Half of cybersecurity Twitter is asking you to chill. The other half wants you alarmed. Here's a primer: Team Chill: "X has barely ever/never happened, resource needs are too high & brittle, so chill & focus on basics" Often people with deep career experience, a lot of it wise & we have much to learn from them. But some of the heuristics they use to grade threats are indexed to a stale cost model. For example, difficulty & complexity of attacks just don't mean the same thing that they did 5 years ago. Not for attribution (complex no longer = must be a gov!), and not for risk (my thing is obscure & complex & therefore safer than the popular thing). At the same time, radically new things are happening around AI and cybersecurity and these folks are trying to understand a radically new thing through deep experience. Team Threat: "X is now possible, so this IS a threat" Often AI native ppl or practitioners seeing how LLMs are shifting what we thought was possible. And so many of them are drawn to stuff that is shiny and/or stuff that was historically in the low probability, high impact quadrant. But suddenly the impossible is...foreseeable? Something that felt like an impossible resource spend or hyper esoteric proof of concept is now... scaffolded on $24 dollar zero days with fewer resources & more messy parameters. So the challenge is: bringing those old, wise intuitions to bear even as some parts of the world are changing underfoot, fast. Right now, so much of the discourse is prospective & anticipatory. Team chill is probably right about the median attack, and Team Threat is probably catching tail distribution but may be wrong on how soon it is coming. It's boring to say truth is in the middle, but I think truth will probably emerge the more we are collectively working on emerging attacks & problems with good evidence & transparency. This is also why why the recent threat reports (e.g. Anthropic's Sept 2026 monster threat report) matter so much. We desperately need empirical grounding to help suss out blind spots.