Warehouse Director | (Precious) Metals Zealot | Commodity Novice | Crypto Neophyte | Coffee Fiend | Politically Impartial | English/Dutch | #Gold #Commodities
The Netherlands
Joined November 2009
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Cellar Politics® retweeted
The "Fix" to slam gold is in...check out this dribble.
😃 Mutant gold-eating sea cucumbers.
😅 Graphene-coated lava tunnelling machine.
😁Guru, who makes gold by touch.
😆 Nuclear fusion of mercury into gold.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
The World Bank raised its 2027 price forecasts from April for copper, tin and zinc.
• Copper up 18% to $13,000 per metric ton
• Tin up 22% to $45,000
• Zinc up 13% to $3,100
All three are still forecast to average below this year, with copper 1.5% lower and tin and zinc about 11% to 12% lower as supply improves.
The bank expects copper to stay near record highs, with subdued mine supply growth and demand strengthening in 2027 and 2028 from power grids, data centers and electric vehicles.
World Bank lifts copper price outlook by 18% mining.com/world-bank-lifts-…
Cellar Politics® retweeted
A reminder:
If gold miners were a single sector, they would have the cleanest balance sheets, the strongest profit margins, and the most attractive valuations in the market today.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/top…
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Headlines say fusion reactors could end gold's scarcity.
So we ran the numbers. Matching one year of mined gold would take 730 gigawatts of fusion, nearly TWICE the world's nuclear fleet, and the grid has none today.
Our new Sound Money Report, written by @Handre.
Read below.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Silver’s gap to its 200-day average reached 25.0% on October 23, its widest since March 2020.
The gap has since narrowed to 24.1%, with futures at $54.11 an ounce against a 200-day average of $71.26.
On March 18, 2020, the gap reached 30.8%. Since 2001, a gap of at least 24.1% has occurred in 144 of 6,368 trading sessions.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Computers- > Cu
Cell phones- > Cu
EV/Netzero- > Cu
Drone warfare- > Cu
AI- >Cu
What comes next after AI?
Cellar Politics® retweeted
We haven't seen a US administration this pro-nuclear for two generations.
Got uranium (stocks)?
.@SecretaryWright: “The plan is to take 15 reactors at 8 different locations and uprate them. Meaning the plant behind me would get another 150MW of power output...
Significantly more energy, puts downward pressure on rates, allows more manufacturing, more jobs to be created."
Cellar Politics® retweeted
We at the start of a Sovereign Debt Crisis
My latest presentation (original in Dutch)
𝐊𝐨𝐦𝐭 𝐞𝐫 𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐚𝐭𝐬𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐮𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐬? 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐤𝐨𝐨𝐩'𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 – 𝐎𝐤𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔
Staan we aan de vooravond van een staatsschuldencrisis? In de Market Outlook van oktober legt @wmiddelkoop uit waarom centrale banken dollars inruilen voor goud, en waarom de huidige correctie in mijnbouwaandelen juist kansen biedt.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
𝐊𝐨𝐦𝐭 𝐞𝐫 𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐚𝐭𝐬𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐮𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐬? 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐤𝐨𝐨𝐩'𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 – 𝐎𝐤𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔
Staan we aan de vooravond van een staatsschuldencrisis? In de Market Outlook van oktober legt @wmiddelkoop uit waarom centrale banken dollars inruilen voor goud, en waarom de huidige correctie in mijnbouwaandelen juist kansen biedt.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Precious metals heading into FOMC on a weak, cautious note.
The real action starts in 3 1/2 hours…
Cellar Politics® retweeted
🚨 “Oneerlijk en juridisch twijfelachtig.”
Dat zei @paulbuitink tegen Bloomberg over het box 3-voorstel om aandelen vanaf 2028 pas bij verkoop te belasten, maar goud en crypto jaarlijks over papieren winst.
Wij hebben bezwaar ingediend bij de Raad van State.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Will Gold Hold or Fold Wee Below $4K?
Welcome to FOMC day, where the markets traditionally move... swing with great volatility.
Gold and silver prices are near key technical support areas. Higher interest rates are anticipated, the question now is, how much more of the hikes left to price into the market, how much will rates rise?
Cellar Politics® retweeted
#Commodities - European morning comment
#CrudeOil trades higher amid reports of renewed US warnings of military strikes that could derail tentative diplomatic efforts that calmed the market on Tuesday. With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated. Ultimately, both Washington and Tehran need to agree on the way forward and that road remains elusive for now, and until credible signs of de-escalation emerge, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with a substantial risk premium embedded in prices. Focus on EIA's weekly report, Israeli election, and FOMC.
#Gold trades lower after an Asia rebound to USD 4070 ran out stem with rising yields and a firmer dollar ahead of today's important FOMC meeting weighing on prices. Having rebounded from key technical support around USD 3,970, the tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, with bulls taking some comfort from the latest recovery and the market's ability to defend this important level. Resistance levels to watch: USD 4070 and 4230.
#Wheat: Futures extended their decline on Tuesday, with the December contract trading near a 3½-month low amid currency-related pressure and a fading Black Sea risk premium. The latest weakness followed reports that Moscow is considering proposals to secure grain shipments through the region, raising hopes of improved export flows and reduced disruption risks. December futures have fallen to around USD 6.11 per bushel, the lowest since July and down 23% from the multi-year high reached only last month.
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Following up on yesterday's post, here is what the 12-month chart looks like for the Yangshan premium, which yesterday hit a RECORD $178 per tonne of copper. That record broke again this morning. This tells us that despite all the macro noise, nothing has changed in the PHYSICAL world.
The Yangshan copper premium is the extra cost paid over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price to import refined copper into China.
The RECORD premium signals a lack of available short-term supply, strong domestic demand and low local warehouse inventories.
China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper, accounting for ~60% of global consumption. This problem is not unique to China, as other major economies around the world also face the same reality when they try to get their hands on copper metal... they have to pay up.
The copper market only wants to react upwards when the physical market globally is tight and shows no signs of easing.
Each year during LME week the world’s leading metals traders come through London. Over the course of the week, a consensus is typically formed on what is the short- to long-term outlook for each metal.
Often the consensus is right, but sometimes it is wrong (e.g last year’s consensus was to be short zinc… and over the past 12 months it has been one of the best performing commodities). This year was probably the first year in a while where a consensus view on copper was not unanimously agreed upon.
The bears talked down data-centre/AI trade demand, saying it won’t meet expectations… while the bulls talk to the shortage of copper supply… no matter the demand outlook. Eitherway, the week ended with ‘risk-off’ selling of equities and commodities.
Copper finished the week at $6.50 per pound… only ~5% below its all-time high. Also by the end of the week, copper cathode premiums into China reached a RECORD high of $158 per tonne (up again this morning to $178 per tonne)… premiums set by @codelco for delivery into Europe were a RECORD $350 per tonne…. And Europe’s biggest copper smelter, @Aurubis_AG, increased its 2027 premium by +10% to a RECORD $347 per tonne.
Also… spot copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) reached a RECORD NEGATIVE $300 per dry tonne of concentrate smelted and 30 cents per payable pound of copper refined (“-300/-30”) last week… and we expect to hear news soon of a RECORD low for next year’s annual TC/RC benchmark. We are hearing the 2027 benchmark may settle around NEGATIVE 150/15 (the previous record is this year’s 0/0)… We will know for sure by the end of CESCO Shanghai Week in mid-November.
The trend of RECORD HIGH copper premiums and RECORD LOW TC/RCs is a CLEAR indicator of imminent shortages in copper supply.
So… to echo the comments made by Max Layton of @Citi on copper, “we view any associated risk off-episodes as good long-term buying opportunities.”
Cellar Politics® retweeted
Amundi Says ‘Worst Is Behind Us’ as Gold Flirts With $4,000
Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, expects a recovery in the gold price to around $4,500 an ounce following a selloff that dragged the metal to a three-month low.
“The worst is behind us,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute. Traders’ positions are light following last week’s retreat, he added, which is “in favor of a rebound in the next weeks.” (Bloomberg)
