Data driven musings on Fulham FC. Fan account & not affiliated with Fulham FC
Joined August 2020
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New blogpost: Predicting Fulham’s Budget for the 2023 Summer Transfer window.
In which I estimate Fulham's spending capacity for the summer and try to construct a plausible shopping list of potential transfers....
cottageanalytica.com/2023/06…
Thanks for the shout out.
Unfortunately I am dealing with some health issues at the moment, and don't currently have the energy to do the research behind my posts.
I hope to be back in the future once I am better again.
COYW!!!🖤🤍🖤
Chris
Petition for @CottageAnalytic to come back for the remaining games?
@FulhamishPod @MrSammyJames @CottageTactico @FulhamFC @FulhamTransfer
With 8 games played, I thought we are probably approaching a point where the premier league model I have been running has gathered enough data to make some reasonable predictions & observations, so here they are in a thread.
Firstly, the predicted league table:
(1/14)
Carlos Vinícius averages 0.47 non-penalty goals per premier league game for Fulham.
Since the start of last season, Aleksandar Mitrović achieved 0.44 for the same metric...
Thought it worth comparing the results of Opta's 'super-computer' premier league with my own (running on excel in a 4 year old ASUS Vivobook in case you wondered).
The results are pretty similar, we have 9 teams (shown in green) including Fulham (13th) ranked the same.
(1/)
On the plus side, I guess the whole 'doing a Fulham' thing has well and truly been put to bed now...
3
50
4,918
Completely unsustainable over performance...
(again)
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1
27
7,279
This chart uses the Monte Carlo model I built to project the points needed for various league outcomes (Europe qualification, survival, etc) alongside Fulham's actual points (red line) and projected points (dotted line).
Currently forecasts Fulham to finish 13th with 45.8 points
What do we think?
Personally I think there is quite a bit of nuance around the points made, in particular, that there should be significant capacity to strengthen the squad available. But with the current squad, its hard to disagree (xG haters may cringe at this though)
An update to the Monte Carlo simulation of the premier league, following the second round of games.
Fulham still projected for 13th, but underlying metrics are (rapidly) adjusting negatively to performance on the pitch.
(1/2)
This is Fulham's cumulative xG generated over 180 minutes of the season so far (our goal is also marked with a little football).
I have highlighted the bit of the chart when Mitrović was on the pitch.
Here we go again, first update to the pre-season monte carlo simulation of the premier league.
Fulham projected to be 13th and more likely to be involved in the battle for Europe than relegation.
Not sure that reflects what we saw on the pitch today though!
(1/2)
A whopping 2.2xG from Everton in the first half. Fulham still level thanks to some heroic goalkeeping and a helpful referee intervention
Hoping for better in the second half...
An update on the summer transfer budget. I have estimated in various places that Fulham had capacity to increase squad spending by between £40m and £50m a year.
Raul and Bassey both have a similar annual cost (I estimate £7m) so I think £14m of that budget has been spent, so far
The Excel4Soccer tools I was using for Monte Carlo Simulations last season now don't work because 538.com no longer publish team ranking data...
So I have spent the last two evenings building my own model!
Here is the result and the key points...
(1/2)
