AI, semiconductor & quantum research for investors Intel | Foundry | Memory | Advanced Packaging Founder, Roaring Fork Research

Ohio
Joined October 2024
๐Ÿงต The part of Intel's foundry strategy most investors will never talk about. $INTC just opened a new 107,000 sq ft photomask facility with a Class 1 cleanroom. At first glance, that sounds boring. It isn't. Photomasks are essentially the templates used to print transistor patterns onto wafers. As nodes get smaller, the masks become dramatically more complex and expensive. This facility is being built to support Intel's future roadmap, including 18A, 18A-P, and eventually 14A. Here's the part I think matters. Advanced EUV systems are incredibly powerful, but the masks don't last forever. Over time they degrade, get damaged, and need to be replaced. If you can't replace them quickly, production slows. That means a mask shop isn't just manufacturing infrastructure. It's production insurance. Intel also has an advantage that doesn't get discussed enough. Through IMS Nanofabrication, Intel is the only major chipmaker that owns the company building the world's leading multi-beam mask writers. Instead of writing masks with a single electron beam, IMS systems use over 262,000 beams simultaneously. Faster mask creation. Higher throughput. Less risk of becoming a bottleneck. Most investors are focused on foundry customers, yield numbers, and whether Intel can win share from TSMC. Those things matter. But none of it works without the infrastructure behind it. This looks like another piece of Intel quietly building the ecosystem needed to support advanced manufacturing on U.S. soil. The market is watching the fabs. Intel is investing in everything that keeps the fabs running.
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Driver over 770 miles/ 1250 kilometers today. Nebraska is boring very boring on the freeway. That Nebraska gas station sums it up.
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In 30 minutes we will hit 1000 miles today. Or 1600 kilometers. Long day tired of being in car
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์†Œ๋ฒ„๋ฆฐ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ๋งˆ์ผ“ ๋ชจ๋‹๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘ 2026-10-28 (์ˆ˜) โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€ 1. AI ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์—์ด์…˜ ๋ฒ„๋ธ” ๊ฒฝ๊ณ  ๋ฐ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ ์ž๋ณธ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์••๋ฐ• (AI Bubble Deflation & Capital Calls) ์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ AI ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ธฐ์—… ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ํญ๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์•ฝ 4,800์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ AI ๊ฑฐํ’ˆ์ด ๋ถ•๊ดดํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ถ„์„์ด ์ œ๊ธฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์ธ๋ฒ ์ŠคํŒ…). ์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ์€ S-1 ์„œ๋ฅ˜๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฒœ๋ฌธํ•™์  ์ ์ž ๊ตฌ์กฐ(์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ 800์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)์™€ 8,000์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ง€์ถœ ์•ฝ์ •์„ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ (FT), ์•„๋งˆ์กด ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์€ ์ง์›๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ AI ๋„๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ ์‹œ ๋น„์šฉ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ผ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ง€์‹œ(tokenmaxxing)ํ•˜๋Š” ๋“ฑ AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์œ ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ์••๋ฐ•์ด ์ˆ˜๋ฉด ์œ„๋กœ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (CNBC). ๋ฉ”ํƒ€์˜ 950์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ž๋ณธ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋„ AI ํˆฌ์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด์˜ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ฐฉ์ฆํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2. ์‹ค๋ฌผ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋‘”ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„ ๋ฐ ์‹ ์šฉ ๊ฒฝ์ƒ‰ ์œ„ํ—˜ (Macro Slowdown & Credit Strains) ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ 9์›” ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผํƒ ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ฐ„ ์ฃผํƒ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ฃผํƒ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๋‘”ํ™”๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์ธ๋ฒ ์ŠคํŒ…). ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์žฌ์ •์  ์–ด๋ ค์›€์— ์ฒ˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด 73๋งŒ 8์ฒœ์—ฌ ๊ฐœ๋กœ 20๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ธฐ์—… ๋„์‚ฐ ๊ณตํฌ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (๊ฐ€๋””์–ธ). ๋Œ€์ฒด ํˆฌ์ž ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋„์ด์ฒด๋ฐฉํฌ ์‚ฐํ•˜ DWS๊ฐ€ ํ”Œ๋ž˜๊ทธ์‹ญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ํŽ€๋“œ์˜ ํ™˜๋งค ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด 10%๋งŒ ์ง€๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ƒ์—…์šฉ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (FT). 3. ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋Œ€์ฒดํˆฌ์ž ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ ์šฉ ๊ท ์—ด ์‹ฌํ™” (Corporate Distress) ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋กœ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ๊ฐ€ AI ์ „ํ™˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด 6๋งŒ ๋ช…์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ช…์˜ˆํ‡ด์ง(buyout)์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ–ˆ๊ณ  (๊ฐ€๋””์–ธ), ๋ณด์ž‰์€ ์ƒ์šฉ๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ง€์—ฐ ๋ฐ ๋…ธ์กฐ ํŒŒ์—… ์—ฌํŒŒ๋กœ 2027๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ 737 ๋งฅ์Šค ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜€ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (CNBC). ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ค์  ์••๋ฐ•์„ ๋ฐ›๋˜ ์ ฏ๋ธ”๋ฃจ(JetBlue)๋Š” ์ฑ„๊ถŒ๋‹จ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์กฐ์ •์— ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ํ„ด์–ด๋ผ์šด๋“œ ๊ณ„ํš ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋กœ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ(19% ์ƒ์Šน)ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทน์‹ฌํ•œ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์„ ์—ฐ์ถœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (๋ธ”๋ฃธ๋ฒ„๊ทธยท๋งˆ์ผ“์›Œ์น˜). 4. ์ค‘๋™ ์™ธ๊ต ํšŒ๋‹ด๊ณผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ํ…์…˜ ์ง€์† (Mideast Geopolitics) ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ์ „ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ๋‹น์žฅ ์ด๋ž€ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ์„ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‰˜์•™์Šค์˜ ๋ฐœ์–ธ์„ ๋‚ด๋†“๊ณ , ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด ๋“ฑ ์ฃผ๋ณ€๊ตญ ์ค‘์žฌ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์ด ์ด์–ด์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ๊ตญ์ œ ์œ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝ(-1.5%)ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ˆจ ๊ณ ๋ฅด๊ธฐ์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‰ด์Šคยท์ธ๋ฒ ์ŠคํŒ…). ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์˜๊ตญ ๊ณต๊ตฐ๊ธฐ์ง€ ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ ๋ฏธ์ˆ˜ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์˜ ๋ฐฐํ›„๋กœ ์ด๋ž€์ด ์ง€๋ชฉ๋˜๊ณ  (WSJ), ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋””์•„๋ผ๋น„์•„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ›„ํ‹ฐ ๋ฐ˜๊ตฐ์˜ ๋“œ๋ก  ๋ฐ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ด ์ง€์†๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ธด์žฅ๊ฐ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฟ ๋ฐ”์˜ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋‚œ๋„ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์˜ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ์„ ๋”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (WSJ). 5. ํ•œ๊ตญ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ ์–‘๊ทนํ™” ๋ฐ ๋ถ€์‹ค ์œ„ํ—˜ (Korea Polarization & Default Risks) ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฃผ์‹ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ฃผ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์— ๋™์กฐํ•˜๋ฉฐ ํฐ ํญ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ(^KS11 3.09%)ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ ์šฐ๋ ค๋Š” ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์—…์€ํ–‰์˜ ์ค‘์†Œ๊ธฐ์—… ์—ฐ์ฒด์œจ์ด 15๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜(1%๋Œ€)๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ณ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”์˜ ์—ฌํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์‹œํ™”๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ  (์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‰ด์Šค), ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ํ–‰์€ AI ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด์ด ๊บพ์ผ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ด ์ตœ๋Œ€ 1,000์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (๋งค๊ฒฝ). ์ž์‚ฐ ์ƒยทํ•˜์œ„ 20%์˜ ์ฃผํƒ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๊ฐ€ 290๋ฐฐ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€์น˜๋กœ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๋“ฑ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์–‘๊ทนํ™”๋„ ๊ทน์‹ฌํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค (์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‰ด์Šค). โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€ "๊ธฐ๋ณธ๊ฐ’์€ No Action. ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ๋ฐ”๋€Œ๋ฉด ์›€์ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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Steven Martin retweeted
Big day for some of my top holdings. $NBIS +11%, $AAOI +7%, $CRDO +11%. Everything was oversold so the bounce isnโ€™t overly surprising. The real question is whether this is the start of another run or a FOMO crushing dead cat bounce. Either way, waiting for FOMC and Hyper ERโ€™s.
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Yes heading to Wisconsin tomorrow then to Ohio for work Thursday
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๐—ž๐—˜๐—˜๐—Ÿ ๐——๐—”๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—ฌ | ๐—ข๐—–๐—ง๐—ข๐—•๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿณ, ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐— ๐—ฌ ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—— I still really like what $KEEL is building. The company has access to a lot of power, and that matters as AI data centers compete for electricity. But I keep coming back to the same question. Where are the signed leases? Keel has roughly 2.2 GW in its development pipeline. That is potential capacity, not operating data centers. At $2.75 million per MW annually, the full pipeline represents nearly $6 billion in potential yearly revenue. That is a high end illustration. Actual revenue depends on the type lease. The opportunity is large. Keel still has to prove it can turn that opportunity into revenue. ๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—ง๐—˜ ๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—š๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ฆ Allentown received conditional approval in October for a proposed 75 to 80 MW data center. Local reporting indicates Keel could operate the facility for an unnamed technology tenant. No signed lease or financial terms have been released yet. Moses Lake continues moving forward. PowerSecure announced a backup power agreement in September, and Vertiv equipment deliveries have advanced. Management has previously targeted initial capacity in the first half of 2027. Sharon and Panther Creek remain important development sites, with potential service dates around la ๐—–๐—จ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ข๐— ๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—ก๐—˜๐—š๐—ข๐—ง๐—œ๐—”๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก๐—ฆ This is what interests me most. During the Q2 earnings call, CEO Ben Gagnon said multiple prospective customers were negotiating for each of Keelโ€™s three priority sites. He also stated that some customers were interested in more than one location. A customer interested in several sites could support a much larger agreement than a single location. There is also speculation about Amazon becoming a customer. I have not seen confirmation of an Amazon agreement, and I still watching that rumor. I would rather focus on what management has stated and I am excited for the earnings report to hear more updates. ๐—œ๐—ก๐—ฆ๐—œ๐——๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—•๐—จ๐—ฌ๐—œ๐—ก๐—š CEO Ben Gagnon purchased additional shares in August. The COO also bought shares. I like seeing management invest its own money. It shows confidence, but it does not guarantee the stock will recover. ๐—ช๐—›๐—”๐—ง ๐—œ๐—ฆ ๐—•๐—ข๐—ง๐—›๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—ก๐—š ๐— ๐—˜ Management previously targeted three leases before the end of 2026. During the Q2 call, management discussed active negotiations but did not clearly reaffirm that deadline. I would rather see Keel sign good contracts than rush into bad ones. But investors deserve an update. Keel reported approximately $819 million in liquidity in August. That gives the company flexibility, but building data centers is expensive. I want to know how much cash remains and how much construction will cost before meaningful revenue begins. ๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—–๐—˜ ๐—”๐—–๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก KEEL closed Monday at approximately $2.18. The stock has been under pressure, with previously reported short interest around 19% of the float. A signed lease could change sentiment quickly. But high short interest alone is not a reason to buy. The business still has to deliver. ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—˜๐— ๐—•๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐Ÿฑ Keel reports Q3 earnings before the market opens on November 5. I want answers to four questions. Have any customer agreements been signed? Are the three original lease targets still realistic for 2026? Are Moses Lake, Sharon and Panther Creek still on schedule? How much cash will construction require before meaningful revenue begins? Those answers matter more to me than another presentation about the 2.2 GW pipeline. ๐—•๐—ข๐—ง๐—ง๐—ข๐—  ๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜ I have not changed my view of Keelโ€™s potential. The power is valuable. The locations matter. The opportunity is large. Allentownโ€™s approval and Moses Lakeโ€™s progress give me reasons to keep watching. Multiple customers negotiating across the three priority sites is encouraging I want signed leases and customers.
๐Ÿค– Made with AI
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Being ready might be a stretch they would need to prepare the building.
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This is a big factor. There is no ai crash $NBIS on the larger end to $KEEL on the smaller end will be needed for infrastructure ready to go or quickly ready to go!
Posted takeaways of Anthropic's S-1 on my substack. This is a very detailed S-1 with a lot of risk factors and specific languages. Key takeaways: > Anthropic has amassed massive long-term commitments totaling hundreds of billions of dollars across major partners (including non-cancelable agreements with Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom, and others), roughly 75% of which are non-cancelable. Although, deals with Nscale and Lambda may be cancelled on failure of service. > NRR stands at approximately 900%. Over 50% of Fortune 500 companies are customers generating at least $100,000 in TTM revenue. > Companies sees compute availability limited for the foreseeable future. > Expect use of short-term compute to increase in the near term and to in turn compress their operating margin and Adjusted Operating Margin as a result. Read more with the link in replies ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Steven Martin retweeted
์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ์–‘ ์‹œ์žฅ ํž˜์ฐจ๊ฒŒ ์˜ค๋ฅด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋„ค์š”.
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Steven Martin retweeted
Considering LEAP Options ? Check out this must read article from @EdgeReport91 ๐Ÿ‘‡
Most options traders wing LEAPS and get crushed by theta. I treat them like core equity positions. Before I touch an option chain, I run every setup through a strict 5-step checklist. Here is the exact framework ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
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Steven Martin retweeted
Curiosity might be the most underrated wealth skill. Learn how money works, how businesses grow and how value is created. The more you understand the game, the more confidently you can play it for decades.
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Steven Martin retweeted
I'm an ASL interpreter by day. My job is taking a message in one language and delivering it in another without losing the meaning. So here's Wall Street, interpreted: Spend less than you make.โ€จBuy the index.โ€จKeep buying.โ€จDon't touch it. Simple to say. The hardest part is being relentlessly consistent. What would you add?
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โ€œVOO and chill.โ€ I checked my portfolio 47 times today. I have no intention of selling for 20+ years. The VOO part is easy. Working on the chill. Good night fam ๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿค‘๐ŸคŸ๐Ÿป
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$INTC almost quadrupled in six months. Then it gave back 35.65% ๐Ÿ“‰ Still up 145.80% this year. Intel started 2026 at $36.90, ran all the way to $140.94 in June, and trades at $90.70 today. ๐Ÿ”ด Last time it reported, it fell 7.89% the next day. It reports again Thursday. Is this a healthy pullback or the end of the run?
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Steven Martin retweeted
$RES triangle is breaking out ๐Ÿ‘€ RPC Inc, oilfield services for oil and gas producers in the US. ๐Ÿ”น Lower highs from $6.73 and higher lows from $5.58 squeezed it into a triangle ๐Ÿ”น Today it pushed over the top line and hit $6.49 ๐Ÿ”น It needs a daily close over $6.41 to lock it in ๐Ÿ“Š Q2 revenue $460.9M (+9.5%), adjusted EPS $0.08 vs $0.04 expected, net income $12.1M vs $0.9M in Q1 ๐Ÿ’ฐ Adjusted EBITDA $66.0M (+23.3% sequentially), margin up 250 bps to 14.3% ๐Ÿ“ˆ $179.5M of cash with no borrowings on the revolver, and a dividend yield of about 2.5% โš ๏ธ Oil price volatility keeps management cautious, and Q3 results come Thursday, Oct 29 before the open โœ… Confirm: daily close over $6.41 ๐ŸŸข TP1 $6.73 (+5.0%) โ€ข TP2 $7.41 (+15.6%) โ€ข TP3 $8.06 (+25.7%) โ›” Invalid: daily close under $6.31 (โˆ’1.6%) Risk from the live $6.45 to Invalid is about 2.2%, and TP1 pays about 2.0x. Please respect your SL level ๐Ÿ™
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Steven Martin retweeted
Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 employees while spending billions on AI. When interest rates stay high, companies become more cautious about spending. Hiring slows, budgets tighten and job security becomes less certain. And that creates a vicious cycle: workers worry about losing their jobs, so they spend less. Businesses then face weaker demand, making them even more cautious about hiring and investing. High interest rates donโ€™t just make money more expensive. They can make an entire economy more fearful. Image source: hcamag.com
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Driving on snowy road in October. Backcountry skiers already skiing off independence pass. @KeystoneMtn should be opening soon!
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Itโ€™s fantastic:)) I love that road
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