Kyro

$COIN posted $719M of net income, but $715M of that was gains on the crypto it holds, so adjusted net income was just $78M. Revenue of $1.22B fell 35% from a year ago and came in a hair under estimates. The bright spot is prediction markets passing a $200M annualized run rate, and shares are only down about 1% after hours.

$AMZN missed on EPS at $1.89 vs $1.96 expected, and revenue of $201.9B came in a hair light. AWS was the bright spot, up 39% to $46.0B, but a Q4 operating income guide of $28.5B to $33.5B against roughly $33B expected has the stock down around 10% after hours. Second night in a row a megacap gets sold for the spending, not the growth.

Core PCE came in right on expectations at 3.1% year over year, with headline at 3.6%. The surprise was growth, with Q3 GDP running at a 3.4% annualized pace, up from 2.2% in Q2. Strong growth with inflation stuck well above 2% is exactly what yesterday's two hawkish dissenters were worried about. $SPY $TLT

Long bonds are what you buy so you can sleep at night. $10k in $TLT in August 2020 is worth about $5.7k today, dividends included. At the worst point it was down 48%. If a tech stock did that, nobody would ever call it safe again.

$GOOGL just doubled Google Cloud revenue to $30.7B, and the stock still fell about 7% after hours. Total revenue of $127.58B came in a touch under estimates, GAAP EPS of $2.12 took an $8.7B hit from equity losses, and $51.4B of quarterly capex pushed free cash flow negative. Tonight the market is looking at the spend, not the growth.

$MSFT just put up a clean beat, with revenue of $92.28B vs $90.63B expected and Azure up 48% ex-FX. The surprise is capex at $39.4B, well under the roughly $46B the Street had penciled in. More cloud growth on less spend is exactly what the AI capex worriers wanted to see, and shares are up about 5% after hours.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% as expected, but the 10-2 vote is the story. Cook and Hammack both wanted another hike today, and the market now prices about 85% odds of one in December. $SPY $TLT

The "just buy the S&P, you don't need anything else" crowd had a decent year. $SPY up 14%. Taiwan is up 69%. Korea is up 62%. Even Japan beat it. Home bias feels safe right up until you check what you missed.

$HOOD missed on both lines tonight, with adjusted EPS of $0.51 vs $0.55 expected and revenue of $1.42B vs $1.43B. Revenue still grew 12%, but shares are down about 5% after hours. When the bar keeps rising, a near miss reads like a real one.

$V beat on revenue by about $10M on a $12B quarter, which is basically in line. EPS of $3.48 vs $3.44 and 74.2B processed transactions look solid, but the stock is slipping after hours anyway. At this size, matching the bar isn't the same as clearing it.