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$BTC Liquidity below has been swept during the weekend. Most liquidity now sits above in this event heavy week. If BTC can hold on to $80K during this and next week I think we will see the capital that derisked start coming back into the market which should make prices drift back up. Things that would change this would be massive misses on earnings by all the big tech companies but I don't think that is likely. There's just a lot of headwinds right now which investors have a hard time looking through. 1-2 weeks from now a lot of that will be out of the way, whether the desired result is good or not, it brings certainty back in the market.

Big week(s). FOMC & Big tech earnings. Combined with midterms next week. Going to be a very event driven market for some time.

The first move after big news is usually the emotional one. The second move is where the market actually decides what it thinks.

About 20 of the top 50 coins have outperformed $BTC in the past year. This ratio has remained roughly the same for the past 2 years now. Selective few outperformers and the rest underperform. Especially outside of the top 50 coins. The last time this was truly in "altseason" territory was back in 2021. But I think the days of "Just buy any alt and it performs up to par" are very much over. Even in a raging bull market you still need to be somewhat selective and rotate in time. 2024/2025 was a good example of that.

This is what the chain ranking by Total Value Locked (TVL) looks like these days. $ETH clear leader because of the major DeFi protocols still having the gross of their TVL stationed there. Base considerably and still a chain that will make a comeback at some point I do believe. I assume Coinbase will try to do what Robinhood is doing with their Robinhood chain to try and stimulate growth and adoption. But even now, Base is ranked #2 at 6.9% of all TVL captured. But the Dex Volume per chain (second image) might be what is most leading for how much trading/investing activity the chains see. Here $SOL is the clear winner for a while due to its speed and low fees relative to ETH. But this chart is very volatile as Robinhood captured 32% on its peak day last month. So if anything this chart shows how quick volumes and users come and go based on the hype of the month. A single meme coin doing well can completely shift this chart.

$BTC With a flush during the weekend just like last week. Price tapped the .618 from the recent leg up and swept the local lows again. Now price is back above the ~$80K local range low. That is the key area to watch in the week ahead. All markets have been very shaky last week ahead of the big earnings, FOMC, midterms & geopolitical headlines. Lots of uncertainties, a lot of them will be "gone" or over with in 1-2 weeks from now. That is the key timeline to watch.

Most people only check their thesis when price goes against them. If you’re not also questioning it when price goes your way, you’re not really reviewing anything. You’re just looking for reassurance. When price improved but fundamentals diminished (or are more in line), it might be a great time to take profit on your play.

$BTC Has meanwhile moved back to its 2 year moving average price after deviating below it for some time. In my previous tweet I mentioned how Bitcoin tends to. historically trade at good high timeframe value when it is below that level. The big question is usually how long it remains below that area. In this case it didn't take a long time because since then, price moved up from $63K to $87K at its recent high in just 3 months. Good reason why I always like to keep looking at these high timeframe "indicators" to determine when BTC is at historically good value levels.

If there is a chart that shows $BTC and crypto are maturing, it is this. This shows the implied volatility on Bitcoin options. As you can see, with some heavy spikes every now and then aside, this is clearly trending lower over time. Throughout bull and bear periods, volatility is diminishing and that is a fact. It is a shame we don't have 2017 or 2021 data on here because that would dwarf whatever is going on here now.

Pretty mixed image of the performance of crypto assets. This has been this way for years now. Asset selection is as important as ever. Too many coins to pump everything at once. So the majority bleeds lower unless it can: A. Catch a narrative or B. Sees meaningful revenue/metric improvement and can do things like buybacks etc with it.

The best weeks in trading are often the ones where you did very little but avoided every bad decision. Nobody posts about those. They still compound. There's plenty of outsized returns in this market, the challenge is to not lose a lot during the bad environments while still catching the big swings up.

$BTC Pretty much flat in Q4 so far. Generally, Q4 sees big moves. It is the quarter where cycle tops and bottoms are set and where big breaks occur. Volatility will happen into the last two months of the year.

$ETH Remains stuck in its $2350-$2550 range. Easiest is to just put alerts on both of these levels and then reassess from there. In between will just me more chop like we've been seeing.

$BTC Back to the local range low where it has traded at for a lot of the past two weeks. Lost both the 4H 200MA/EMA as neither could hold on the way down. Crypto in itself still showing a lot of relative strength to stocks lately. Whether that's actual strength or just lagging we will see soon enough. $80K is the level to hold for the bulls. $85K & $87K are the levels to watch above. Don't get chopped up in the middle.

Stablecoin supply growing is one of the more underrated signals in this market. Capital sitting on the sidelines in crypto doesn’t stay on the sidelines forever.

$BTC Has been having a hard time around this $83K level. Price technically made a bullish market structure break but we have failed to see any substantial follow through so far. I think any larger drawdowns upon losing $80K should see us visit $72K-$75K which is a solid long term value area. Above, bulls need to break and hold above $85K-$87K and we can aim for $92K+ and beyond. As mentioned earlier, lots of uncertain events in the coming 1-2 weeks. Generally price action and direction should get clearer afterwards. No shame in just protecting your capital, time and energy and waiting for good spots to strike. Wherever and whenever that might be.

$ETH Very indecisive against $BTC. Now sitting right at its Daily 200MA which it has traded at for some time. ETH's relative weakness has also made it so most alts underperformed BTC during this sideways chop. Always one of the main indicators of altcoin strength relative to BTC which is why it is good to watch.

$BTC FOMC coming up, end/start of the month and earnings season. All in the next 1-2 weeks. All these usually make for a choppy market environment. Afterwards I think price action should be cleaner again. Liquidity sits at the local highs and lows. Big cluster below $80K and then above $87K. Those are also the levels I am waiting for at this point. Not interested in trading anything in between really unless it's a super solid setup.

$BTC Local liquidity swept above $84K, shorts taken out and bulls failed to hold the breakout level. Now back in the middle of the range in between the 4H 200MA/EMA. Shared in my free telegram yesterday how I closed active long positions at $84K+ because things were starting to look a bit shaky. Happy with that decision. Market isn't ready for a decisive move either direction and this is not a place where I want to take on new positions so just taking it chill until next week at least.