Coachs Edge

One of the biggest problems with sports bettors today is that too many of you have absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of VARIANCE. Hilarious when someone says “I’m on a 5-0 win streak”😂 You win three days in a row and suddenly think you’ve figured out sports betting. You lose two days in a row and think the handicapper you’re following doesn’t know what he’s doing. BOTH ARE RIDICULOUS WAYS TO EVALUATE RESULTS. Let me teach you something. VARIANCE is the natural fluctuation in results that occurs even when you’re making mathematically sound decisions. You can make the RIGHT bet and lose. You can make a TERRIBLE bet and win. That’s sports betting. A handicapper going 8-2 over a weekend doesn’t automatically make him a genius. And going 2-8 doesn’t automatically make him incompetent. TEN BETS IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. And this is EXACTLY why I prefer LONG-TERM MEMBERSHIPS over selling day passes or weekend passes. How can you possibly understand the true value of someone’s work by following them for 48 hours? YOU CAN’T. I prefer people follow my selections for AT LEAST A MONTH so they can begin understanding my approach across different sports, betting markets, winning streaks, and losing streaks. And even a month isn’t enough to establish someone’s true long-term performance. Now look at my reported numbers. Last 1,133 days: +6,708.03 UNITS 5,365 WINS – 2,187 LOSSES 71.04% WINNING PERCENTAGE That’s 7,552 graded selections across MORE THAN THREE YEARS. THAT’S A LARGE SAMPLE SIZE. Not three winning days. Not a hot weekend. Not somebody posting five winning tickets on Twitter. YEARS OF RESULTS. And understand something else. A winning percentage alone doesn’t tell the whole story. The odds, units, ROI, and consistency of the record matter too. I’ve been in this industry for 21 YEARS, and one of the biggest lessons I’ve learned is that you cannot evaluate a betting strategy based on a handful of outcomes. Some of you need to stop reacting emotionally to every win and loss and start understanding the mathematics behind long-term performance. STOP JUDGING A HANDICAPPER BY ONE DAY. STOP THINKING EVERY LOSING STREAK MEANS SOMETHING IS BROKEN. START UNDERSTANDING VARIANCE, SAMPLE SIZE, AND LONG-TERM RESULTS. Nobody wins every day. Nobody eliminates risk. But if you’re going to evaluate someone, evaluate the FULL BODY OF WORK.