$NXT +25% on the day. Not bad. Despite the challenges facing the solar industry, Shugar & team keep executing. This marks 9/9 quarters since the company spun out that it’s beaten EBITDA expectations (8/9 for sales). Some scattered takeaways: - First trackerCo to offer 100% domestic content, & ahead of schedule. Good to see customer demand here & differentiator in the short term (easier for customer) (The math roughly works out that 100% tracker content can get a developer >60% of the way to qualifying for a tax credit that can effectively cover the entire cost of a tracker) - Mgmt hand waved a bit at the incredible gross margins (think FX was more than they let on). But seems low 30s% GM is a realistic structural expectation. Maybe this is pressured in out years when/if U.S. mix declines - Wish they simply gave a backlog #, rather an amount rounded to the nearest 1/2 billion $. Would stop the SS from wasting time on questions like the % to be realized to back into a (still wrong) more precise figure. - Claimed stable project timings, but disappointing no one seriously pushed on the oft cited project delays/push outs & what the bottleneck is (some combo of permitting, financing, interconnection queue, & transformer/switching equip) - Cash build is enormous: $700M and no means to return to shareholders until early CY ‘26 due to spin terms. Concerned this might incentivize dumb M&A in the next 12mo. So, need faith in mgmt. At least the CFO used the “b” word (buyback). Ok. What now? The shares popped- is there anything left here? Well: - Perhaps keeping with their beat & (occasionally) raise M.O., mgmt has only commented on FY ‘26 (3/31) to say it’s a “growth yr” (vs long calling FY ‘25 a “double digit” growth yr) - Estimates are just that, but there are several sources (S&P, NREL, EIA, etc) that point to solar PV growth in the 20%+ range for next few yrs & tracker growth mid-teens+ - So, assuming NXT can maintain mkt share (appears it can) w/ only very LSD px increases (if any), that’s a mid-teens growth rate. More realistically assume organic is ~10% and M&A contributes the rest. - This algo puts FY ‘27 revenues just shy of $3.8B - Gross margin will step down given the one off favorable dynamics, but hold it in the low 30% range - NXT has a good handle on opex (~8% of sales) - All in for FY ‘27: slight drop (due to GM) in EBITDA margins to 24.5%, >$900M (7.5x mult) - Low capex, no debt, & min WC means FCF conversion is excellent at 70%+ - FY ‘27: 650M+ of FCF (10x mult), w/ buyback + dilution = >$3 FCF/share… And the company still has >$800M of net cash (!) even after assuming $400M of cumulative M&A A flat EBITDA multiple (10x) = a high teens IRR But! For a best in class, secular trends beneficiary business, w/ a ~LDD topline, mid 20s% EBITDA margins, capital light, excellent FCF generation, zero debt & a silly amount of cash- What’s a fair multiple? 12x = >$80 stock (8% of which is BS cash) & high 20s% IRR

If anyone in midtown wants to grab a drink/coffee next Wednesday or Thursday (8th/9th) before earnings ramps up*- Shoot me a DM *Of course, we all know real earnings don’t start until March (ie, shitCos)

That time of year. Any good “stealth buyback” finds out there on the 10-K to Proxy share count delta?