
Analyst and Independent commentator on/Horn/international politics and international Affairs #CoffeeHolic/ authentic soul/views my own-
Joined July 2021
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🚨Egypt has officially joind the war in Sudan figthing RSF as this secret Egyptian air base behind Sudan’s drone war emerged
Satellite images, flight records and videos reviewed by The New York Times, as well as interviews with American, European and Arab officials, suggest that for at least six months, advanced military drones based at the Egyptian airstrip have been carrying out strikes in Sudan. Their target is the paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, or R.S.F., which has been battling the Sudanese military for more than 1,000 days.
Egypt, until recently, was mostly a diplomatic player in Sudan. But the drone activity suggests it has entered the fight alongside Sudan’s military...
MY NEW BOOK, COMING SOON | በቅርቡ
📖 የቀይ ባሕር ርትዕ | RED SEA JUSTICE
An exploration of history, international law, and geopolitics surrounding Ethiopia's enduring quest for access to the sea.
A new book examining one of the most consequential questions shaping Ethiopia's past, present, and future.
Coming soon.
MY NEW BOOK, COMING SOON | በቅርቡ
📖 የቀይ ባሕር ርትዕ | RED SEA JUSTICE
An exploration of history, international law, and geopolitics surrounding Ethiopia's enduring quest for access to the sea.
A new book examining one of the most consequential questions shaping Ethiopia's past, present, and future.
Coming soon.
🇦🇪 THE UAE WARNED. EUROPE HESITATED.
The UAE knew the Muslim Brotherhood from firsthand experience and took decisive action. Meanwhile, Brotherhood-linked networks found room to operate across Europe.
Sheikh Abdullah warned the West about extremism years ago.
The UAE’s peace and security are no accident. Vigilance matters.
@amjadt25 @JustHamed_
“I believe that ignoring our calls (by Asmara) will have very, very, very severe consequences.” PM Abiy
As long as the regime in Asmara remains committed to hostility, Ethiopia's peaceful pursuit of sea access through Assab risks remaining a pipe dream. Diplomacy cannot flourish where hostility is state policy.
Potemkin Party's toxic/stale chorus is grotesquely on display again.
In the link below, the official mouthpiece of the regime (Fana Broadcasting Corporation -Arabic) tries to package, in its news item today, the PP's declared war of aggression in fallacious "historical and strategic terms".
1. In the first place, Ethiopia cannot "reclaim ports and maritime route" that it never owned except during its illicit presence in the bogus "Federation" and annexation periods. Annexation and forceful occupation do not confer historical/legal title to the occupying entity. International law 101.
2. The Eritrean people had paid precious sacrifices when their right to decolonization was denied in the 1940s to satisfy overriding geopolitical interests of major powers. As a result, they had to undergo through Africa's longest liberation struggle to achieve their inalienable national rights and human dignity which should not have been denied in the first place.
3. In the event, to deny and denigrate Eritrea's independence constitutes yet another transgression and political blasphemy of the highest order.
teapawt.net/fana_arabic/status/211…
Ethiopia MADE it's own surveillance and attacking drone called Negash Drone. The drone is similar to Russian made Orion E. Now Erhiopoa is armed with drone from five countries making the first national to acquire diverse drone collection.
Eritrean diplomats were expelled from Addis Ababa over security concerns. Now the Eritrean regime wants to return through the African Union. Is this really about diplomacy, or simply a new excuse to return to Addis and continue spying under a different name?
#Eritrea: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Urges AU to Restore Eritrea’s Representation at its Headquarters
(Similar Letter Sent to UNECA)
*"... The decision of the Ethiopian Government - to expel Eritrea's Permanent Representative and the entire diplomatic staff assigned to participate in the AU - constitutes a grave violation of the Constitutive Act; and, the Headquarters Agreement between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the African Union...".
*"... In light of the foregoing, Eritrea urges the policy organs of the AU to take immediate corrective measures to restore Eritrea's rightful representation at the Headquarters of the Union to ensure its full participation in the activities of the Union as a sovereign and equal member, in strict adherence to the Constitutive Act; the Headquarters Agreement; and, the General Convention".
(The Letter also underlines that Ethiopia had in fact closed, without any formal announcement, its Embassy in Eritrea much earlier on 8 August 2026).
shabait.com/2026/10/15/eritr…
I can understand the euphoria gripping the Asmara regime and its supporters over Marco Rubio’s statement. After all, when you find yourself trapped in a crisis of your own making, even a few reassuring words from Washington can feel like a fire extinguisher.
But here is the bitter irony; Asmara may have created the very strategic nightmare it now desperately seeks protection from. Eritrean forces have invaded Ethiopian territory and by that the regime has potentially handed Ethiopia grounds to invoke its legitimate right of self-defence.
No statement from Washington can erase an armed incursion or its legal consequences. You cannot light the fuse, create the crisis, and then celebrate diplomatic reassurance as a strategic victory.
The myth of Eritrea’s military invincibility has been inflated to almost comical proportions. We are being asked to believe that an army constrained by ageing equipment, limited resources and a narrow economic base represents an insurmountable military challenge to Ethiopia. That is not serious military analysis.
Capturing Asmara/Assab may be the easier part for the ENDF. Eritrea has ~350,000 active troops but an ageing arsenal: ~148 tanks and ~20 aircraft. The harder task is holding it. Resistance and outside powers could turn a quick victory into a devastating regional war.
UPDATE: PM Abiy held telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State @marcorubio on key bilateral, regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest.
Despite the focus was on ENDF/TPF advancement in Tigray, but the role of Tigrayian people in this campegn was immense.
INTELBRIEF / Tigray Update
14 October 2026
Eritrean Defense Forces conducted a limited conventional penetration into northern Tigray in the first ten days of October, advancing along the Zalambessa–Adigrat corridor in support of TDF elements of the Tsimdo coalition. The columns, assessed in the low thousands, moved south of the border under their own flags before withdrawing under ENDF drone pressure as federal forces closed on Zalambessa. By 13 October Ethiopian units held the Ethiopian side of the crossing; Eritrean forces are reported entrenched immediately north of it. The episode is the first confirmed, visible EDF conventional presence inside Ethiopia since the Tsimdo offensive began, distinct from earlier proxy support.
- Ethiopian officials have privately described the EDF presence as one mechanized division plus three infantry divisions, each roughly 1,500 strong. A separate foreign security source placed the total at 5,000–8,000 at peak.
- Movement was not a single thrust. Residents and monitors reported columns entering via Zalambessa, establishing temporary positions at the government college in Fatsi and on the height of Fiya Qeshi (Gulomakeda), then pushing south through Adigrat toward Idaga Hamus. One Adigrat resident counted approximately 40 trucks moving south. Uniforms were described as distinctly Eritrean.
- ENDF drone strikes hit withdrawing Eritrean vehicles near Gadua, north of Adigrat, on 7 October. Additional strikes on Eritrean military vehicles near Adigrat on 7–8 October as the columns pulled back. Explosions were heard overnight north of Adigrat.
- Withdrawal timing is specific: Eritrean units left Fatsi positions on 11 October; The main body withdrawing through Zalambessa into Eritrea on 12 October. ENDF advanced the 23 miles from Adigrat to Zalambessa on 11–12 October with limited resistance, shelling Fatsi for an hour on the 12th before occupying it.
- As of 13 October, Eritrean forces entrenched on the Eritrean side of the border immediately north of Zalambessa.
- Ethiopia’s letter to the Security Council (Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos) invoked Article 51 and stated that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 km inside Tigray. Eritrea’s reply (Foreign Minister Osman Saleh) called the accusation a “declaration of war,” requested Chapter VII deterrent measures, and cited an alleged statement by Ethiopia’s deputy chief of staff that the ultimate objective of the Tigray campaign was Assab.
- Satellite imagery analysis circulating among monitors has been used to confirm drone strikes on Eritrean military positions inside Tigray; the imagery has not been publicly released in full.
- Diplomats in Addis Ababa held multiple meetings with Ethiopian leaders, including the prime minister, on 12–13 October specifically urging restraint and no cross-border operations into Eritrea.










