Here’s Why Experts Keep Being Wrong About the Future open.substack.com/pub/persua…
The Illusion of Social Mobility
Imagine a society where every family’s material standard of living doubles over a generation, but everyone remains in exactly the same relative socioeconomic position. Has that society failed? According to conventional measures of relative Social Mobility, there has been no progress at all.
Something is seriously wrong with that conclusion.
frompovertytoprogress.substa…
David Labaree retweeted
My new blog post is an essay I wrote recently and tried to publish in several different venues, without success. So I'm publishing it here on my blog, where editorial standards are a bit more flexible.
After spending many years decrying the rampant credentialism in the modern structure of schooling, I'm beginning to think about its possible upsides. Yes, it undercuts academic learning by focusing instead on the accumulation of grades, credits, and degrees, and it also subverts meritocracy by rewarding form over content.
But consider some of the benefits of credentialism both for students and for society. It helps students gain a degree of autonomy within the prison-like confines of the hyper-controlling system of schooling that they must endure for so many years of their lives. And it also benefits society, by encouraging students to exercise creativity, develop initiative, and learn how to operate independently within a rule-bound organization without directly challenging its norms. Credentialism offers both a jail break and a course in entrepreneurship.
davidlabaree.com
There’s an old saying among sociologists, that civilization is subject to constant invasion by barbarians, in the form of children. In order for an institution to persist over time, the incoming cohort of young people must be persuaded to reproduce it.
josephheath.substack.com/p/r…
The Green Revolution transformed Asian agriculture, ended recurring food shortages, and laid the foundation for Asia’s extraordinary economic miracle.
frompovertytoprogress.substa…
My new blog post is an essay I wrote recently and tried to publish in several different venues, without success. So I'm publishing it here on my blog, where editorial standards are a bit more flexible.
After spending many years decrying the rampant credentialism in the modern structure of schooling, I'm beginning to think about its possible upsides. Yes, it undercuts academic learning by focusing instead on the accumulation of grades, credits, and degrees, and it also subverts meritocracy by rewarding form over content.
But consider some of the benefits of credentialism both for students and for society. It helps students gain a degree of autonomy within the prison-like confines of the hyper-controlling system of schooling that they must endure for so many years of their lives. And it also benefits society, by encouraging students to exercise creativity, develop initiative, and learn how to operate independently within a rule-bound organization without directly challenging its norms. Credentialism offers both a jail break and a course in entrepreneurship.
davidlabaree.com
My new blog post is an essay I wrote recently and tried to publish in several different venues, without success. So I'm publishing it here on my blog, where editorial standards are a bit more flexible.
After spending many years decrying the rampant credentialism in the modern structure of schooling, I'm beginning to think about its possible upsides. Yes, it undercuts academic learning by focusing instead on the accumulation of grades, credits, and degrees, and it also subverts meritocracy by rewarding form over content.
But consider some of the benefits of credentialism both for students and for society. It helps students gain a degree of autonomy within the prison-like confines of the hyper-controlling system of schooling that they must endure for so many years of their lives. And it also benefits society, by encouraging students to exercise creativity, develop initiative, and learn how to operate independently within a rule-bound organization without directly challenging its norms. Credentialism offers both a jail break and a course in entrepreneurship.
davidlabaree.com
Many colleges now advertise prices approaching or exceeding $100,000 a year. Even UMass Amherst costs roughly $40,000 for an in-state student. If you’re interested in rolling with the Tide — and you’re not from Alabama — the University of Alabama will charge you roughly $60,000. These prices are crazy. How are most people supposed to afford them?
But here’s the strange thing: Most students don’t pay those sticker prices. Nationwide, 35 percent of students at public four-year institutions pay the full list price; only 17 percent do so at private four-year colleges. Even at UMass Amherst and the University of Alabama, only 22 percent and 14 percent of all entering students (including both in-state and out-of-state students) pay the full amount.
globecollegetown.substack.co…
David Labaree retweeted
Something strange is happening with self-reported height among men: There aren’t enough 5’11” men, and there are too many 6’0” men. Hmmm…
stevestewartwilliams.com/p/e…
David Labaree retweeted
The cheap green lie
You are told that solar and wind are cheap
But you need near-100% backup when no sun or wind, paying for two systems
Data for 2025 shows that
cramming in more solar and wind makes electricity overall more and more costly
Sources:
Electricity prices, households and industry, 2025
iea.org/data-and-statistics/…
Solar and wind generation, electricity use and consumption weights
iea.org/data-and-statistics/…
Solar and wind for countries without IEA 2025 data
ember-energy.org/data
Electricity trade partners, plus industry prices for Norway, Albania, Iceland and Kosovo
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/en…
US industry price
eia.gov/electricity/annual
Australia, IEA 2021 prices updated with official price indices
abs.gov.au/statistics/econom…
South Africa industry price
eskom.co.za/wp-content/uploa…
Taiwan industry tariff
taipower.com.tw
Egypt industry tariff
egyptera.org/en/TarrifAug202…
Tunisia tariffs (archived copy, the STEG site is unreachable)
web.archive.org/web/20250614…
Azerbaijan industry tariff
regulator.gov.az/en/istehlak…
2025 tariff changes applied to IEA 2024 prices
Pakistan: nepra.org.pk
Thailand: erc.or.th
Ghana: purc.com.gh
Paraguay: ande.gov.py
Kazakhstan: stat.gov.kz/en/industries/ec…
GlobalPetrolPrices 2025 averages for 18 countries, read from archived 2025 pages
globalpetrolprices.com/elect…
web.archive.org
Sri Lanka 2025 tariff changes
pucsl.gov.lk/end-user-tariff…
Indonesia solar and wind estimated from official 2025 capacity
esdm.go.id/id/media-center/a…
Statista 2025 averages for China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Singapore, Peru, Argentina and South Africa (data from GlobalPetrolPrices)
statista.com/statistics/1369… (business prices worldwide)
statista.com/statistics/1461… (household prices worldwide)
statista.com/statistics/1173… (Latin America business)
statista.com/statistics/1123… (Latin America households)
statista.com/statistics/1373… (China business)
statista.com/statistics/1372… (Mexico business)
statista.com/statistics/1372… (Mexico households)
statista.com/statistics/1617… (South Africa households)
Until the 700s, Scandinavians barely appear in European history. Then they suddenly reach Paris, Constantinople and America. Why?
Three things:
1) Rome fell and left a void in naval power in the North Sea. England was a backwater, and the continent was busy with land wars. That left the Scandinavians free to move.
2) Better farming techniques, including iron tools, grew Scandinavia's population, but there was little land, and it could never be sold outside the family. Soon, many Scandinavians were growing up landless and futureless.
3) The richest men had several wives, so most low-status men had no access to wealth or women.
There was lots of sea, and nobody else controlled it. So young men took to it to raid.
The lesson: In general, try to avoid having lots of incels with no future prospects, unless you have a way to channel them.
substack.com/@tomaspueyo/not…
What are we researching for?
AI may increasingly provide us with truths. It may even grant us knowledge. So what is left for us? This: I want to understand things for myself. Stuff I find interesting. I want to have some grasp of how things work, how they fit together, and what reality is like. That understanding is more than memorizing formulas or lists of facts. What the alien machines extract from the knowledge mines still means nothing to me until I personally do the hard work of understanding it. Of course that is true for human-generated knowledge too—the library is filled with our ideas and it sits inert and waiting for me to grapple with their words. That is where scholars have always gone to learn. As long as we care for understanding, even if for ourselves alone, there is something meaningful for us to do. That the machines cannot take away.
📷
hilariusbookbinder.substack.…

















