Lumentum’s 200G EML lasers are still selling hard even after the price increases. Classic case of volume and price both rising, not enough supply, and orders already booked out to 2028. Pricing moved up. Used to be $14–15, then $16, and long-term contracts are now around $18. Spot and urgent orders are going for 2–3x the contract price. Customers aren’t picking and choosing anymore, they’re just trying to secure supply. The price hikes didn’t slow demand, which shows how tight the gap is. 200G EML capacity is basically spoken for through 2028. $LITE’s expansion plans got more aggressive after the FCC’s 65% BOM rule. They’re expecting total laser chip shipments of about 140 million in 2026, and at least 50% growth in 2027. On mix, 200G EML is roughly 20–25% of shipments in 2026, rising to about 40% in 2027 — around 100 million units, plus another 150 million 100G EMLs. AI data center buildouts are the main driver. Overall optical component orders are already booked through 2029. The CEO basically said they’re expanding as hard as they can and still can’t keep up with customer demand. Two big Japanese players have also stopped 100G EML and shifted capacity over to 200G. One contrast that stands out: EML demand is running at about 140% of capacity, while silicon photonics demand hasn’t even filled capacity yet. EML orders can lock in for years. Silicon photonics mostly only has a few months of visibility. The intensity is pretty different. InP substrates are also moving from 3-inch to 6-inch, which means more laser chips per wafer. That’s one of the key factors for whether EML capacity can actually scale smoothly from here.