Are we here for the money or the tech?
Joined May 2020
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Cryptonomist retweeted
I'm seeing a lot of posts about AURA price predictions and how @bulktrade might be an opportunity, like @FabianoSolana posts, since he's been talking about Bulk for a while now, today I want to share my thoughts with you
How much could 1 AURA REALISTICALLY be worth?
I've been looking at the numbers lately, and I think Bulk is currently one of the most interesting opportunities in the perp dexs space, especially when you compare your cost with the potential return at TGE
Much better than other platforms I've personally tried, such as RiseX, QFEX, Arcus, Variational and TXflow
Here's how I'm looking at it
First, a couple of things we know from the team:
< Min 30% of genesis airdrop (100% available from day one, with no vesting or lock-up period)
< Total AURA are expected to be 60–70M (24m now)
With these two numbers, we can already start putting together some valuations without having to assume a crazy FDV (it's pointless to set a base scenario of >150m fdv, it's better to remain realistic and in line with current stats)
Let's say Bulk launches at a 50M FDV, with 70M AURA points distributed and 30% of the supply allocated to the airdrop
That would put the theoretical value of 1 AURA at around $0.21 (u can see the different scenarios in the image from the aurabulk.xyz)
And tbh I'd already be pretty happy with that outcome
My avg cost per AURA is currently <0.02, so even at this relatively conservative valuation, I'd be looking at more than a 10x on my costs
Obv this isn't the actual worst-case scenario. Bulk could struggle to maintain its current metrics, volumes could decline, or the project might not even make it to TGE. In that case, the points could end up being worth absolutely nothing
I'm fully aware of that risk, but considering the potential return and how the team has been executing so far, it's a bet I'm personally comfortable taking (always DYOR)
Now, the part I find even more interesting is how cheap it can actually be to gain AURA (trade naturally, not artificially just to earn points)
Based on my estimates and current platform stats, you can currently earn around 250 AURA for every $50k in taker volume
Assuming the $0.21 valuation we discussed earlier, that's $52.50 in theoretical airdrop value against $17.50 in taker fees (0.035% of $50k)
So you're looking at roughly $35 in net theoretical value for every $50k traded, assuming you manage your exposure with DN positions and excluding funding, slippage and other execution costs
And the numbers get even more attractive when you start looking at TradFi pairs
Taker fees are 50% lower, meaning the same $50k in volume would cost just $8.75 in trading fees. On top of that, there's an additional 50k AURA allocated to an exclusive Gauntlet pool, with the eligible pair changing every week.
Ofc, the actual amount of AURA you earn depends on how much competition there is for those rewards, but the combination of lower fees and additional incentives makes these markets particularly interesting to farm
And all of this is without even factoring in the additional points from maintaining OI or other incentives like the League Cash Rewards, which have already netted me $230 so far
If you manage your positions properly, keep your directional exposure hedged and optimize your cost activity around the incentives, the effective return on your capital could be considerably higher than what the basic volume calculations suggest
That's why I'm so bullish on Bulk; It's not necessarily about expecting some absurd valuation at launch. It's about the fact that, even with fairly conservative assumptions, the potential return relative to your cost is already pretty attractive
I genuinely struggle to find another platform offering a better combination of costs, potential airdrop value and upside, although that could obviously change as more participants join and rewards get diluted
I think this represents one of the most obvious asymmetric opportunities in the current airdrop landscape
The main question isn't whether 1 AURA can be worth $1 or more. It's whether Bulk can deliver a successful TGE and sustain a valuation where the current cost economics make sense (and even at 50M FDV, the math already looks pretty good to me)
Keep BULKing guys
*If you found this post useful and decide to give Bulk a try, I'd really appreciate you using my ref link 🫶
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
I'm seeing a lot of posts about AURA price predictions and how @bulktrade might be an opportunity, like @FabianoSolana posts, since he's been talking about Bulk for a while now, today I want to share my thoughts with you
How much could 1 AURA REALISTICALLY be worth?
I've been looking at the numbers lately, and I think Bulk is currently one of the most interesting opportunities in the perp dexs space, especially when you compare your cost with the potential return at TGE
Much better than other platforms I've personally tried, such as RiseX, QFEX, Arcus, Variational and TXflow
Here's how I'm looking at it
First, a couple of things we know from the team:
< Min 30% of genesis airdrop (100% available from day one, with no vesting or lock-up period)
< Total AURA are expected to be 60–70M (24m now)
With these two numbers, we can already start putting together some valuations without having to assume a crazy FDV (it's pointless to set a base scenario of >150m fdv, it's better to remain realistic and in line with current stats)
Let's say Bulk launches at a 50M FDV, with 70M AURA points distributed and 30% of the supply allocated to the airdrop
That would put the theoretical value of 1 AURA at around $0.21 (u can see the different scenarios in the image from the aurabulk.xyz)
And tbh I'd already be pretty happy with that outcome
My avg cost per AURA is currently <0.02, so even at this relatively conservative valuation, I'd be looking at more than a 10x on my costs
Obv this isn't the actual worst-case scenario. Bulk could struggle to maintain its current metrics, volumes could decline, or the project might not even make it to TGE. In that case, the points could end up being worth absolutely nothing
I'm fully aware of that risk, but considering the potential return and how the team has been executing so far, it's a bet I'm personally comfortable taking (always DYOR)
Now, the part I find even more interesting is how cheap it can actually be to gain AURA (trade naturally, not artificially just to earn points)
Based on my estimates and current platform stats, you can currently earn around 250 AURA for every $50k in taker volume
Assuming the $0.21 valuation we discussed earlier, that's $52.50 in theoretical airdrop value against $17.50 in taker fees (0.035% of $50k)
So you're looking at roughly $35 in net theoretical value for every $50k traded, assuming you manage your exposure with DN positions and excluding funding, slippage and other execution costs
And the numbers get even more attractive when you start looking at TradFi pairs
Taker fees are 50% lower, meaning the same $50k in volume would cost just $8.75 in trading fees. On top of that, there's an additional 50k AURA allocated to an exclusive Gauntlet pool, with the eligible pair changing every week.
Ofc, the actual amount of AURA you earn depends on how much competition there is for those rewards, but the combination of lower fees and additional incentives makes these markets particularly interesting to farm
And all of this is without even factoring in the additional points from maintaining OI or other incentives like the League Cash Rewards, which have already netted me $230 so far
If you manage your positions properly, keep your directional exposure hedged and optimize your cost activity around the incentives, the effective return on your capital could be considerably higher than what the basic volume calculations suggest
That's why I'm so bullish on Bulk; It's not necessarily about expecting some absurd valuation at launch. It's about the fact that, even with fairly conservative assumptions, the potential return relative to your cost is already pretty attractive
I genuinely struggle to find another platform offering a better combination of costs, potential airdrop value and upside, although that could obviously change as more participants join and rewards get diluted
I think this represents one of the most obvious asymmetric opportunities in the current airdrop landscape
The main question isn't whether 1 AURA can be worth $1 or more. It's whether Bulk can deliver a successful TGE and sustain a valuation where the current cost economics make sense (and even at 50M FDV, the math already looks pretty good to me)
Keep BULKing guys
*If you found this post useful and decide to give Bulk a try, I'd really appreciate you using my ref link 🫶
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
Cryptonomist retweeted
BULK weekly update 💪
+5,732 AURA
+$47.11 from League Cash Reward
The next Gauntlet will be revealed tomorrow, the same day stocks pairs are scheduled to go live
Wouldn't be surprised if the Gauntlet is tied to the launch 👀
Keep BULKing frens
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
BULK weekly update 💪
+5,732 AURA
+$47.11 from League Cash Reward
The next Gauntlet will be revealed tomorrow, the same day stocks pairs are scheduled to go live
Wouldn't be surprised if the Gauntlet is tied to the launch 👀
Keep BULKing frens
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
Really interesting article on @bulktrade's architecture and the advantages it already offers, but especially what it could unlock in the future.
Its portfolio margin system is genuinely impressive. Being able to hedge correlated positions with significantly less collateral is a huge advantage in terms of capital efficiency.
And the potential gets even more interesting if BULK manages to bring spot, perps, options and prediction markets under the same risk engine.
But as promising as all this sounds, I still have a few questions.
First, will this actually be enough to attract users?
How many traders really need this level of capital efficiency, and how many simply care more about liquidity, spreads, fees and having more markets to trade?
And how quickly can BULK expand its offering to make the most of its architecture?
There's also the question of how defensible this advantage really is.
What happens if competitors like Lighter implement similar risk-management features?
Lighter already offers crypto and TradFi perps, spot trading, binary options and multi-asset margin. It also has a strong advantage in trading costs, with zero fees on regular spot and perp orders for Standard accounts.
Of course, these aren't identical systems, but it's hard to imagine competitors standing still.
Another thing I'm curious about is how BULK's risk engine will perform under extreme market conditions. How well will those margin discounts hold up when correlations suddenly break down?
Don't get me wrong, I genuinely like what BULK is building. I've been using it since launch and have accumulated a pretty sizeable AURA bag, so if anything, raising these concerns is going against my own interests.
But I think it's important to stay critical, even when you're invested in a project. I'm just not convinced that having better technology automatically translates into greater adoption.
Ultimately, what matters is whether those technical advantages are valuable enough to make traders switch exchanges and, more importantly, stay.
Either way, all this competition is great for us users.
Especially after the TGE, when incentives become less effective at attracting activity, exchanges will have to compete more on the quality of their products.
And that should mean better execution, more markets, greater capital efficiency and more opportunities for everyone.
Really curious to see how this plays out.
Cryptonomist retweeted
Another week of trading on @bulktrade 🫡
+7K AURA in the bag and still holding onto Challenger Tier
I still think Bulk is pretty underrated as a perp dex. Execution and liquidity have been solid so far, especially considering it's been live for less than two months
That said, I'd love to see more trading pairs added, particularly TradFi markets
The real challenge now is gaining traction. Despite the promising start, TVL and avg daily trading volumes haven't seen much growth since launch
It's still early, of course, but I'd like to see those numbers start picking up
I have high expectations for the team. Let's see if they can deliver
Another week of trading on @bulktrade 🫡
+7K AURA in the bag and still holding onto Challenger Tier
I still think Bulk is pretty underrated as a perp dex. Execution and liquidity have been solid so far, especially considering it's been live for less than two months
That said, I'd love to see more trading pairs added, particularly TradFi markets
The real challenge now is gaining traction. Despite the promising start, TVL and avg daily trading volumes haven't seen much growth since launch
It's still early, of course, but I'd like to see those numbers start picking up
I have high expectations for the team. Let's see if they can deliver
Cryptonomist retweeted
Today is Saturday, which means: AURA distribution 👀
This Week's Stats:
< 229k volume (almost entirely taker order)
< joined the Challenger tier (top 25)
< $86 earned from the League Cash Reward
< +3774 AURA
Good week trading on @bulktrade
Today is Saturday, which means: AURA distribution 👀
This Week's Stats:
< 229k volume (almost entirely taker order)
< joined the Challenger tier (top 25)
< $86 earned from the League Cash Reward
< +3774 AURA
Good week trading on @bulktrade
Cryptonomist retweeted
How's it going?
Quick update on what on the projects I've been focusing on 👇
- @arcus_xyz
Top 250 in S0
Not a big fan of how the team has been operating lately, but I can't ignore the momentum they're building
If they keep this up, it could be a good sign for the future value of the points
- @bulktrade
Top 50
They're doing well so far, but unlike Arcus, they still need to gain more traction. Apart from OI, most of the metrics have stayed pretty much the same since launch
Let's see if the Challenger Series can bring in some fresh users and get things moving
What are the best PERP DEX to farm rn?
The answer comes down to one thing:
How early are you?
This is where the money is made
Once everyone is farming the same exchange, the opportunity usually becomes much less interesting
That is why the two I'm focusing on are:
1. BULK - @bulktrade
- A new perp DEX built on Solana.
- They raised $8M from @6thManVentures, @robotventures, @wintermute_t and others, with @toly participating as an angel
- 30% genesis airdrop CONFIRMED
The important part is the timing
BULK is still in its pre-mainnet phase and AURA is already being distributed weekly. Mainnet preparations are now in their final stages (prolly next week)
And there is a very good reason to get access before launch:
People who participated in the pre-launch deposit receive new access codes every week, depending on their deposit tier
Users who arrive after that start with zero; to earn just one additional access code through trading, you need to generate $1M in volume
If you want exposure before mainnet, the pre-deposit is still open
👉 early.bulk.trade/deposit?ref…
2. Arcus — @arcus_xyz
Arcus was built by the team behind dYdX in partnership with @RobinhoodApp and runs on Robinhood Chain.
Spot trading is already live. Perps are in beta and access is still being rolled out in cohorts
That is exactly why I want to be positioned now rather than after access becomes broad
👉 app.arcus.xyz/ref/1001
Those are my two highest-conviction farms atm
I would rather spend my time on platforms where access is still constrained and the farming is still forming than compete for increasingly diluted points on the most obvious trades
@variational_io is going to be a great drop, but it's definitely overcrowded, and at this point, there's no point in trading there anymore
@extendedapp used to be a good pick, but with the team's delays, the reduction in weekly points and projected low fdv, it doesn't make much sense to stick with them anymore
How's it going?
Quick update on what on the projects I've been focusing on 👇
- @arcus_xyz
Top 250 in S0
Not a big fan of how the team has been operating lately, but I can't ignore the momentum they're building
If they keep this up, it could be a good sign for the future value of the points
- @bulktrade
Top 50
They're doing well so far, but unlike Arcus, they still need to gain more traction. Apart from OI, most of the metrics have stayed pretty much the same since launch
Let's see if the Challenger Series can bring in some fresh users and get things moving
What are the best PERP DEX to farm rn?
The answer comes down to one thing:
How early are you?
This is where the money is made
Once everyone is farming the same exchange, the opportunity usually becomes much less interesting
That is why the two I'm focusing on are:
1. BULK - @bulktrade
- A new perp DEX built on Solana.
- They raised $8M from @6thManVentures, @robotventures, @wintermute_t and others, with @toly participating as an angel
- 30% genesis airdrop CONFIRMED
The important part is the timing
BULK is still in its pre-mainnet phase and AURA is already being distributed weekly. Mainnet preparations are now in their final stages (prolly next week)
And there is a very good reason to get access before launch:
People who participated in the pre-launch deposit receive new access codes every week, depending on their deposit tier
Users who arrive after that start with zero; to earn just one additional access code through trading, you need to generate $1M in volume
If you want exposure before mainnet, the pre-deposit is still open
👉 early.bulk.trade/deposit?ref…
2. Arcus — @arcus_xyz
Arcus was built by the team behind dYdX in partnership with @RobinhoodApp and runs on Robinhood Chain.
Spot trading is already live. Perps are in beta and access is still being rolled out in cohorts
That is exactly why I want to be positioned now rather than after access becomes broad
👉 app.arcus.xyz/ref/1001
Those are my two highest-conviction farms atm
I would rather spend my time on platforms where access is still constrained and the farming is still forming than compete for increasingly diluted points on the most obvious trades
@variational_io is going to be a great drop, but it's definitely overcrowded, and at this point, there's no point in trading there anymore
@extendedapp used to be a good pick, but with the team's delays, the reduction in weekly points and projected low fdv, it doesn't make much sense to stick with them anymore
For anyone who needs them 👇
ARCUS Invite codes:
app.arcus.xyz/ref/1001
M0NGSB
1Y27JO
2139I8
0QOJA2
DT8K9C
BULK Invite codes:
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
BULK-E9U-5BU
BULK-SRG-XNK
BULK-XHF-9U2
BULK-RP2-MSA
BULK-EMY-2XW
BULK-HNG-G87
BULK-MBX-6DJ
BULK-77Z-H7E
BULK-62T-KWU
BULK-CBB-U9Q
BULK-GRY-EH8
BULK-MS3-MU7
BULK-3BG-EVU
BULK-5P5-5JM
BULK-PHN-YSR
BULK-TV6-979
BULK-5NW-J2A
BULK-7TF-CCZ
BULK-RH9-P35
BULK-SWA-5T9
BULK-C9U-N6X
BULK-QH5-CXQ
BULK-H6A-R3J
BULK-P85-T59
BULK-Y6H-Q9T
BULK-724-KEJ
BULK-ZGX-D3E
BULK-HRE-5H6
BULK-R6B-QRV
BULK-XCR-X3K
BULK-4GW-GDZ
75
Cryptonomist retweeted
+4100 AURA this week on @bulktrade
Diamond I'm coming
Are you BULKmaxxing too?
Weekly codes:
app.bulk.trade/ref/ITTK060UB…
BULK-5JM-YDC
BULK-S92-6MB
BULK-V79-27Y
BULK-QY7-6MM
BULK-GAM-D5C
BULK-T6U-ZRP
BULK-E24-JTP
BULK-PTB-B67
BULK-XE7-U8V
BULK-M9W-4P5
BULK-PSQ-R6W
BULK-5P4-98C
31
Arcus points are finally live, and as expected, they have retroactively rewarded all users who have used the platform since the beginning
They've seen significant growth in the last few weeks, especially after the API points leak, but I think it's still a good time to get started, since I don't think it will lose momentum
The Robinhood Chain will likely be one of the most widely used, so investing in one of its flagship products could turn out to be a winning strategy
app.arcus.xyz/ref/1001
Since it's invite-only, here are the codes:
- JN5AW4
- M9YTVP
- JNMWDN
The time has come. Arcus Points are live.
Season 0: already settled and ranked. Connect your wallet to see where you landed.
Season 1: begins now.
arcus.xyz/blog/introducing-a…
2
219
Cryptonomist retweeted
30%+ airdrop allocation (100% available at TGE), and you still aren't trading on it? What are you waiting for?
I've high expectations for @bulktrade, especially that they’ll become the leading venue on Solana, a chain that has become incredibly popular across many categories in DeFi but not in one of the main narratives of these years: Perp Dexs
BULK is next up
>An exchange with a unique offering
SPAN margining
Industry first sidecar network and leaderless consensus
>Users benefit from upside
Stakers, Validators, MMs, Traders - All upside exposure
>A 30%+ airdrop allocation (might have to do 33 now)
Have said this is the minimum, could go higher
No doubt Day 1 was rough
Now top 5 execution on Day 10
What does day 100 look like?
Cryptonomist retweeted
Another busy week of trading on @bulktrade has come to an end
Competition is low rn, but it won't stay that way for long. Intrigued to see what the Bulk Challenger Series S1 will be
*Invite-only, codes in the comments if you didn't joined
