Research firm. Trading and Investing since 2006
Joined September 2020
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Sun NoCappin retweeted
FEDWATCH:
“If Huang is cleared or chooses an orderly departure, the stock could stabilize around key support .. near $155. However, if the situation ultimately results in his exit due to a security or export-control violation, the repercussions could extend well beyond $NVDA.”
Sun NoCappin retweeted
JPM: “.. If we were heading into end-cycle dynamics, with .. downward revisions to 2027 earnings, the capitulation process would certainly have further room to run. However, we see this more as an intra-cycle reset .. in the AI supercycle.
.. maintain our S&P target of 8,000.”
Sun NoCappin retweeted
JPM: This week was one of the most consequential of the year. Following major hyperscaler earnings reports last week, Momentum experienced its 2nd +6-sigma unwind day in ~a week, deepening its already steep decline and producing its largest single-month underperformance in more than 40 years at -5.8z.
Mechanical Flows Deallocating. Vol Control Funds selling 72Bill on the day and 117B over the past week via Nomura
Sun NoCappin retweeted
Fourth consecutive day of lousy liquidity conditions visible in DIX. Today was the worst yet. Worst since late 2021, actually.
Sun NoCappin retweeted
PIMCO:
“.. The conventional wisdom seems to be that the data center rhetoric is merely election-year rhetoric, but we would disagree.”
Sun NoCappin retweeted
GOLDMAN SACHS: DEMOCRATIC WINS COULD THREATEN 45% OF US DATA CENTER EXPANSION
Goldman Sachs warns that Democratic victories at state and local levels could trigger temporary data-center construction moratoria.
🔸 45% of planned US data-center capacity could be affected.
🔸 Texas alone accounts for roughly 25% of planned capacity.
🔸 Texas, Georgia and Michigan could introduce restrictions on tax breaks, electricity, water and environmental permits.
However, Goldman expects any moratoria to be short-lived, with political pressure easing over time.
Sun NoCappin retweeted
I’m seeing a lot of October numbers come in on the hedge fund side. It’s been a rough month for a wide range of single-manager funds across credit, equities, commodities, and other asset classes. There’s been a real reshuffling of risk, with some of the worst losses in equities.
It’s worth putting those losses in context. The S&P is down 3.8% from its all-time high over the past month and is still up roughly 10% YTD. A monthly decline of 3.8% along with a 10% YTD return is well within the normal range of how US equities function.
Yes, a lot of single managers have been hit hard by taking on single-stock risk tied directly to AI. But there’s still a massive amount of exposure hiding on the index side.
Given how much exposure is still sitting there, my sense is that a 20% correction today would trigger a lot more margin calls than we’ve seen in past declines of a similar size (like April 2025 etc).