Wintermute

Most EV analysis covers who's winning. Very little covers why the losses exist, what they actually mean, and which companies are being misread by the market. Spent weeks going through filings, Investor Day presentations, and building scenario models. Sharing the most surprising findings — one per day. Full research package follows, including scenario models with breakeven timing, dilution analysis, and stock price implications. $LCID $F $GM $STLA

#SapphireChallenge I picked up another 400 $LCID shares, lowering my effective average by 74¢. Hopefully last week's bounce continues so I can get back to selling calls while closing the gap to my basis. Slow slog, but the premium engine keeps running while we wait for Lucid’s turnaround plan to kick in.

NVIDIA DRIVE's suite of technologies can be confusing. I completed quite a few iterations between Copilot and Claude to fine-tune and produce this infographic. $LCID nvidia.com/en-us/solutions/a…

#SapphireChallenge More shares were assigned on ITM short $LCID puts this week. I haven't sold calls lately since conditions did not favor it. But I still maned to increase my holdings to 10,390 $LCID shares and lower the effective average to $24.34.

I can see it now. Invariably, on every significant Lucid post, it used to be: "But can it access the Tesla charging network?" Then it was: "But can it drive itself?" Now it will be: "But can it fly?" Which will be oddly satisfying since they are all equally meaningless questions. $LCID

I guess it's really true. The new Tesla Roadster sucks. Let's see what makes it to production. caranddriver.com/photos/a741…

The sales decline of 6.7% from 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q3 was report as a Lucid problem. But was it? Why is context almost always left out when it comes to hyping negative news for Lucid? coxautoinc.com/insights/q3-2… $LCID

Congratulations to Rivian & Lucid for still growing sales in a brutal US BEV market. Absent R2 sales, Rivian and Lucid would be about the same. This underscores how much is riding on the Cosmos for Lucid. $RIVN $LCID

#SapphireChallenge I gained 900 $LCID shares over the past two weeks through short put assignments. That helped lower my effective average to $25.67 on 9,690 shares. Running the options wheel strategy on a stock that is declining can seem like one step backwards for every two forward. But the step backwards is what funds those two forward steps without adding fresh capital.

Lucid Zeus, after six years, is still the power and efficiency king! $LCID

#SapphireChallenge $LCID’s decline this year has been brutal—about 61% through September 18. I haven't posted lately since my tracked effective average was $27.68 on August 1 and remains unchanged despite a few trades. Recently, the position has looked stagnant because I haven’t forced option trades when the premium didn’t justify the risk or tradeoff. But zooming out tells a different story: • $8,135.66 in net option premium YTD, after fees and commissions • 2,000-share net increase from assignments • Tracked average improved from about $34.33 on 6,790 shares to $27.68 on 8,790 shares. That premium isn’t abstract to me. It was enough to cover the Lucid Air lease monthly payment and goes a long way towards my current Gravity GT payment. I, of course, use it to improve the economics of my LCID position. But my point is that it "could" pay for a Lucid lease. For the few minutes per week I spend managing these trades, that is meaningful to me. I generally prefer selling puts because they better align with my bullish outlook. I use calls selectively, but I don’t sell them merely to create activity. The objective is to improve the holding without unnecessarily giving up the upside I still believe exists when Gravity gains in popularity, Uber/Nuro and Bolt collaborations progress, and the higher-volume Midsize program powered by Atlas drive units improve fixed-cost absorption. None of this erases the decline. It simply shows that a difficult holding can potentially be improved over time without selling it off or abandoning the original thesis. I can’t control the chart. I can keep improving how I carry the position.

Fascinating!