Telegram community: @cryptobzzi | Polymarket trader | AI lover | Landing: https://xitter.cf/t.co/bOx7hGe6Af
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Joined March 2024
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You see all day those traders are flexing their Dub partners ref rewards from Polymarket. Yeah tbh rewards became so juicy.
polymarket.com?via=polymarke…
I have the only one question: When I can retire?
🤝 Paid partnership
Did you survive after Brazil election + Serbian PM?
We had many unpredictable cases for retail and whales both yesterday.
Midterms and Israel PM ahead…
First limit order filled
S1 still isn't public, I didn’t see any document today and the market is cooling off a bit.
So the price is going exactly where I wanted it and the thesis hasn't changed. As long as there's no actual delay news, every cent lower is just a better entry.
What do you think, does Anthropic list in 2026 or slip into next year?
Anthropic is about to drop its S1 publicly and Polymarket still can't decide what that means
I've been watching the IPO market for a while. And now I see the market (me too) doesn’t understand a little when this will happen.
Three sources told Yahoo the public S1 could land as soon as this Friday (SEC rules make a confidential filer publish 15 days before the roadshow starts). Bloomberg had marketing starting the week of Nov 9, with the listing aimed before Thanksgiving. Target valuation up to $2T (would beat SpaceX for biggest IPO ever).
But this IPO already slipped, it was supposed to be September (until a researcher quit and a run of safety incidents hit the news). Then October. Now November.
And the draft prospectus: 80b+ in losses in H1 2026, compute commitments that could reach $750B + a risk section saying the models could pose existential risk to humanity. Wall Street is a little bit nervous imho.
But I think Anthropic lists this year. OpenAI pushed its own IPO to 2027 so Anthropic gets the AI IPO spotlight to itself. Btw one investor told Axios the company has simply outgrown private rounds.
But I don't like the actual price at 87c, I would put limit orders at ~84c. Every «AI bubble» headlines or delay rumor shakes out a couple cents and exactly there we can get filled.
Anthropic is about to drop its S1 publicly and Polymarket still can't decide what that means
I've been watching the IPO market for a while. And now I see the market (me too) doesn’t understand a little when this will happen.
Three sources told Yahoo the public S1 could land as soon as this Friday (SEC rules make a confidential filer publish 15 days before the roadshow starts). Bloomberg had marketing starting the week of Nov 9, with the listing aimed before Thanksgiving. Target valuation up to $2T (would beat SpaceX for biggest IPO ever).
But this IPO already slipped, it was supposed to be September (until a researcher quit and a run of safety incidents hit the news). Then October. Now November.
And the draft prospectus: 80b+ in losses in H1 2026, compute commitments that could reach $750B + a risk section saying the models could pose existential risk to humanity. Wall Street is a little bit nervous imho.
But I think Anthropic lists this year. OpenAI pushed its own IPO to 2027 so Anthropic gets the AI IPO spotlight to itself. Btw one investor told Axios the company has simply outgrown private rounds.
But I don't like the actual price at 87c, I would put limit orders at ~84c. Every «AI bubble» headlines or delay rumor shakes out a couple cents and exactly there we can get filled.
🚨 Anthropic could make its IPO filing public as soon as Friday, according to three people familiar with the plans.
The listing could top SpaceX’s June debut as the biggest IPO ever, making it a big test of how much investors still want AI.
Read more: yhoo.it/4dQLXso
Cooking the interview for you with a big trader from Polymarket
He has big experience in market making so I’m sure it will be very interesting for traders. Moreover the niche isn’t explored much and I want to show you the kitchen inside.
Soon…
Bizzi retweeted
Sometimes you have to carry uncomfortable drawdowns because other traders don’t have such confidence as you.
At these moments you must clearly understand what are you doing and for what. Confidence must be not from dumb beliefs but from your own research, skills and experience.
When you know that in the future you will win it’s so easy to see such red numbers. But if you have any struggles you need to answer yourself: am I right or I missed something?
Hope you will win brothers. Keep your mind cold.
Not the most obvious place to park capital on Polymarket as AI trader but I want to park it here anyway.
I'm sitting on NO side on Netanyahu as next Israeli PM.
Didn’t buy just Eisenkot YES because of Bennett, a rotation deal, some compromise name nobody's pricing…
Bibi’s bloc has led the seat average since early September. But it still sits in the low 50s and the opposition won't count the Arab parties, so they're stuck around 50 too.
Or Netanyahu will win?
Sometimes you have to carry uncomfortable drawdowns because other traders don’t have such confidence as you.
At these moments you must clearly understand what are you doing and for what. Confidence must be not from dumb beliefs but from your own research, skills and experience.
When you know that in the future you will win it’s so easy to see such red numbers. But if you have any struggles you need to answer yourself: am I right or I missed something?
Hope you will win brothers. Keep your mind cold.
Love that feeling when you've had to hold onto positions that were in the red, and now they're starting to turn positive.
The best melatonin for a good sleep is the green dashboard on your Polymarket account.
Hope we will see this monster next week and Google with Argon will have to slide down from the first place in the Text Arena leaderboard.
What are your thoughts on Fable 5.5?
Let’s talk about opportunity to make money on Fable 5.5.
Look at the market: Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
Book is super thin rn (haven't filled myself yet), but even a partial fill on my limits would be a nice entry.
Next Fable Model will be 5.5 (not 5.2, but it’s even better). Fable 5.1 holds 1510 elo for months and a 5.5 model in the Fable line means the strongest model Anthropic ships, period.
And context matters here too because they are in the pre IPO stage, right after Argon dropped so Anthropic has zero room to ship a flagship that lands mid table. The next Fable has to debut on top.
So the way I see it, 1510 is the floor. Yeah thin book and I don’t like it but hope my orders will get filled.
No way, my first perps ref on Polymarket. Idk why it’s so cool but I’m just happy.
Should I send him a prize on his account?
robinhood:0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571 is down almost 50% from early September and I think the Robinhood Chain flush is close to done.
Want to try take some long with low leverage.
Trade with me or against: polymarket.com/perps?c=01ccl…
Let’s talk about opportunity to make money on Fable 5.5.
Look at the market: Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
Book is super thin rn (haven't filled myself yet), but even a partial fill on my limits would be a nice entry.
Next Fable Model will be 5.5 (not 5.2, but it’s even better). Fable 5.1 holds 1510 elo for months and a 5.5 model in the Fable line means the strongest model Anthropic ships, period.
And context matters here too because they are in the pre IPO stage, right after Argon dropped so Anthropic has zero room to ship a flagship that lands mid table. The next Fable has to debut on top.
So the way I see it, 1510 is the floor. Yeah thin book and I don’t like it but hope my orders will get filled.
robinhood:0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571 is down almost 50% from early September and I think the Robinhood Chain flush is close to done.
Want to try take some long with low leverage.
Trade with me or against: polymarket.com/perps?c=01ccl…
🤝 Paid partnership
