Donald Trump Truth Social 04/08/25 06:11 PM
What makes it better than a regular casino is rather than just transferring money from gamblers to the house, prediction markets transfer money from gamblers to people building and through the market sharing accurate models of how the world works.
I want to bet that Black Myth: Wukong won't will game of the year at the Game Awards on December 12th.
@WhatsYaWager
@BovadaOfficial
#WhatsYaWager
