15 years in markets, 6 of them - CRYPTO - ex-trader @bgcgroupinc - ex-adviser @blockchaincap Sharing alpha and helping you grow
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Joined May 2025
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Polmer retweeted
🚨 THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A BTC CYCLE ISN’T THE CRASH
It’s what happens before it
Every major move starts with the same problem - the market doesn’t believe it
At $69K, the crowd was positioned for another breakdown -> Bear Trap
Then BTC reclaimed the range -> Belief
And now?
Everyone expects the next leg up
That’s exactly why I’m watching the opposite scenario
I expect BTC to return into the FVG zone, shake out the late longs and create another Bear Trap
The point isn’t the drop itself
The point is what happens after everyone gets disappointed in the market again
On the chart, you can see how I expect this scenario to play out
When market will once again make most people believe that the bull run is over
I’d expect the next impulse to start
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
🚨 BTC TRAPPED BOTH LONGS AND SHORTS 🚨
Bitcoin is compressing and deviating inside the LTF range
But it just can’t break out of it
And the longer this consolidation lasts, the stronger the next move could be
Right now, I’m watching two scenarios:
SCENARIO 1
$83.7K breakdown -> the downside opens toward $82.3K
SCENARIO 2
$84.9K reclaim -> BTC gets back above the range highs and opens the way toward $87K
Right now, BTC is doing a pretty good job of frustrating both sides
Longs got trapped above the range
Shorts are waiting for the breakdown
Let's see
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BTC JUST SWEPT THE HIGHS AND GOT REJECTED
That move above $85.4K looked bullish at first
But BTC did exactly what I expect:
1. Took the range highs
2. Retested the zone
3. Got rejected straight back inside
That makes this look much more like a liquidity grab than a real breakout
Now I’m watching the other side of the range
If BTC keeps bleeding from here, the first target is the $82.8K low
And if that gets swept, I’ll be watching $81K-$82K for the next reaction
I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread)
All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me
The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change
I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot
Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner
🚨 BTC STRUCTURE IS CHANGING 🚨
Something feels different this time
For weeks, the market was absorbing every piece of FUD:
- Bad news
- CLARITY Act delayed
- Hawkish expectations
- Rate hikes
And BTC kept pushing higher
But now?
The reaction is completely different
The moment there’s even a hint of bad news, people are rushing to lock in profits while BTC is sitting near the highs
And that’s exactly why we’re seeing this correction
From here, I’m watching two scenarios:
$85K RECLAIMED
If BTC gets back above $85K and holds, the bullish structure is still alive and I’ll be watching for another push higher
$82K LOST
That changes the picture
BTC would be back inside the previous range, and I’d expect the correction to continue toward $74-75K
That’s where the major liquidity is sitting - and that’s where I want to see BTC before looking for longs
For now, I’m not chasing anything
Let the market show us what it wants first
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BTC STRUCTURE IS CHANGING 🚨
Something feels different this time
For weeks, the market was absorbing every piece of FUD:
- Bad news
- CLARITY Act delayed
- Hawkish expectations
- Rate hikes
And BTC kept pushing higher
But now?
The reaction is completely different
The moment there’s even a hint of bad news, people are rushing to lock in profits while BTC is sitting near the highs
And that’s exactly why we’re seeing this correction
From here, I’m watching two scenarios:
$85K RECLAIMED
If BTC gets back above $85K and holds, the bullish structure is still alive and I’ll be watching for another push higher
$82K LOST
That changes the picture
BTC would be back inside the previous range, and I’d expect the correction to continue toward $74-75K
That’s where the major liquidity is sitting - and that’s where I want to see BTC before looking for longs
For now, I’m not chasing anything
Let the market show us what it wants first
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
🚨 EVERYONE IS WAITING BTC FOR 75K 🚨
And that’s exactly what makes me think BTC might not go there straight away
$75K is now the obvious target everyone is watching for
That's why I want to see BTC reclaim the $90K area and squeeze higher
If we get that move, most of the market will stop expecting $75K
And that’s exactly when I’d want to see it happen
So here’s the full picture
1. The fake correction will bounce off $82k
2. We’ll start slowly climbing higher, there might even be a small flat range to fool everyone again
3. We’ll hit $90k
4. We’ll bleed down to $75k
Save this and check back later
I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread)
All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me
The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change
I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot
Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner
Polmer retweeted
🚨 JUST LOOK AT THE LIQUIDATION HEATMAP 🚨
We’ve got three clear liquidity clusters sitting below BTC right now
And honestly?
I’d be very surprised if we leave all of that liquidity untouched
At least two of these zones getting swept makes a lot of sense to me
What’s interesting is that the chart and sentiment are telling a pretty similar story:
- BTC has already pushed hard
- Everyone is getting bullish again
- Liquidity is building underneath
BINGO!
So for now, we're waiting for liquidity to be removed from the bottom
And then we'll talk about it
🚨 BE READY FOR A BTC CORRECTION 🚨
The setup played out pretty clean
What I like here is that BTC didn’t just pump out of nowhere
BTC swept the sell-side liquidity, shifted the structure and then pushed aggressively higher
Now we’re sitting at the highs, so chasing here makes little sense
What I’m watching next is the pullback into the demand POI below
If price retraces there and gives us a clean CISD confirmation, I’ll be looking for another move higher
If we go deeper, there’s another demand area below that I’ll be watching as well
For now - just watching
I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread)
All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me
The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change
I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot
Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner
Polmer retweeted
🚨 $BTC JUST BROKE OUT OF THE MEGAPHONE 🚨
Yesterday we were still trading below the upper boundary around $83.5K
Now BTC has pushed through it and printed a clean breakout toward $85K!
This changes the setup
The megaphone is no longer acting as resistance - the next key question is whether BTC can hold above the broken trendline and turn $83-84K into support
If that happens, the breakout can accelerate as trapped shorts are forced to cover
If BTC falls back below the upper boundary, we could be looking at another fakeout
For now, the breakout is confirmed. The retest is what matters next
I warned you about this yesterday
Anyone who saw this and opened positions now has a good upside
And this is just the beginning of a major trend-there will be plenty of opportunities like this
FOLLOW ME SO YOU DON'T MISS OUT!
🚨 BTC IS STILL TRAPPED INSIDE THE MEGAPHONE
Price has just been rejected from the upper boundary again
And this is exactly what makes this pattern dangerous
The structure has been built on REPEATED traps:
- Break above a previous high -> breakout buyers get trapped
- Break below a previous low -> shorts get trapped
And we’ve already seen multiple bull and bear traps form inside this structure
Yesterday BTC tested the upper side of the range again, reaching ~$82K before reversing
While the actual upper trendline sits around $83.5K
That level remains the key trigger
A clean breakout above the upper boundary could turn this entire structure into a violent upside expansion as shorts get squeezed
Until then, BTC is still playing inside the megaphone
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
ELON MUSK IS COOKING AGAIN
SpaceX is giving serious early-Tesla vibes
Here’s what caught my eye:
Tesla (2010):
1. Strong opening move
2. 70% dump
3. Recovery above IPO price
4. Accumulation in the yellow range
5. Dip below IPO price
6. Way to new ATH
SpaceX (2026):
1. Strong opening move - done
2. Pullback - done
3. Recovery above IPO price - done
4. Yellow range - in progress
At this pace, after this range, I wouldn’t rule out another serious flush - somewhere around $124
And that’s exactly the kind of dip I’ll be waiting to buy
This could be one of those entries we may NEVER get another chance at
Of course, once I see this scenario starting to play out, I’ll be the first to let you know.
So make sure you’re here
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
BTC JUST CLEARED MOST OF THE LIQUIDITY ABOVE
The push higher has been pretty aggressive
BTC moved through the upper levels, squeezed shorts and cleared a big chunk of the liquidity sitting above the current price
And now the picture starts looking different
Around $80K we still have a smaller liquidity cluster. If BTC loses this area, I’d be watching the next major pocket much lower
The bigger cluster sits around $74-76K
So if $80K gets broken and there isn’t enough demand to reclaim it, a move toward that lower liquidity zone looks completely realistic
The interesting part is that there isn’t much obvious liquidity left above
Shorts have already been squeezed
Now it's time for longs
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
$BTC JUST LOST THE STRUCTURE
Look at what happened before
1. BTC built an ascending channel
2. Pushed into the upper boundary
3. Printed a clear bull trap near $83K
4. Flush
Looks familiar?
Yes, because this pattern has formed again, with the high now at $82k
And now the channel has been broken to the downside
The structure is broken again
The first level I’m watching is $71K
If BTC loses it, $65K becomes the next major support, followed by $58K
And if the entire move develops like the previous setup, the $50K demand zone becomes the area where I’d expect the market to start looking for a stronger reaction
No need to predict the entire move
For now, the key is simple:
Broken structure -> lower levels -> watch how price reacts
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BTC COMPRESSING BEFORE THE NEXT BIG MOVE
BTC is currently forming a falling wedge during uptrend
Price is gradually squeezing between two descending trendlines after the strong move up
For me, the key here isn’t just the pattern itself, but where it’s forming
If BTC breaks above the upper trendline and holds, the next area to watch could be $84-90K
But there’s another scenario
BTC could first sweep lower toward $72-74K, take the liquidity, and then use that area to start the next move higher
So I wouldn’t rush to guess the direction here
Let’s see which side BTC takes first - then we build the plan around it
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
🚨 BEAR MARKET IS CLOSE TO END 🚨
Yeah, I know - we’ve seen this chart a hundred times already
But look where we are right now
The 365-day bearish phase is almost complete, with roughly 3 weekly candles left
And the interesting part is what historically comes after it:
1064 days of upside
The cycle structure has been pretty damn consistent:
1064D UP -> 365D DOWN -> 1064D UP
So if this pattern stays intact, we’re not waiting for some distant “bull market” anymore
We’re literally sitting at the transition point
Three candles left
I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread)
All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me
The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change
I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot
Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner
Polmer retweeted
$SPX AT THE SAME BUBBLE ZONE AGAIN
STOP and LOOK at this chart
It’s the S&P 500 divided by M2 money supply - basically, the market’s value relative to the amount of money in the system
Two major bubbles topped in almost the exact same zone:
- Dot-com (2000)
- AI bubble (2026)
And what do we have?
25 years later, we’re back at the same area
And there’s more
The 2007 Subprime top happened significantly lower - yet the market still went on to lose roughly half its value
Right now, price is sitting inside a historical distribution zone
A zone that has never really been held for long
At the same time, the market is still pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a move toward 8K
So yes, there’s still room to push higher
But this is exactly why we’re watching the reaction here
If the market can reclaim and hold this zone, the structure changes
If it fails again, history gives us a pretty interesting reference point for what can happen next
Not saying the top is in
Just saying this chart deserves your attention
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!
Polmer retweeted
$BTC IS TESTING A KEY RESISTANCE
BTC is still trading below the $78K-$82.5K resistance zone
For now, this looks more like a retest from underneath than a confirmed reversal
A weekly close back above the zone would change the structure significantly
Until then, I’m watching for another rejection and continuation lower
This reaction will tell us a lot about what comes next
I'll warn you
Be sure to FOLLOW ME not to miss on updates
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BITCOIN IS PERFECTLY FOLLOWING WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION PATTERN
While retail traders rush to call a market bottom, on-chain metrics suggest the real $BTC accumulation phase could still be getting underway
Current price action aligns with a classic multi-stage accumulation roadmap over the next 6 to 9 months:
Step 1 -> Overhead resistance test near $80k–$83k
Step 2 -> Liquidity sweep down into $58k–$62k support (Spring Phase)
Step 3 -> Accumulation base building & gradual markup phase
Step 4 -> Breakout and reclaim above $85k resistance
Step 5 -> Macro expansion reaching $98k in Q1–Q2 2027
I think we can expect one final liquidity sweep down into the $58k–$62k demand zone before the next major bull expansion
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
🚨 BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM REJECTED AT THE 50-WEEK MA
Both $BTC and $ETH are struggling to break above their 50-Week moving average ceilings as major macroeconomic catalysts unfold
Yesterday on September 15, the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, eliminating one of the market's biggest legislative catalysts
Today on September 16, all eyes shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference
On September 18, the Bank of Japan delivers its policy decision, where any hawkish tilt risks unwinding currency carry trades
Sep 15: CLARITY Act Failed
Sep 16: Fed Rate Decision
Sep 18: BOJ Policy Meeting
With the 50-Week MA holding firm as overhead resistance across both assets, we could expect continued downside pressure if central banks deliver a hawkish surprise
Bulls need a full weekly close above the 50-Week MA before any sustainable recovery can take shape
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM REJECTED AT THE 50-WEEK MA
Both $BTC and $ETH are struggling to break above their 50-Week moving average ceilings as major macroeconomic catalysts unfold
Yesterday on September 15, the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, eliminating one of the market's biggest legislative catalysts
Today on September 16, all eyes shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference
On September 18, the Bank of Japan delivers its policy decision, where any hawkish tilt risks unwinding currency carry trades
Sep 15: CLARITY Act Failed
Sep 16: Fed Rate Decision
Sep 18: BOJ Policy Meeting
With the 50-Week MA holding firm as overhead resistance across both assets, we could expect continued downside pressure if central banks deliver a hawkish surprise
Bulls need a full weekly close above the 50-Week MA before any sustainable recovery can take shape
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
🚨 CRYPTO FAILS ITS FIRST MAJOR LEGISLATIVE TEST IN THE SENATE
The US Senate just voted against advancing the CLARITY Act, effectively shutting down hopes for major crypto legislation passing in 2026
While the market absorbs this setback, two high-stakes macro catalysts hit the wire next:
> Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (94% priced-in rate hike)
> House Committee Vote on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Bill
Because a rate hike is already expected by Wall Street, the real market risk lies in Kevin Warsh’s press conference and whether he signals further tightening
At the exact same time, all eyes shift to the House vote on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill:
House Passes SBR Bill -> bullish buffer for crypto -> absorbs hawkish Fed guidance
House Fails SBR Bill -> back-to-back legislative rejections -> risk-off market sell-off
If crypto suffers two legislative rejections in 48 hours while the Fed stays hawkish, odds lean toward a sharp volatility spike to the downside
Prepare your risk for a wild 24 hours across the markets
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
Polmer retweeted
🚨 THIS IS HOW INSTITUTIONAL SMART MONEY ACTUALLY TRADES THE MARKET
Most retail traders spend years searching for secret indicators or perfect technical formulas
The reality is far simpler.
Institutional algorithms focus on a single variable:
WHERE MASSIVE CLUSTERS OF FORCED RETAIL ORDERS ARE SITTING
Large funds face an execution challenge that small retail traders never experience:
To enter or exit hundreds of millions of dollars without crashing the price, institutions require massive counterparty liquidity
When smart money wants to buy, they need a wave of forced sellers
When smart money wants to sell, they need a wave of forced buyers
Retail traders supply that exact liquidity at obvious chart levels
This is why smart money engineered the market structures we see every single day:
> Liquidity sweeps above range highs and below range lows
> Break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHOCH) shifts
> Unfilled price gaps (FVGs) and order block retests
> Equal highs and equal lows engineered to bait breakout traders
> Session high/low liquidity raids during London and NY opens
> Quasimodo (QML) setups and Wyckoff accumulation springs
> False breakout bull traps and bear traps
Every single one of these technical setups functions as a trap for forced orders
A triggered stop-loss isn't just an exit line; it immediately transforms into a market order for institutional fills:
> A stop-loss trigger converts into guaranteed execution liquidity
> A breakout push lures retail into buying the exact peak
> A liquidation cascade forces leveraged positions to sell into smart money bids
Insiders don't view charts the way retail does:
> Retail sees a solid support floor -> Insiders see millions of sell-stops waiting underneath
> Retail sees a breakout resistance line -> Insiders see buy-stops ready to be filled
> Retail sees high market volatility -> Insiders see a completed liquidity sweep
Once you grasp this framework, trading stops being about guessing the next candle
It becomes about identifying WHERE THE NEXT LIQUIDATION CASCADE MUST OCCUR
Stop placing your stop-loss at the exact same obvious level as the rest of the herd
Save this and bookmark it. You will regret not following me earlier
Polmer retweeted
CLARITY ACT VOTE FAILED
$BTC just lost the $76K local support
With the catalyst gone, $70K is now the level I’m watching
$BTC IS RUNNING OUT OF SUPPORT
The old $79.5K support has now turned into resistance
At the same time, $78K is trying to hold as local support, but buyers are already struggling to defend it
A clean break below $78K would likely send BTC toward $76K first
Lose that, and I’m watching $70K -> $62K as the next major levels
For me, this isn’t about the noise around every candle
The range is tightening, and the next break should tell us a lot
GET READY!
Polmer retweeted
🚨 GOLD IS REJECTING AT $4,600 AS THE MACRO THESIS SHIFTS
Gold ($XAU) just printed its third consecutive bull trap at $4,600, with each relief rally topping out at a progressively lower high
At the same time, the broader macroeconomic backdrop has flipped completely
Markets entered the year expecting multiple rate cuts, but sticky inflation now has traders pricing in potential Federal Reserve policy tightening instead
Without cheaper money fueling the rally, Gold is losing its primary macro tailwind
This lower-high structure points toward an initial slide down to test the $3,800–$4,000 support zone
If that initial level fails to hold, odds lean toward a deeper macro drawdown extending into the $3,200–$3,400 cycle bottom accumulation floor
Rushing into minor relief bounces carries heavy risk while higher timeframe distribution remains active
Keep a close eye on the $3,800 support zone as this macro unwind develops
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
🚨 GOLD IS SELLING OFF WHILE A WAR IS STILL HAPPENING
Nobody wants to hear this, but here's the truth:
Wars are gold's best friend - uncertainty, safe haven demand, inflation fear
Iran escalation hit -> gold ran $500 on the fear
War is still going -> gold is already giving it back and dumping
When an asset can't hold gains on its strongest catalyst - the move is done
> Rates at 4.5% - gold pays zero contrary to bonds. Every month investors hold gold over treasuries it costs them
> Turkey was buying for years. Flipped to selling - the main buyer became the main exit
> Dollar holding strong - gold and USD have been inverse for 50 years. That's not changing
> Every 40%+ gold run in history corrected 20-40% before a real bottom
Late summer makes it worse - institutions go quiet, liquidity drops, crowded longs have nobody to sell to
My lean: $2,800-$2,900 before this finds a floor
Consider this thesis wrong if gold closes a week back above $3,250. That flips the picture
Remember, I've called the silver top, called the oil collapse and called SpaceX drop before it happened
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BREAKING
TRUMP'S WHALE IS ABOUT TO GET FULLY LIQUIDATED ON HIS $96.6M $ETH LONG
HE IS JUST $49 AWAY FROM LIQUIDATION, WITH $ETH AT $2,476 AND LIQUIDATION NEAR $2,427
ONE SMALL DUMP COULD COMPLETELY WIPE HIM OUT!
Polmer retweeted
🚨 ETH INVALIDATED THE BEARISH SETUP 🚨
We just got the move I wanted to see
ETH dipped below the long-term trendline - then immediately reclaimed it
That’s a false breakdown - just to spite all the bears
And the bigger picture is interesting:
The same ascending structure has been holding since 2022
If ETH keeps respecting it, I’m watching main tarhet at $10k+
Now we wait to see if ETH gives us this breakout
I'll warn you
BE SURE TO FOLLOW ME!
🚨 ETH IS BUILDING THE NEXT LEG 🚨
Pay attention to the chart
We’ve already seen this movie once
ETH spent weeks ranging sideways around $1,900 before breaking out and expanding higher
Now we’ve got the same type of compression around $2,500
The difference? We’re already holding above the previous breakout area
That tells me sellers haven’t managed to drag price back into the old range
So I’m not expecting ETH to explode straight up from here
I’m watching this range develop first
If we keep holding $2,400-$2,500 and finally reclaim $2,560, the next expansion can take us toward $3,000
And once we’re above that, I’ll be watching the $3,400-$3,600 zone
I'll be sure to let you know when we start moving
Don't forget to follow me so you don't miss out on this
Polmer retweeted
🚨 BITCOIN JUST PRINTED A WEEKLY BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN
Bitcoin has just closed a Weekly Bearish Engulfing candle, with sellers completely swallowing the previous week's gains
Historically, this exact weekly candlestick signal has triggered major market pullbacks throughout this cycle
Early 2026 saw a weekly bearish engulfing spark a -30.8% dump, while the May rejection led to another -25.3% drawdown
Now that the third weekly bearish engulfing has confirmed around $81,000, market structure points to a similar -25% correction unfolding
If this fractal repeats, the path of least resistance leads toward a downward flush into the $56,173 target zone
Until buyers reclaim key resistance, downside pressure remains in full control
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
🚨 TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP TESTS CRITICAL BREAKOUT LEVEL
The total crypto market cap is attempting to print its first higher high since the market peak, pushing right into the $2.71T resistance zone
However, price action currently remains just a liquidity sweep until buyers can deliver a full weekly candle close above the line
Confirming a weekly close above $2.71T would mark a major market structure shift, opening up a broader bull market expansion
If resistance holds and price fails to close above, we could see a rejection back into the range toward lower support levels
Don't rush into late positions until the weekly candle close confirms the breakout
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
Polmer retweeted
BTC IS STARTING TO LOOK FAMILIAR
We’re sitting near $77K after getting rejected from the $82K area
What catches my attention is the structure behind this move
BTC has already made similar rallies around $98K and $83K - both ended with a bull trap and another leg lower
This time, we’re seeing the same type of recovery into resistance
If $82K remains a ceiling, I think the market gradually starts pricing in another distribution phase
That puts $69K on my radar first, with $58K=$60K as the deeper support zone
I’m not saying the move has to repeat perfectly
But until BTC proves otherwise, the similarities are too clear to ignore
FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!