Macroeconomist|Triangulating Data|@nberpubs Board|Data Junkie|Policy Wonk|my own views| #Econ101 #SecretLivesOfEconomists

Earth
Joined November 2011
Indeed. A critical input to chip manufacturing.
Helium shortages going to be a big problem ...
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At the risk of angering a few folks, I vehemently disagree about the old rules not applying in this economy. When my career began I had no idea where it would or could go. I was curious & rigorously continued my education to improve my skills. Be agile & solve problems. 1/n
Most career advice comes from an economy that no longer exists. So what still works? What should people DO? These are the questions behind my new show, Best of Luck! Every week, I sit down with people who have built careers that have gone sideways, forwards, backwards, and forwards again. Each guest tells their story, swaps career advice, interviews for a job (!), and together, we try to understand the economy we're actually living AND working in.
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The advice I would give today is the following: 1. Be curious 2. Continuously learn 3. Continuously hone communication skills 4. Seek constructive feedback 5. Solve problems and take on responsibility 6. Acknowledge and learn from mistakes 7. Be agile AI doesn’t change this
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It is not economy dependent. Every generation for the past 200+ years experienced an unprecedented level of change. Yes, Virginia, entropy really does increase. Read Claude Shannon’s 1948 paper “A Mathematical Theory of Communication”
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Constance L Hunter retweeted
Fascinating geopolitical discussion with @anna_rosenberg & @ConstanceHunter moderated by Tani Fukui. « Welcome to a « low-trust » anarchic multipolar world » #NABE2026
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One might look at this and say, there is no shortage of irony. AI and agentics can augment the role non-routine tasks and EA performs. But, the routine tasks are not where the rubber meets the road, it is the non-routine tasks that require judgment, discretion and grit.
Anthropic is offering a 145k salary for a personal assistant in London. Responsibilities include: "Scheduling and managing calendars for leader(s) and their organization" "Building and maintaining organizational systems for tracking and managing inbound requests" "Managing the leader's inbox and communications with precise attention to detail" "Handling travel logistics" Somebody should really build some sort of tech tool that can handle this stuff autonomously.
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Constance L Hunter retweeted
If you want to get ahead, just be easy to work with. Show up on time. Do what you said you'd do. Bring solutions, not problems. Never create drama. Be responsive. Be emotionally consistent. Be kind. People will always want to support someone who just makes their life easier.
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The comments are priceless.
A surprising new study finds that people who sleep near their dogs don’t experience disrupted sleep. If anything, the University of Toronto researchers discovered, we humans are the ones disturbing our dogs’ sleep. nbcnews.com/health/health-ne…
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That’s a wrap on Thursday.
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The hard liners in Iran are certainly in favor of escalating. But the more moderate members of the government would like to negotiate. Regaining control of the SoH was a critical action for the U.S. to take. My fear has been that this only ends in escalation. @JavierBlas
COLUMN: If you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear President Trump has the advantage. Problem is the oil market thinks Trump has been so successful that Iran would have no other option but to escalate militarily. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Very often when I query AI (Claude mostly) on medical issues it pushes me toward services consumption. This is one example of how AI is pointed in this direction. @TheStalwart would be curious if you see more research on this nudge.
The Blue Cross/Blue Shield Association says that AI is already driving *up* healthcare costs, as hospitals use the technology to find instances where they can bill more for the same level of care. bcbs.com/about-us/associatio…
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.@robin_j_brooks makes a great point with these graphs and his post about the market believing the U.S. abdicates is influence in Asia letting China be the victor with the spoils, to coin a phrase. He’s not a believer. Question is do you buy, sell, or hold Treasuries here?
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Replying to @EdMorrissey
@EdMorrissey Wordle 1,922 3/6 ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Didn’t beat the bot…. but still pleased.
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Great point @johnarnold
2008 was an oil crisis. 2026 is a refining crisis. 2008 (peak) Oil = $147 Diesel = $4.76 retail Gasoline = $4.16 retail Today Oil = $95 Diesel = $6.53 retail Gasoline = $4.52 retail
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And this folks is why @biancoresearch is a legend.
In December 1988, federal agents arrested 25-year-old Kevin Mitnick for stealing software from Digital Equipment. According to Mitnick's memoir, the prosecutor told the magistrate, "He can whistle into a telephone modem and launch a nuclear missile from NORAD." Three judges denied him bail and ordered him held in solitary confinement, where he stayed for eight months, according to Forbes. No human can produce a modem handshake with his mouth. And NORAD does not launch anything. It watches launch orders travel as authenticated messages. Firing requires two officers turning keys at the same moment, set too far apart for one person to reach both. So why did the court believe it? Into the 1970s, whistling into a payphone really did give you control of the long-distance network. This is why a toy whistle that came as a prize in boxes of Cap'n Crunch became hacker folklore, and how the phone hacker John Draper got the nickname Captain Crunch. The prosecutor took that real capability and assumed it carried over. Whistling to route a free long-distance call in 1975 became whistling at a modem to command nuclear weapons in 1988. Extrapolating from something true is how you persuade intelligent, serious people of something that cannot happen. Notice also what nobody in that courtroom feared. Mitnick's actual talent was calling a phone company employee, sounding like a colleague, and convincing them to hand over a critical password. Why retell this story? Because the ability to end humanity imagined for 25-year-old Kevin Mitnick in 1988 sounds eerily like what 27-year-old researcher Jacob Coxon is describing in 2026. On September 8, Coxon resigned from Anthropic and posted neither company is acting responsibly, and that they are "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." He told NBC's Meet the Press that AI could soon acquire "superhuman hacking capabilities, very superhuman abilities to create novel bioweapons and also abilities to control, say, autonomous drones or all the robots that are currently being built, very rapidly." Robots and autonomous drones under the control of superhuman machine intelligence. That is not an analogy to the Terminator films; it is the plot. And a young Mitnick ending the world through a NORAD modem is the plot of the 1983 movie "War Games," starring Matthew Broderick and Ally Sheedy. It had been in theaters for five years by the time that magistrate heard the argument. The evidence Coxon and others point to is the Hugging Face attack. In July, OpenAI models broke out of a testing environment and hacked Hugging Face, the open-source model repository. More than 1,200 agents coordinated on an improvised message board, and over 700 took part in the attack. It took OpenAI about a week to notice. Those facts are real, and they sound bad. Here is the rest of it. This happened during a security test. OpenAI was running the models through a set of hacking puzzles, hundreds of them, designed to measure how good the models are at breaking into software. The models were told to hack things. OpenAI also switched off many of the usual safety restraints, because the point of the exercise was to see how far the models would go. The test environment was walled off from the internet with one exception. The models needed to download software to solve the puzzles, so they were allowed to reach the service that hands out those downloads. They left that door open on purpose, and the safety restraints were already off. The models found that flaw and walked out. They broke into Hugging Face to cheat on a test. That is the AI equivalent of breaking into the registrar's office to change a grade. Which is also what Matthew Broderick did in "War Games." Whistling was never the problem Both stories start from something true. Whistling into a phone network in the 1970s worked. AI agents really did break out of a sandbox and hack a company. Both are real problems. And both problems, coupled with cinematic imagery, are what persuade serious people. The invention comes next, when the true thing gets stretched across a gap it cannot cross. From routing a free phone call to commanding nuclear weapons via a modem. From cheating on a test to seizing the drones and the robots to end a species. The magistrate in 1988 had every reason to believe he was acting responsibly. A credentialed expert told him the danger was real, and a movie had already shown him what it looked like. So, a 25-year-old spent eight months in a box for something that could not happen. The same is likely true now. Credentialed experts say there is a risk. So, government officials, like magistrates a generation before, are acting accordingly. They may be right that something is coming. But it will almost certainly look nothing like the trailer for a Terminator movie. In Mitnick's case the danger was a polite phone call, not a whistle into a payphone. The AI version is likely to be just as unglamorous, already underway, and centered on work rather than weapons. What it does to employment matters enormously. It is not an extinction-level event.
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Constance L Hunter retweeted
I read @DarioAmodei's essay calling on the labs to pace the frontier. @sama agreed. The frontier will move at whatever speed it moves. The rest of the world will not slow down. Our job in the cybersecurity community is to make sure it moves securely and safely. Here’s what I see from the front lines: 1. The unit of threat is no longer the hacker. It's an autonomous campaign. I call it the Agent-state. We see coordinated AI agents executing attack campaigns at machine speed. 2. Sophistication is dead as an attribution signal. AI gives every criminal and lone actor elite execution. Identity, infrastructure, and intent tell you who's behind an attack. Skill doesn't. 3. Runtime is the control point. Endpoints, cloud workloads, and SaaS are the battleground. Governance documents don't stop an agent in motion. Enforcement at machine speed does. 4. Every AI agent is a privileged identity. Least privilege, short-lived credentials, traceable actions, and a kill switch. Permissions never expand because an agent decides it needs more. 5. Defense has to be autonomous but also bounded. Machine-speed response, tiered by consequence, with humans owning the high-impact calls. 6. Every failed attack should make every defender smarter. Feed what we block back into detection, across customers and models, with privacy intact. This is what CrowdStrike and NVIDIA introduced with SafeMind: an agentic, always improving model and harness protection system built for defenders. 7. The AI industrial base is critical infrastructure: weights, training clusters, APIs. Call it what it is and protect it like it is. Pacing what comes next doesn't secure what's already here. The credible path is to deploy with proof: board-level accountability for AI security, independent external red teaming, incident disclosure, secure defaults, and controls that work in production - not on paper. Anthropic and OpenAI just committed to embedding independent evaluators with employee-level access. CrowdStrike will bring what we see from the front lines to that table. The ability for AI to act must be matched by the ability for defensive AI to stop the breach.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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Yep. This checks out.
Gen X defined: Ages 45-61 Looks 35-40 Will 100% throw hands Doesn't care about your feelings Cusses a lot Will make you cry with words Great work ethic Pragmatic Zero tolerance for stupidity Skeptical of authority Doesn't trust anyone at 1st Extremely loyal friend Figures shit out Most likely your boss Works hard, plays hard No fear Sarcastic as fuck Still listens to the same music Knows lyrics to Rock, Rap & Country Proficient in analog & digital tech Self reliant Adaptable to any environment Just wants to be left alone
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Republicans, the party of big government. If tariffs are so effective at bringing jobs back to America, won’t higher demand for workers raise wages such that this government intervention is unnecessary?
Baier: $5000 for every adult citizen, that's about $1.3 trillion. The critics will say the president is bribing voters and he's bankrupting the country. Vance: Tariffs have generated a lot of revenues. The president is saying, if you keep us in power, then you will share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that we are creating
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The cost of sending $5000 to every adult US citizen is estimated at 1.3 trillion dollars. US tariff revenue was approximately 195 billion dollars in fiscal year 2025. usafacts.org/answers/how-mu… newsweek.com/donald-trump-d… politico.com/news/2026/09/0…
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Well, you were looking at the shiny object called “AI will kill us“ the government is gradually and systematically eroding the census. Read @JedKolko
This proposed change to the 2030 Census is neither random nor a one-off. It is part of a recent pattern of political involvement in Census and the statistical system. Details: xitter.cf/jedkolko/status/209801…
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And that should be *while you were looking…. Not sure if that is my error or autocorrect. 🤷🏽‍♀️
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